Chemical Weather Forecasting: a New Concept and Methodology of Two-Way Integrated Meso-Scale Modelling
Authors: Baklanov A.A.
During the last decade a new field of atmospheric modelling – the chemical weather forecasting (CWF) – is quickly developing and growing. However, in the most of the current studies and publications this field is considered in a simplified concept of the off-line running chemical transport models with operational NWP data as a driver. A new concept and methodology considering the chemical weather as two-way interacted meteorological weather and chemical composition of the atmosphere is suggested and discussed. The on-line integration of mesometeorological models and atmospheric aerosol and chemical transport models gives a possibility to utilize all meteorological 3D fields in the chemical transport model at each time step and to consider feedbacks of air pollution (e.g. urban aerosols) on meteorological processes/climate forcing and further on the chemical composition. This very promising way for future atmospheric simulation systems (as a part of and a step to Earth System Modelling) will lead to a new generation of models for meteorological, environmental and chemical weather forecasting. The methodology how to realise the suggested integrated CWF concept is demonstrated on example of the European Enviro–HIRLAM integrated system. Importance of different feedback mechanisms for CWF is also discussed in the paper.
Tags: chemical weather forecasting; feedbacks mechanisms; off-line and on-line chemical transport modeling; two-way interacted meso-scale modelling
- Baklanov, A. (1988) Numerical modelling in mine aerology, Apatity: USSR Academy of Science, 200 pp. (in Russian).
- Baklanov, A., A. Gross, J.H. Sørensen (2004) Modelling and forecasting of regional and urban air quality and microclimate. J. Computational Technologies, 9, pp. 82–97.
- Baklanov, A., U. Korsholm, A. Mahura, C. Petersen, A. Gross (2008a) Enviro–HIRLAM: on-line coupled modelling of urban meteorology and air pollution. Advances in Science and Research, 2, pp. 41–46.
- Baklanov, A., P. Mestayer, A. Clappier, S. Zilitinkevich, S. Joffre, A. Mahura, N.W. Nielsen, (2008b) Towards improving the simulation of meteorological fields in urban areas through updated/advanced surface fluxes description. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 8, pp. 523–543.
- Baklanov, A. and U. Korsholm (2007) On-line integrated meteorological and chemical transport modelling: advantages and prospective. In: ITM 2007: 29th NATO/SPS International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution. Modelling and its Application, 24-28.09.2007, University of Aveiro, Portugal, pp. 21–34.
- Chenevez, J., A. Baklanov, J.H. Sørensen (2004) Pollutant transport schemes integrated in a numerical weather prediction model: Model description and verification results. Meteorological Applications, 11(3), pp. 265–275.
- COST–NetFAM (2008) Integrated systems of meso-meteorological and chemical transport models/ Baklanov, A., A. Mahura, R. Sokhi (eds), Materials of the COST–728/NetFAM workshop, DMI, Copenhagen, 21–23 May 2007, 183 pp. Springer (in press). Available on: http://www.cost728.org.
- COST–WMO (2007) Overview of existing integrated (off-line and on-line) meso-scale systems in Europe/Baklanov, A., B. Fay, J. Kaminski, R. Sokhi. Joint Report of COST728 and GURME, May 2007. WMO–COST publication. GAW Report No. 177, WMO TD 1427. Available also from: http://www.cost728.org.
- Dickenson, R.E., S.E. Zebiak, J.L. Anderson, M.L. Blackmon, C. DeLuca, T.F. Hogan, M. Iredell, M. Ji, R. Rood, M.J. Suarez, K.E. Taylor (2002) How can we advance our weather and climate models as a community? Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 83, pp. 431–434.
- Grell, G.A., S.E. Peckham, R. Schmitz, S.A. McKeen, G. Frost, W.C. Skamarock, B. Eder (2005) Fully coupled “on-line“ chemistry within the WRF model, Atmos. Environ., 39(37), pp. 6957-6975.
- Gross, A. and A. Baklanov (2004) Modelling the influence of dimethyl sulphid on the aerosol production in the marine boundary layer. International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 22, pp. 51–71.
- IPCC (2005) IPCC Expert Meeting on Emission Estimation of Aerosols Relevant to Climate Change held on 2–4 May 2005, Geneva, Switzerland
- Kaminski, J., L. Neary, J. Struzewska and J.C. McConnell (2008) Multiscale Atmospheric Chemistry Modelling with GEM–AQ. In: Integrated systems of mesometeorological and chemical transport models, Materials of the COST–728/NetFAM workshop, DMI, Copenhagen, 21–23 May 2007, pp. 42–47. Springer (in press). Available on http://www.cost728.org.
- Korsholm U.S., A. Baklanov, A. Gross, A. Mahura, B.H. Sass, E. Kaas (2008a) On-line coupled chemical weather forecasting based on HIRLAM – overview and prospective of Enviro–HIRLAM. HIRLAM Newsletter, 54, pp. 1–17.
- Korsholm, U., A. Baklanov and J.H. Sørensen (2008b) Status and Evaluation of Enviro–HIRLAM: Differences between on-line and off-line Models. In: Integrated systems of meso-meteorological and chemical transport models, Materials of the COST–728/NetFAM workshop, DMI, Copenhagen, 21–23 May 2007, pp. 47–61. Springer (in press). Available: http://www.cost728.org.
- Korsholm, U. (2009) Integrated modeling of aerosol indirect effects – develoment and application of a chemical weather model. PhD thesis University of Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Institute and DMI, Research department.
- Korsholm, U.S., A. Baklanov, A. Gross, J.H. Sørensen (2009a) On the importance of the meteorological coupling interval in dispersion modeling during ETEX–1, Atmospheric Environment, DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.11.017 (available at ScienceDirect).
- Korsholm U, A. Mahura, A. Baklanov, A. Gross, C. Petersen, M. Bechmann (2009b) Aerosol–meteorology feedbacks on short time-scale in a convective case. Atmospheric Environment (submitted).
- Jacobson, M.Z. (2002) Atmospheric Pollution: History, Science and Regulation. Cambridge University Press.
- Jacobson, M.Z. (2005) Fundamentals of Atmospheric Modeling, Second Edition, Cambridge University Press, New York, 813 pp.
- Jacobson, M.Z. (2006) Comment on “Fully coupled ‘on-line’ chemistry within the WRF model,” by Grell et al., Atmos. Environ., 39, pp. 6957–697.
- Lawrence, M.G., Ø. Hov, M. Backmann, J. Brandt, H. Elbern, H. Eskes, H. Feichter, M. Takigawa (2005) The Chemical Weather. Envir. Chem., 2, pp. 6–8.
- Marchuk, G.I. (1982) Mathematical modeling in the environmental problems. Moscow, Nauka.
- Penenko, V.V., A.E. Aloyan (1985) Models and methods for environment protection problems. Nauka, Novosibirsk (in Russian).
- Uno, I. et al., (2003) Regional chemical weather forecasting system CFORS: Model descriptions and analysis of surface observations at Japanese island stations during the ACE–Asia experiment, J. Geophys. Res., 108 (D23), 8668, DOI: 10.1029/2002JD002845.
- Semazzi, F. (2003) Air quality research: perspective from climate change modelling research. Environment International, 29, pp. 253–261.
- Valcke, S., E. Guilyardi, C. Larsson (2006) PRISM and ENES: A European approach to Earth system modelling. Concurrency Computat.: Pract. Exper., 18, pp. 231–245.
- Vogel, B., C. Hoose, H. Vogel, Ch. Kottmeier (2006) A model of dust transport applied to the Dead Sea area. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 14, pp. 611–624.
- Watson, R.T. et al. (1997) The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability. Special Report for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
- Wolke, R., O. Hellmuth, O. Knoth, W. Schröder, B. Heinrich, E. Renner (2003) The chemistry-transport modeling system LM–MUSCAT: Description and CITYDELTA applications. Proceedings of the 26-th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution and Its Application. Istanbul, May 2003, pp. 369–379.
- Zhang, Y. (2008) Online-coupled meteorology and chemistry models: history, current status, and outlook. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, pp. 2895–2932.