In the paper was investigated the modern level and the main trends of air pollution level of formaldehyde in Ukraine cities. Were classified Ukrainian cities by the multiplicity exceeding of the maximum permissible concentration (MPC), the direction and intensity of time changes of concentrations of formaldehyde in the air of cities.
It is proposed a new approach to non-linear modeling and forecasting chaotic processes in hydroecological systems, which is based on the conception of compact geometrical attractor and neural networks (artificial intellect) algorithms. As an illustrative example of using the method, the dynamics of the nitrates concentrations in the Small Carpathians river’s watersheds in the Earthen Slovakia during 1969-1996 years is predicted.
An improved theoretical scheme for sensing temporal and spatial structure of the air pollution fields in the industrial city’s atmosphere is considered and applied to an analysis of the Odessa atmosphere aerosol component data. Effects of stochasticity and chaotic features in the dusty air pollution field structure are discovered on the basis of the correlation dimension approach to empirical data.
On the basis of previously developed models of neural network modelling it is studying a dynamics of neural networks with different types of input patterns and a problem of forecasting the spatial and temporal structure of the dusty concentration fields for the industrial city’s atmosphere as well as the rainfall intensity fields.
The theoretical basis’s of a new general formalism for an analysis and forecasting an impact of anthropogenic factors on the atmosphere of an industrial city are presented. It is developed a new compact general scheme for modeling temporal fluctuations of the air pollution concentration field temporal fluctuations ,based on the methods of a chaos theory.
It was considered peculiarities formation of low-level jet streams over the territory of the North-Western Black Sea and their connection with the presence of a weak winds at the ground surface.
We study the time distribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation index during1951-2010. It was found that the positive phase of this teleconnection pattern was dominant during the global warming and resulted in the significant increase in the number and extremity of drought in Ukraine. It was also revealed the significant relationship between changes in the indices of drought and North Atlantic Oscillation with the period of 2-3 years.
It was proposed the stages of energetic interaction for blockings and processes that are surrounding the anticyclone. The typical schemes for the conversion between different forms of energy during each stage.
There are presented the elements of an advanced non-stationary theory of the global mechanisms in the atmosphere low frequency processes, the Earth angle moment balance, teleconnection effects, and the radio-waveguides.
In this paper new synoptic analysis techniques in the production of specialized weather forecasts are considered. In particular, an approach towards using prognostic data from the most common numerical models combined with computational weather forecasting techniques is suggested for operational activities of a meteorological office serving aviation.
On the basis of wavelet analysis and multifractal formalism it is carried out an analysis of fractal structures in the turbulent processes (parietal pressure pulsations in a turbulent flow in the pipe).
The features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation influencing on forming of total ozone fields are shown. The statistically significant interactions periods between El Niño parameter, which is atmospheric pressure normalized difference between Tahiti and Durbin points and main components of total ozone fields are determined.
Comparative characteristics of the annual and seasonal rainfall regimes on the territory of Ukraine for the period up to 2030.Noted the expected overall increase in annual precipitation and the unevenness of their loss by seasons. Expected decline in rainfall in the summer in the steppe zone of Ukraine.
The article gives the comparative quantitative evaluation of the thermal conditions of soil at 0-20 cm with air temperature at the weather shack level. On the basis of information contraction the complex zoning of indicators of thermal resources in Odessa region in average scale for medium-loamy soils with 5 mezoareas is examined.
The influence of agrometeorological conditions on photosynthetic productivity of soya is under consideration in the paper. Net productivity of the photosynthesis of soya plants was determined by interphase periods of development.
The features of the use of satellite vegetation indices as the normalized vegetation index NDVI and normalized water index NDWI, in the empirical modeling of grain yields were considered. For areas of the steppe zone of Ukraine were built the linear regression models for the winter wheat yield, that uses as predictors the parameters derived from the basic vegetation indices – vegetation conditions index and proposed wet vegetation index. Also used the regional blocking index, which considering the atmospheric circulation conditions at the beginning of the growing season. Verification of the models showed a satisfactory prediction accuracy with sufficiently high of the lead time.
The article present the Southern Bug water quality evaluation near Pervomaisk city by different domestic methods. The domestic standards deficiencies in comparison with EU standards are shown. The method analysis in valid normative DSTU 4808.2007 document was carried out and its deficiencies were shown in this article. The domestic methods improvement recommendations of water quality evaluation are given.
Based on the water balance components.of a study of the external water exchange in the largest of the Dnieper reservoirs with the water year.
The article presented graphical and analytical dependences between hydrometeorological parameters in the area Kakhovka reservoir for determining the evaporation of its water surface during operation.
On the base of “climate-runoff” model main trends in change of water resources of Ukraine are established. In the investigation data of global warming scenario A1B (branche M10) are used. Isoline maps of precipitation-evaporation ratios, average long-term values of annual runoff and its changes are shown.
Proved and implemented design scheme to identify possible markers of water in the Khadzhibey Estuary under the simultaneous passage of spring floods and rain-induced floods of rare probability of exceedance in a long-term period.
It is conducted the schematized estimation of theoretical potential of the iributary rivers South Bug and Dnister of the Vinnytsia region.
It is carried out numerical modelling characteristics of the fluctuation temporal trends of changing nitrates concentrations in some catchments in a few regions of the Small Carpathians on the basis of the new chaos-geometrical approach combining the chaos theory and dynamical systems methods.
It is performed statistical processing the series of maximal runoff for rivers of the Dniester-Prut interfluves basin.
The article examines the scientific and methodological basis for the creation of calculation techniques necessary for normalization characteristics of maximum flow spring flood and rain floods rare probability of recurrence in the territory of the Black Sea Lowland.
Calculations of the spatial distribution of the suspended matter concentration and wave parameters in the coastal waters of the Black Sea near the Kuyalnik estuary were made.
The analysis of the features of water circulation in the Black Sea on climate data was carried. The annual average flow velocity and the water rate in the Black Sea were calculated by the dynamic method and the evaluations of the maximum and minimum the seasonal water flows were made. The periods of active development of dynamic processes in the waters of the sea and periods of weakening were established.
The relation among atmospheric processes, current system intensity and ocean level in the subtropical Pacific area is shown with the use of a sea level network. It was found that changes in intensity of a current system occur as a auto-oscillation process with a cycle duration from three to eight years and is associated with atmosphere-ocean interactions. The key point (trigger) is the achievement of a maximum value of the ocean level in the western tropical
Dynamics of time variations of the air pollutants (dioxide of nitrogen, sulphur etc) concentrations in an atmosphere of the ukrainian industrial cities (Mariupol) with using advanced non-linear analysis, prediction and chaos theory methods is studied.
On the basis of the theory of chaos ii is performed an advanced chaos-geometric analysis of time series of concentrations of sulphur dioxide in Gdynia (Gdansk region) and calculated spectrum of the correlation dimension, that confirms the chaos existence. Estimation of the predictability limit in a short-term forecast is given.
Within the refined 3-model model of kinetic processes there is quantitatively examined an effect of atmosphere kinetic cooling while passing powerful laser radiation through a mixture of CO2-N2-H2O atmospheric gases.
It is carried out numerical modelling fluctuate temporal trends for annual runoff (r. Danube) on the basis of a chaos theory methods. It is considered a short-term forecast model.
In the article main formaldehyde emissions sources in a big cities was analysed. Shown the temporal dynamics of average annual concentrations of formaldehyde in Kiev city, analyzed concentration of this pollutant in different part of the city and frequency of cases of maximum allowable concentration exceeding.
The method of calculation of the height of the atmosphere boundary layer and its internal layers, such as the surface, dynamic and convective ones, by means of the energy-balance model of the surface layer, which is developed for calculation of surface turbulent fluxes, is proposed. The standard meteorological data are used.
Based on eight-period of meteorological observations at meteorological stations Slavs’ke and five-day observations by snow way route for the period 1990 – 2010 years defines the main characteristics snow cover dates of creation and destruction, the height and duration of its occurrence, density, supply of water in the snow. The comparative analysis of the above-mentioned characteristics to the data Climate inventory Ukraine was made.
Spatial and temporal distribution of dry conditions in Ukraine for the period 2000-2013 was studied using the normalized difference vegetation index and vegetation condition index, which are the products of Earth satellite sensing. It was found the prevalence of spring droughts in all agroclimatic zones with a maximum of frequency and intensity in the eastern Steppe. A comparing of the crop yield of winter wheat and spring barley with anomalies of vegetation index showed significant crop reduction in the years when the value of vegetation index in April-June was less then the average.
The monthly air temperature zoning in the Northern Pacific has been obtained with the use of the Universal Cluster Iterative method. The proposed scheme has been verified from both physical and statistical points of view. The results showed the zonal distribution of monthly values over the Pacific Ocean, while meridional deviations were being occurred along the North America coast.
The integral transfers of different types of energy through the lateral boundaries for blocking anticyclone above territory of Europe are calculated and analysed.
The article describes the thermal regime change in Ukraine over the past fifty years and its features in 2013. Rank meteorological variables defined in 2013 and their anomalies over the past half-century in Ukraine and its regions. Established that an increase in air temperature in Ukraine is virtually certain. 2013 was the third warmest in rankings in the last 53. Feature of the thermal regime in 2013 are: high values of minimum temperature, long frost-free period, growing season and the summer season a large number of hot days and days with favorable conditions for the formation of atmospheric drought. While in the west it was the most arid in the north – the third in the rankings, losing in 2010 and 1996 years.
The comparative characteristics of the thermal regime of the air in Ukraine for the period until 2030 years are considered. Early onset dates transition temperature at 0, 5, 10 and 15 C in the spring is expecting. Later in the fall, the overall increase in average temperature, total temperature and their amplitudes.
The results of the research of the dynamic model block of winter hardiness formation by the plants of winter wheat in the Southern Steppe of Ukraine are presented, with the Odessa region as an example. The parameters of the model block of winter hardiness formation by the plants of winter wheat according to laboratory and field experimental observations of agrobiological indexes dynamics are identified. The model describes the process of hardening of winter wheat plants under the effect of agrometeorological conditions of autumn – winter period and can be used for forecasting of their wintering both for a particular field, and the Southern Steppe of Ukraine. The error between the calculated model values and the actual data obtained in the laboratory and field experimental observations on the date of ending of autumn vegetation is 7 %.
Considered changing agro-climatic conditions of grapes cultivation in the northern Black Sea region. The estimation of winegrapes phenology offset in the implementation of climate scenarios. Based on the model of grapes productivity forming was done assessment of the yield due to possible climate change.
Assessed the risk of damage to the grapes of different varieties of spring frost using conditional probability model. Calculations were carried out according to the five agro-meteorological stations wine-growing zone of Odessa region.
The article discusses the scientific and methodological approaches for creating a computational technique for determining the characteristics of the high flow of small rivers.
The dependence identified and presents for determining the water loses due to evaporation from the reservoirs of the Dnieper cascade on the basis of generalization of real morphological and hydrometeorological information.
On the most part of the rivers of Tyligul lagoon basin hydrometeorological observation are not organized. Existing series of data on Tyligyl river were transformed by water management, it is not possible to estimate the runoff characteristics with required accuracy. Characteristics of annual, minimum runoff and intra-annual distribution were calculated by “climate-runoff” model with using meteorological data.
The technique of determining the design characteristics of the spring floods and rain floods rare probability of exceedance for evaluate of influx of surface waters in the estuary Hadzibeevsky is substantiated.
The article is devoted to research the water quality of the Southern Bug in the point Vinnytsya city on the indicators oxidability (bichromate, permanganate oxidability, colourity, dissolved oxygen) and their statistic characteristics. Assessment of water quality was made by the method of environmental assessment on the ecological and sanitary categories. Using of probability curves was allowed to define the different levels of water’s quality probability.
In the article different eventual-difference charts are considered at the design of the unset turbulent diffusion of dredge in a water-course in the flat raising of task. The analysis of the got decisions is executed, the estimation of error of calculations is given and the initial parameters of model are optimized. Led recommendation for implementation of engineering’s calculations.
The estimated hydrological characteristics of rivers Zhytomyr region was clarified. The time limit of water flow cycles, each of which includes a dry and wet phase of varying duration was set. The significant variability of normal annual runoff in certain phases, and even periods was underlined. These studies recommended to take into account when determining the comparative time periods for water management, hydrochemical calculations and hydrological forecasting.
The effect of water vapor saturation deficit over the reservoir for typical years of its meteorological indicators based on the true hydrometeorological information for 55 years of operation of the reservoir was studied.
The article considers scientific-methodical approaches associated with substantiation duration of influx from the slopes during the formation of extremely high rain floods and spring floods.
Based on the results of microbiological surveys in winter 2002-2005, the analysis of the conditions of formation of the dominant groups of bacteria multitude of winter plankton communities. Established regular changes of the sizes of the various groups that are defined by the gradient of physico-chemical parameters of the complex, based on the direction of transport of water in the Kara Sea. Identified quantitative forms of communication that form the dominant population groups of bacteria for the winter season as a homogeneous set of environmental factors.
The general tendencies of long-term changes of the Black Sea density structure in the 20-th century are revealed on the basis of oceanographic data re-analyzis. Low-frequency variability of vertical stratification, horizontal density gradients and geostrophic circulation intensity is considered. External forcings exerted on the density structure and its significance are discussed.
Based on satellite data for the period 2005 – 2011 the following characteristics of vortices generated over the continental slope in the north-western and western parts of Black Sea were analyzed. A number of vortices generated by the term of their existence and intensive development were calculated. The front position and direction of water transfers in the most typical eddies were determined. Close relationship of eddy activity in the area that is foreseen with thermal state in winter and variability flow of the Danube.