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Year: 2016 / Issue: 18
References
- Title Page
- Velmiskin D.I., Limonov A.S., Pustovit T.M., Diachenco E.A., Buchinskaya I.V. Influence of macrostructure of the hydrometeors on a radar measurement of polarization-doppler weather radars
- Velmiskin D.I., Limonov A.S., Lavrinenkо U.V., Pustovit T.M., Buchinskaya I.V. Development of general structure of atmosphere radiosounding system in Ukraine
- Safranov T., Khokhlov V., Volkov A. Possible impacts of temperature changes on recreational and tourist activities in Ukraine’s regions
- Semenova I.G. An assessment of spatiotemporal distribution of drought in Transcarpathian region during the nearest perspective until 2050
- Palamarchuk Yu.O., Ivanov S.V., Ruban I.G. The digitizing algorithm for precipitation in the atmosphere on the base of radar measurements
- Hrushevskiy O.N., Yeshanu O.Ye., Mishchenko N.M. On structure of dynamic features of the lower layer of the atmosphere at low cloudiness
- Balabukh V.O., Zibtsev S.V. Impact of climate change on quantity and area of forest fires in the northern part of the black sea region of Ukraine
- Polevoy A.N., Bozhko L.Yu., Barsukova O.A. Photosynthetic productivity of spring barley under conditions of climate changes
- Polevoy А.N., Shabliy O.V. Radiation-and-temperature resources of the steppe zone in Ukraine under the climate change conditions in the period of up to 2050
- Lyashenko H.V., Soborova O.M. The dynamics of berries quality indicators of technical kinds of grapes during a ripening period
- Baisholanov S.S. Assessment of heat supply of vegetation period within the northern grain-seeding territory of Kazakhstan
- Lyashenko H.V., Kuznetsova Yu.O. Influence of forestry in the south of Ukraine on carbon dioxide control in the atmosphere
- Loboda N.S., Bozhok Yu.V. Assessment of water resources change of the Danube river in the XXI century under the scenario A1B using the model “Сlimate-Runoff”
- Melnyk S.V., Loboda N.S. Development of a calculation method for the suspended load in rivers of upper and central Dniester
- Adobovsky V.V., Sokolov E.V. Change of hydrological and morphometric characteristics of Kuyalnik liman after inflow of seawater
- Sakhnenko O.I. Results of calculation of wave-wind water dynamics at the Tiligul estuary
Papers
Possibility of determining models of structures of different hydrometeors and models of their reflectivity with regard to radio-waves was presented. To determine the scaling factor of size distribution of incident particles it is necessary to use horizontal reflective capability, all reflected features of signal can be used to define an average particle size of precipitation and dispersion coefficient. However, the most susceptible characteristics, namely, differential reflective capability and linear depolarization ratio should be chosen. Hence one has an appropriate algorithm processing of a reflected signal. Models of radio-waves reflectivity considering hydrometeors’ microstructure at different stages of their existence were developed to ensure a forecast of meteorological situation changes. The results demonstrate that the use of polarization Doppler meteorological radar stations significantly improve accuracy of assessment of danger caused by meteorological formations.
- Limonov A. S., Velmiskin D.I., Pustovit T. M., Dyachenko E. O., Buchinskaya I.V. Vìsn. Odes. derž. ekol. unìv.- Bull. OSENU, 2016, no. 20, pp. 142-149. (In Rus-sian)
- Gorelik A. G., Mel’nichuk Yu. V. DAN SSSR – Reports of the USSR Academy of Sciences, 1961, vol. 140, pp. 579-582. (In Russian)
- Sokol P. P., Logvin A. I. Nauchnyiy vestnik MGTU GA, 2010, no. 152, pp. 204-205. (In Russian)
- Gorelik A. G., Sterlyadkin V. V. Yzv. AN SSSR – Academy of Sciences of the USSR, 1990, no. 1, pp. 47-54. (In Russian)
- Sokol P. P. Nauchnyiy vestnik MGTU GA, 2010, no. 152, pp. 63-67. (In Russian)
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- Terminal Doppler weather radar (TDWR). A briefing paper. Federal Aviation Administration. USA, Boulder, 1988, p. 18. (In Russian)
- Pampel H. Discovery and supershort-term prognostication конвективных the phenomena, dangerous for an aviation. Novye tendentsii v gidrometeorologii [New trends in hydrometeorology]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1998, no. 4, pp. 70-83. (In Russian)
- Bezlova T. A. Meteorologicheskie avtomatizirovannye radiolokatsionnye seti [Meteorological automated radio-location networks]. Sankt-Petersburg: Gidrometeoizdat, 2002. pp. 332.
Temperature is one of the main meteorological parameters. It determines the weather and climatic conditions, and impacts on human activities. Weather and climate conditions (precisely air temperature) are the most important factors which affect natural and recreational resources and also stipulate recreational and tourist activities. The article discusses the possible impact of air temperature changes from 2021 to 2050 on recreational and tourist activities in Ukrainian regions. We have analyzed the data gathered by 85 observation stations which are located in various Ukrainian regions. The analysis was based on scenario due to average level of greenhouse gases emissions (medium climate change pattern) for 30 years (2021-2050). The coastal zone in North-western part of the Black Sea has one of the high level of recreational-tourism potential. The forecast in this region makes rather small increasing of the temperature in summer time. So, it has not significant influence to the present forms of recreation and tourism activities. The research indicates that changes in average annual, average summer and winter air temperatures according to the scenario will not significantly affect the possibility of summer recreational and tourism activities. Also climate changes will not affect sustainable development of recreation and the level of thermal impact on recreants (tourists) within Ukrainian regions. Following this climate change scenario we don’t anticipate significant deterioration of weather conditions for winter recreation and tourism activities, especially for the Ukrainian Carpathians.
- Skliar H. P., Karpenko N. M. Recreation and tourist attractiveness of region: environmental and investment aspects. Naukovyi visnyk Poltavskoho universytetu ekonomiky i torhivli – Scientific Bulletin of Poltava University of Economics and Tourism, 2012, no. 59, pp. 23-28. (In Ukrainian)
- Shevchenko O. H. Weather and climate factors impact on tourism industry. Heohrafiia ta turyzm – Geography and Tourism, 2012, vol. 23, pp. 35-41.
- Endler Ch., Matzarakis A. Climatic potential for tourism in the Black Forest, Germany. Winter Season Intrnational Journal of Biometeorology, 2011, vol. 55, pp. 339–351.
- Fomenko N. M. Rekreatsiini resursy ta kurortolohiya: [Recreational recourses and balneology]. Kyiv: The center of the scientific literature, 2007. 312 p.
- Vetrova N. M. Recreational features of region: environmental options. Ekonomika i upravlenie – Economics and Management, 2011, no. 3, pp. 21–24. (In Russian)
- Kuzyk S. P. Heohrafiya turyzmu [Geography of tourism]. Kyiv: Znannya, 2011. 271 p.
- Amiranashvili A. G., Matzarakis A., Kartvelishvili L. G. Tourism climate index in Batumi. Modern problems of using of health resort resources – collection of scientific works of international conference, Sairme, June 10-13, 2010, pp. 116-121.
- Mieczkowski Z. The tourism climate index: A method for evaluating world climates for tourism. The Canadian Geographer , 1985, vol. 29, рр. 220-233.
- The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2011. Beyond the Downturn. World Economic Forum. Geneva, Switzerland, 2011. – 531 p.
- Khodakov V. E., Sokolova N. A., Chernyi S. G. Vliyanie prirodno-klimaticheskikh faktorov na sotsialno-ekonomicheskoe i proizvodstvennye sistemy [The impacts of natural and climatic factors on social, economic and industrial systems]. Kherson: Grin D. S., 2012. 354 p.
- Gandin L. S. Ob’ektivnyi analiz meteorologicheskikh poley [Independent analysis of meteorological fields]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1963. 286 p.
- Didukh Ya. P. Environmental aspects of global climate changes: causes, consequences, action. Visnyk Natsionalnoi akademii nauk Ukrainy – Bulletin of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 2009, no. 2, pp. 33-44. (In Ukrainian)
- Sereda K. Izmenenie klimata (Ukraina): ozhydaniya, prog-nozy, perspektivy [Climate change (Ukraine): expectations, forecasts and prospects]. URL: http://awsassets.panda.org/downloads/kirill_sereda.pdf
- Ivanyuta S. P. Adaptatsiya do zmin v Ukraini: problemy i perspektyvy. Analitychna zapyska [Adaptation to changes in Ukraine: problems and prospects. Analytical description]. URL: http://www.niss.gov.ua/articles/2223/
- IS-ENES climate4impact portal. URL: http://climate4impact.eu
- Stepanenko S. M., Pol’ovyy A. M., Shkolnyy Ye. P. etc. Otsinka vplyvu klimatychnykh zmin na haluzi ekonomiky Ukrainy [Impacts assessment of climate changes for Ukrainian sectoral economy]. Odessa: Ekolohiya, 2011. 696 p. (Eds: Stepanenko S. M., Pol’ovyy A. M.)
- Beidyk O.O. Rekreatsiyno-turysts’ki resursy Ukrainy: metodolohiya ta metodyka analizu, terminolohiya, raionuvannya [Recreation and tourism resources of Ukraine: methodology and methods of analysis, terminology, zoning]. Kyiv: VPC «Kyivskyy universytet», 2001. 395 p.
The paper describes the features of spatiotemporal distribution of drought at long-time periods in Transcarpathian region under the projected temperature and precipitation regime in the period of 2020-2050. Analysis of temperature and moisture conditions was produced using the CORDEX climate modeling data for climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. It is shown that an increase of mean annual air temperature at the stations will occur mainly due to increasing of winter temperatures in both scenarios. The average annual precipitation sum will increase insignificantly, but will be observed the opposite trends in winter and summer precipitation. Evaluation of spatial and temporal distribution of drought using drought index SPEI showed that expected a general increase of the regional aridity during the studied period. Weak droughts will be prevail in both scenarios with amount about 7-11 cases per 31 years. At the same time, under the relatively mild scenario RCP4.5 the droughts are predicted more intensive, and under both scenarios the total number of moderate and severe droughts increases on time scales more than one year. The time course of dry and wet periods almost the opposite between scenarios, but in both scenarios is expected an increase of duration and intensity of drought episodes after mid of 2030s.
- Lipіns’kyi V. M., Dyachuk V. A., Babichenko V. M. (Eds.). Klimat Ukrainy [Climate of Ukraine]. Kyiv: Rajevs’kyi Publ., 2003. 343 p.
- Buchinskyi I. E. Zasukhi i sukhovei [Droughts and hot dry winds]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1976. 214 p.
- Semenova I. G. Otsenka prostranstvenno-vremennogo raspredeleniya zasukh na Ukraine v vegetatsionnyi period [An estimation of spatial and temporal distribution of drought in Ukraine during the vegetation period]. Trudy GGO im. A. I. Voeykova – Proceedings of Voeikov Main Geophisical Observatory, 2014, no. 571, pp. 135-147.
- Svoboda M, Fuchs B. A. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Global Water Partnership (GWP), 2016: Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices. Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP), Integrated Drought Management Tools and Guidelines Series 2. Geneva.
- Vicente-Serrano S. M., Beguería S., López-Moreno J. I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of Climate, 2010, 23 (7), pp. 1696–1718.
- Ovcharuk V., Semenova I., Tonkoshkura V. Hydrological drought in Transcarpathia. Abstract book of 26th IUGG 2015 General Assembly, 22 June – 2 July, 2015. Prague, the Czech Republic. HW04 Hydrological Change in Statistical Perspective, HW04p-105.
- IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324 (Eds: Stocker T. F., Qin D., Plattner G.-K, Tignor M., Allen S. K., Boschung J., Nauels A., Xia A., Bex A., Midgley P. M.).
- Semenova I. G. Prostorovo-chasovyi rozpodil posukh v Ukraini v umovakh maybutn’oyi zminy klimatu [The spatial and temporal distribution of droughts in Ukraine under the future climate changes]. Fizychna heohrafiya ta heomorfolohiya – Physical geography and geomorphology, 2015, no. 1 (77), pp. 144-151.
- Vicente-Serrano S. M., Beguería S., López-Moreno J. I., Angulo M., El Kenawy A. A new global 0.5° gridded data-set (1901–2006) of a multiscalar drought index: comparison with current drought index datasets based on the palmer drought severity index. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2010, 11 (4), pp. 1033–1043.
- Thornthwaite C. W. An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr. Revew., 1948, 38, pp. 55-94.
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- Giorgi F., Gutowski W. J., Jr. Regional Dynamical Down-scaling and the CORDEX Initiative. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2015, 40, pp. 467-490. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-102014-021217.
- Climate cadastre of Ukraine: standard climatic norms for the period of 1961 – 1990. Kyiv: Central geophysical observatory, 2006. (In Ukranian).
- Bates B. C., Kundzewicz Z. W., S Wu, Palutikof J. P. (Eds). 2008: Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 p.
- McEvoy D. J., Huntington J. L., Abatzoglou J. T., Edwards L. M. An evaluation of multiscalar drought indices in Nevada and Eastern California. Earth Interactions, 2012, 16, Paper no. 18. DOI 10.1175/2012EI000447.1.
There is an increasing demand for automated high-quality very-short-range forecasts and nowcasts of precipitation on small scales and at high update frequencies. Current prediction systems use different methods of determining precipitation such as area tracking, individual cell tracking and numerical models. All approaches are based on radar measurements. World-leading manufactories of meteorological radars and attendant visualization software are introduced in the paper. Advantages of the numerical modelling against inertial schemes designed on statistical characteristics of convective processes are outlined. On this way, radar data assimilation systems as a necessary part of numerical models are intensively developed. In response to it, the use of digital formats for processing of radar measurements in numerical algorithms became important. In the focus of this work is the developing of a unified code for digital processing of radar signals at the preprocessing, filtration, assimilation and numerical integration steps. The proposed code also includes thinning, screening or superobbing radar data before exploring them for the assimilation procedures. The informational model manages radar data flows in the metadata and binary array forms. The model constitutes an official second-generation European standard exchange format for weather radar datasets from different manufactories. Results of radar measurement processing are presented for both, the single radar and radar overlying network.
- Ivanov S., Palamarchuk J. Fine-scale precipitation struc-ture of a cold front and the problem of the representativeness error. Advances in Geosciences, 2007, vol. 10, pp. 3–8, doi:10.5194/adgeo-10-3-2007.
- Ivanov S., Palamarchuk J., Pyshniak D. Upscale feed-backs through microphysics fields at nesting domains of the MM5 model. Atmospheric Research, 2009, vol. 94, Iss. 4, pp. 726-735, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.03.006.
- Ivanov S., Palamarchuk J. Heat and energy fluxes in the convective cell behind a cold front. Advances in Geo-sciences, 2010, vol.25, pp. 71–77, doi:10.5194/adgeo-25-71-2010.
- Steinheimer M., Haiden T. Improved nowcasting of precipitation based on convective analysis fields. Advances in Geosciences, 2007, vol. 10, pp. 125–131, doi:10.5194/adgeo-10-125-2007.
- Mecklenburg S., Joss J., Schmid W. Improving the nowcasting of precipitation in an Alpine region with an enhanced radar echo tracking algorithm. J. Hydrol., 2000, vol. 239, pp. 46–68, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00352-8.
- Paulitsch H., Fuchsberger J.. FM94-BUFR encoding and decoding software library. API Documentation. OPERA document. 2012, 78 p. http://www.eumetnet.eu/sites/default/files/bufr_sw_apidoc.pdf
- Michelson D.B., Holleman I., Hohti H., Salomonsen M. HDF5 information model and implementation for weather radar data. COST 717 working document WDF_02_200204_1, version 1.2. 2003.
- Urban B. BUFR format and graphical format for polar volume data submitted to and composites produced by the OPERA Odyssey. 2012, 14 p. http://www.eumetnet.eu/sites/default/files/ODIM-bufr-polar-and-compo-and-graphic_0.pdf
- Michelson D.B., Lewandowski R., Szewczykowski M., Beekhuis H. EUMETNET OPERA weather radar information model for implementation with the HDF5 file format, version 2.1. Opera working document WD_2008_03, EUMETNET OPERA, 2011, 36 p. https://www.eol.ucar.edu/system/files/OPERA_2008_03_WP2.1b_ODIM_H5_v2.1.pdf
- Mustafa Demirci. Fuzzy functions and their applications. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 2000, vol. 252, pp.495–517, doi:10.1006/jmaa.2000.7185.
Low cloudiness is one of the most important factors of a flight meteorological situation determining safety of aircrafts landing.
The majority of publications devoted to the problem of stratiform cloudiness focus main attention on either studying of quantitative parameters of heat and moisture advection or typification of synoptic processes leading to its emergence and evolution. Therefore the main goal of the article consists in study of the spatiotemporal structure of dynamic features of the clouds-containing layer.
Using the example of weather conditions causing air traffic disruption at Odessa International Airport, the article studies spatiotemporal structure of dynamic features of the lower layer of the atmosphere at the time of low cloudiness formation and its degradation. Complex usage of GFS model data with high resolution and data of actual observations with regard to cloudiness ceiling ensured obtaining conclusions about the nature of circulation conditions during its evolution.
In particular, usage of time series helped to determine that vorticity and its features do not significantly affect low cloudiness formation unlike divergence and its vertical gradient. The conclusions obtained are confirmed via drafting of spatial vertical cross sections through the regions with minimum cloudiness ceiling.
Quantitative and qualitative assessments of dynamic structure of the lower layer of the atmosphere at the time of low cloudiness formation may be used when developing criteria and parameters for its forecast.
- Komissiya ekspertov podtverdila vysshuyu kategoriyu aerodroma «Borispol» i povysila uroven’ pozharnoy zashchity [The commission of experts confirmed the highest Boryspil airport category and increased the level of fire protection]. Mezhdunarodnyy aeroport «Borispol’» – Boryspil International Airport. URL: http://kbp.aero/ru/about/press-center/news/2014/666/ (ac-cessed 22 May).
- Aerologicheskaya diagramma [Aerological diagram]. Organizatsiya «StopDesign» – StopDesign organization. URL: http://meteo.paraplan.net/forecast/aerological_diagram.html (accessed 5 May).
- Atmospheric Soundings. University of Wyoming, College of Engineering and Applied Science, the Department of Atmospheric Science. URL: http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html (accessed 13 April).
- Abramovich K. G., Khrgian A. Kh. Organizatsiya issledovaniya usloviy vozniknoveniya oblachnosti nizhnego yarusa [The organization of the study of the onset conditions of the low-level cloudiness]. Trudy CIP – Proceedings of the Central Forecasting Institute, 1959, issue 80, pp. 3-9.
- Abramovich K. G. Ob usloviyakh obrazovaniya oblachnosti nizhnego yarusa [On the formation conditions of the low-level cloudiness]. Trudy CIP – Proceedings of the Central Forecasting Institute, 1959, issue 80, pp. 10-41.
- Gogoleva E. I. Izmeneniya defitsita tochki rosy pered poyavleniem i rasseivaniem oblachnosti vysotoy nizhe 600 m [Dew-point deficit changes before the onset and dissipation of the clouds with bases below 600 m]. Trudy CIP – Proceedings of the Central Forecasting Institute, 1959, issue 80, pp. 42-57.
- Kolokolova G. V. Opredelenie urovnya perenosa pri prognoze nizkoy oblachnosti [Determination of the transfer level in forecasting low cloudiness]. Trudy CIP – Proceedings of the Central Forecasting Institute, 1959, issue 80, pp. 58-63.
- Arrago L. R., Shvets M. E. K teorii obrazovaniya i evolyutsii nekonvektivnoy oblachnosti [Towards the theory of the formation and evolution of the non-convective clouds]. Trudy CIP – Proceedings of the Central Forecasting Institute, 1961, issue 121, pp. 53-58.
- Abramovich K. G. Nekotorye osobennosti raspredeleniya meteorologicheskikh elementov v nizhney chasti troposfery v oblachnye i bezoblachnye dni [Some features of the distribution of meteorological elements at the bottom of the troposphere during the cloud and cloudless days]. Trudy CIP – Proceedings of the Central Forecasting Institute, 1964, issue 136, pp. 3-11.
- Rubinshteyn M. V. Prognoz oblachnosti vysotoy 100 m i menee na 3-6 chas. s pomoshchyu diagramm rasseyaniya [Prediction of the cloudiness with a base at 100 m and less with the lead time of 3-6 hours by using scattering diagrams]. Trudy CIP – Proceedings of the Central Forecasting Institute, 1966, issue 157, pp. 5-11.
- Abramovich K. G., Glazunov V. G. Usloviya formirovaniya i evolyutsii nizhnikh oblakov na Ukraine v noyabre–dekabre 1962 g. [Conditions of the formation and evolution of the lower clouds in Ukraine in November – December 1962]. Trudy CIP – Proceedings of the Central Forecasting Institute, 1966, issue 157, pp. 25-44.
- Abramovich K. G. Nekotorye osobennosti perenosa v nizhnich sloyach atmosfery i ich rol v formirovanii stratifikatsii pri nizhney oblachnosti [Some features of the transfer in the lower atmosphere and their role in the formation of stratification in the presence of the lower cloudiness]. Trudy GMC – Proceedings of the Hydrometeorological Centre, 1967, issue 7, pp. 50-62.
- Clouds and Precipitation. Handbook of Weather Forecasting. United Kingdom Meteorological Office. Bracknell: Meteorological Office, 1975. Chapter 19. 161 p.
- Abramovich K. G. K kharakteristike atmosfernykh processov v dni s nizhney oblachnostyu [On the characterization of the atmospheric processes during the days with the lower clouds]. Trudy CIP – Proceedings of the Central Forecasting Institute, 1964, issue 136, pp. 12-26.
- Shakina N. P., Skriptunova E. N. Spektry povtoryaemosti osadkov na territorii evropeyskoy chasti byvshego SSSR v zavisimosti ot intensivnosti frontalnykh zon i konvektivnoy neustoychivosti setochnogo masshtaba [Spectra of the precipitation repeatability in the European part of the former Soviet Union, depending on the intensity of the frontal zones and grid scale convective instability]. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya – Meteorology and hydrology, 2006, issue 4, pp. 5-18.
- Wells L. A. Marine Layer Stratus Study. Pure and Ap-plied Geophysics, 2007, vol. 164, pp. 1397-1421.
- Koračin D., Dorman C. E. Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Divergence and Clouds along California in June 1996. Monthly Weather Review, 2001, vol. 129, pp. 2040-2056.
The aim of this study consists in assessment of impact of change of thermal regime, air moisture and weather phenomena on quantity and area of forest fires in the northern part of the Black Sea Region of Ukraine, their possible changes and consequences by the middle of XXI century with regard to modern climatic period for SRESA1B scenario and setting of some proportion of uncertainty of these changes.
The study of regional peculiarities of climate change was performed on the basis of daily meteorological observations over the period of 1961-2013 in the context of Kherson region. To assess impact of weather conditions on fire safety data on number of forest fires and their area in the region over 1996-2013 (about 4 000 cases of fire) were used. The study was carried out using regression and correlation analysis. Calculation projections of climate characteristics’ change resulting in forest fires was performed for the period of 2021-2050 with relation to modern climatic period (1981-2010) using the data of regional climate model REMO with resolution of 25 km initiated by ECHAM5 global model calculation.
It was found that number and area of forest fires in the northern part of the Black Sea Region of Ukraine is largely dependent on thermal regime, moisture and wind regime. Influence of temperature appears to be decisive and affects area of fires rather than their number. For example, increase of annual / summer average air temperature by 1°C can lead to increase of average area of fire almost by 110% and 90% respectively and increase of number of days with atmospheric drought and heat (maximum temperature above 30°C) by 10 days can cause increase of average area of fires by 130% and 80%. At the same time air temperature in September and October has a significant impact on number of fires: increase of monthly average air temperature by 1°C can lead to increase of number of fires by 20%.
Climate change analysis conducted in Kherson oblast resulted in finding that over the recent decades the region faced a significant change of thermal regime, moisture and wind regime, recurrence of weather phenomena affecting number and area of forest fires. These changes led to increase of fire risks in the region. Evaluation of possible changes of these characteristics by the middle of the XXI century showed that the under SRES A1B scenario the region might expect further increase of temperature throughout the year, growth of number of hot days and duration of sultry period. Since these processes are accompanied by increase of duration of dry period these changes will significantly affect fire risk increase – number of forest fires and their area by the middle of the XXI century in Kherson region may significantly grow.
Obtained results can be used to develop plans for adaptation to climate change.
- Pachauri R. K., Rayzinger A., etc. (Eds). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Switzelend: IPCC, 2007. 104 p. (In Russian)
- Chaba Matiasha (Ed.). Lesa i izmenenie klimata v Vostochnoy Evrope i Tsentral’noy Azii [Forest and Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia]. Rim, 2010. 209 p.
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Harvest of agricultural crops depends on availability of biological properties of plants, aggregate of technological measures for plants growth, peculiarities of soil covering and weather and climate conditions, social importance of products and their economic value.
Crop capacity of spring barley depends on many factors, among which there are the most important ones such as light, heat, moisture, mineral nutrition etc. Climate changes that became particularly noticeable during the recent decade cause change of agro-climatic conditions of spring barley growing, which, in their turn, cause change of rates of crops growth, change of parameters of formation of its productivity which significantly determines the level of crop capacity.
Photosynthetic activity of plants depends mainly on supply of solar radiation as the primary source for all biological and physical processes taking place in plants. According to data of studies the role of solar radiation in plants’ life appears to be multilateral one and is determined not only by patterns of change of elements of plants’ photosynthetic activity depending on each other, but also by the influence of changes of agro-climatic and farming practices, plants’ density, standards and periods of irrigation and nutrition.
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- Polevoy A.N. Prikladnoe modelirovanie i prognozirovanie produktivnosti posevov [Application modeling and forecasting of crop production]. Leningrad: Gidrometeo-izdat, 1988. 318 p.
- Adamenko T.I., Kul’bida M.I., Prokopenko A.L. (Eds). Ahroklimatychnyy dovidnyk po teritorii Ukrainy [An agroclimatic reference book about territories of Ukraine]. Kamyanec-Podilsk, 2011. 107 p.
- Stepanenko S.M., Pol’ovyy A.M. (Eds). Otsinka vplyvu klimatychnykh zmin na galuzi ekonomiky Ukrai’ny.[ An estimation of influence of climatic changes is on industry of economy of Ukraine]. Odessa: Ekolohiya, 2011. 694 p.
- Jacob D., B.JJ.M. Van den Hurk, U. Andre, G. Elgered, C. Fortelius, L.P. Graham, S.D. Jackson, U. Karstens, Chr. Kopken, R. Lindau, R. Podzun, B. Rockel, F. Rubel, B.H. Sass, R.N.B. Smith, X. Yang: A comprehensive model intercomparison study investigating the water budget during the BALTEX-PIDCAP period. Meteor. Atm., 2001, no. 77, pp. 61-73.
Indices of the radiation-and-temperature regime in the Steppe zone of Ukraine in the period of 1986 through 2005, as compared to the expected changes in these indices, calculated in accordance with the two climate change scenarios, RCP4,5 and RCP8,5, for the period of up to 2050, are under consideration in the paper. RCP4,5 is a scenario of stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, while RCP8.5 is the one of very high greenhouse gas emissions. To characterize the radiation and thermal resources in the Steppe zone of Ukraine in the period of 1986 through 2005 (the basic period), and the change in the period of 2021 through 2050 calculations of average long-term values for the first group of environmental factors were performed: the duration of day-time, the total daily solar radiation, the intensity of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), the accumulated PAR, the radiation balance of the vegetation cover, and the temperature regime. The following principal agroclimatic characteristics of the temperature regime were considered: dates of stable rise of the air temperature above 0, 5, 10, 15 °C in spring and autumn, duration of the period with air temperatures above 0, 5, 10, 15 °C, the accumulated positive air temperatures for the period with air temperatures above 0, 5, 10, 15 °C, the average air temperature in January and July, and the amplitude.
It is pointed out that in the period of up to 2050, according to the calculations in both scenarios, increased indices of the radiation-and-temperature regime will be observed. The values of the radiation regime parameters will predominantly increase in late summer and early autumn. As a result of the inflow of increased accumulated solar radiation, the accumulated temperatures in the period with air temperatures above 5 °C will also rise. The expected increase in the accumulated temperatures will nevertheless not exceed 200 °C. A rise in the total temperature will contribute to better heat supply for the crops.
- Stepanenko S. M., Pol’ovyy A. M. (Eds). Otsinka vplyvu klimatychnykh zmin na haluzi ekonomiky Ukrayiny [Assessment of impact of climate change on industries in Ukraine]. Odessa: «Ekolohiya» Publ., 2011. 694 p.
- Stepanenko S. M., Pol’ovyy A. M. (Eds). Klimatychni zminy ta yikh vplyv na sfery ekonomiky Ukrayiny [Climate change and its impact on sectors of the economy in Ukraine]. Odessa: «TES» Publ., 2015. 520 p.
- Budyko M. I. Izrayel Yu. A. (Eds). Antropogennye izmeneniya klimata [Anthropogenic climate change]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1987. 405 p.
- Voloshchuk V. M. Basic regularities of current global warming on the territory of Ukraine and its environmental impacts. Ukrayina ta hlobal’ni protsesy: heohrafichnyy vymir [Ukraine and global processes: the geographical dimension]. Kyyiv – Lutsk, 1998, vol. 3, pp. 202 – 208.
- Kotlyakov V. M. (Ed.). Global’nye i regional’nye izme-neniya klimata i ikh prirodnye I sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie posledstviya [Global and regional climate change and its environmental and socioeconomic impacts]. Moscow: «Geos», 2000. 262 p.
- Hrebenyuk N., Korzh T., Yatsenko А. Vodne hospodarstvo Ukrayiny – Water industry of Ukraine, 2002, no. 5-6, pp. 56-62.
- Tooming Kh. G. Solnechnaya radiatsiya I formirovanie urozhaya [Solar radiation and the crop formation]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1977. 200 p.
- Budagovskiy A. I., Rоss Yu. K. Fundamentals of quantitative theory of photosynthetic activity of crops. V rnige: Fotosinteziruyushchie sistemy vysokoy produktivnosti [In book: Photosynthetic high productivity system]. Moscow: Nauka, 1966. pp. 51 – 58.
- Polevoy A. N. Prikladnoye modelirovaniye i prognozirovanie produktivnosti posevov [Application modeling and forecasting of crop productivity]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1988. 318 p.
- Pol’ovyy A. M. Sil’s’kohospodars’ka meteorolohiya [Agricultural Meteorology]. Odessa: «TES» Publ., 2012. 628 p.
The article describes the main indicators of a grapes crop quality — a sugar content in the juice of grapes and a titratable acidity, which give a special taste to the main production of technical kinds of grapes – dry wines. The methods and tools of the laboratory analysis of these indicators, as well as the methodology of a field experience are described .
The results of laboratory and field experiments, conducted in 2015 in the areas of an ampelography and clonal selection department of NSC of “Institute for Winegrowing and Winemaking named after V. E. Tairov” are represented.
The quality of grapes crop was determined for three grades – Odessa Muscat, Sukholimansky white and Odessa black (respectively medium, later than average and late ripening). Analysis of grape quality indicators was carried out in the dynamics during ripening (from the beginning of ripening to a technical maturity) in four replications for 40 plants on three tiers of the bush – the upper, middle and lower.
It was executed the calculations of gluco-acidimetric indicator (GAP) value for grades Odessa Muscat, Sukholimansky white and Odessa black. The following conclusions were obtained. The greatest rate of change of grapes quality indicators of different ripening technical kinds is observed for the grape with the lowest grade ripening period – Odessa Muscat.
The resulting calculations indicate sufficient indicators value to obtain good quality wine materials for making high quality wines.
- Davitaya F. F. Issledovanie klimatov vinograda v SSSR i obosnovanie ikh prakticheskogo primeneniya [Research of climates grapes in the USSR and the rationale for their practical application]. Мoscow – Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1952. 304 p.
- Тurmanidze Т. I. Кlimat i urozhay vinograda [Climate and grape harvest]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1981. 223 p.
- Fursa D. I. Pogoda, oroshenie i produktivnost’ vinograda [Weather, irrigation and productivity of grapes]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1986. 200 p.
- Stoev K. (Ed.). Fiziologiya vinograda i osnovy ego vozdelyvaniya [Physiology of grape and the basis of its cultivation]. Sofia:Bulgaria Academy of Science Publ. 1981. 332 p.
- Vlasov V. V. (Ed.). Vinogrdarstvo Severnogo Prichernomor’ya [Viticulture of The Northern Black Sea Coast]. Artsyz, 2009. 207 p.
- Vlasov V. V., Shevchenko I. V., Lyashenko G. V. Environmental passport of the grapes zoned in Ukraine. VinoGrad, 2008, no. 7, pp. 22-25. (In Ukrainian)
- Аmpelograficheskiy atlas sortov i form vinograda selektsii Natsionalnogo nauchnogo tsentra «IViV im. V. E. Tairova» [Ampelographic atlas of grape varieties and forms selection of The National Scientific Center “Institute of viticulture and wine after V. E. Tairov “]. Кiev: Аgrarna nauka, 2014. 136 p.
- Lyashenko G. V., Soborova O. M., Opekha O. M., Мelnikova E. M. Research of links between grape production quality and agroclimatic conditions . Vynogradarstvo i vynorobstvo: mіzhv. tеm. nauk. zb [Viticulture and winemaking, interdepartmental thematic scientific collection]. Оdessa: Optimum, 2014, issue 51, pp. 190-194. (In Ukrainian)
Introduction. The existing agroclimatic handbooks in Kazakhstan are outdated both in informational and technological senses. Therefore necessity of agroclimatic resources reassessment arose.
Purpose. Research of heat supply of vegetation period within the Northern grain-seeding territory of Kazakhstan.
Methods. Data of meteorological stations for period of 1981-2014 were used. Methods of statistic and climatologic processing of data were applied. The agroclimatic maps were drafted using ArcGIS 10.1 software.
Results. The article describes a thermal regime, duration and heat supply of vegetation period within the territory of 4 northern oblasts of Kazakhstan. The territory of Northern Kazakhstan under study has continental climate. Average annual air temperature at the area under study increases from the North to the South from 1.8 °C to 5.3°C. Average July air temperature at the area changes from 18.5 °C to 23.6 °C and average January air temperature – from minus 12.8 °C to minus 17.4 °C. Duration of vegetation period for early spring crops constitutes 172-193 days, for late spring crops – 136-162 days and for warmweather crops –89-124 days. Daily range of air temperature is 11.4-14.7 °C and that means rather high quality of grain. Sum of active temperatures exceeding 10 °C increases from the North to the South from 2100 °C to 3400 °C. Vegetation period is 90% provided by sum of active temperatures exceeding 10 °C within the range of 2000-2900 °C. Maps of heat supply and vegetation period duration were also drafted.
Conclusions. In the north of the territory under study thermal sources satisfy demands of soft and common sorts of wheat but are not enough for sunflower and maize, in the south they are enough for wheat, all sorts of sunflower and middle-late sorts of maize.
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The article describes the need for and the results of research of the process of carbon dioxide absorption by the largest artificial forest in Europe growing in the South of Ukraine, near the town of Oleshky (Tsuryupynsk), on the Lower Dnieper sands, due to increase of air temperature of the planet. Forecasts of scientists around the world force us to concentrate all possible efforts of the planet to preserve its atmospheric air temperature at the level not exceeding by 1.5 – 2 °C. This forestry aroused scientists’ interest because of its location in the Steppe zone of Ukraine and its origin. The article analyzes the current state of the forest hunting range. The species of trees prevailing in the forest stand and occupying the largest area in terms of age classes are specified. Areas of wood species under study depending on their age are also shown. Study of selected species, namely Crimean pine and Scotch pine, in terms of intensity of carbon dioxide absorption by needles from autumn 2015 to summer 2016 was also carried out. Seasonal performance in the form of graphs with analysis of the process under study was demonstrated. The lowest and the highest values of the process under study were noted down. Obtained results make it possible to analyze the processes of carbon dioxide absorption throughout the year by pinaceous species, namely by Crimean pine and Scotch pine.
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The results of calculations of possible state of water resources within The Danube River basin in the XXI century were shown. This estimation was based on the model “climate-runoff”, developed in Odessa State Environmental University. As the input to model data of climate scenario A1B (model REMO) were used. Average long-term annual flow values using meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) from the scenario for different climatic periods of XXI century were calculated. 32 points (grid nodes) which were uniformly distributed over the catchment area of The Danube River were studied. Projection of changes in water resources was given by comparing the calculation results in the past (before 1989) and in the future (1990-2030, 2031-2070, 2071-2100).
The major trends in climatic factors of the flow formation and water resources were established. It is shown that the climatic conditions in the XXI century on the The Danube River catchment is unfavorable for the formation of runoff. The positive component of the water balance (precipitation) remains unchanged and the negative component (evaporation) increases.
Isolines of norms of climatic annual flow within the whole basin were constructed. It is established that by 2030 a significant reduction of water resources will not occur; during the 2031-2070 diminution will be 17,9 %; during the 2071-2100 – 22,0 %.
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Studying of modern suspended load has practical value for the development of actions for regulation and stabilization of fluvial geomorphological processes. Work purpose: the creation of a regional method of calculation of suspended load in the absence of these observations. As a result of the use of the method of linear multiple regression with a step-by-step choice of optimum predictors the equations for calculation of average long-term modulus of suspended load of upper and middle part of the Dniester River are received. The main predictors are the average height of river basin, a share of groundwater inflow of the rivers, hydraulicity of a river, distance from the next reservoir located above on current, bias. The received equations have regional character and describe patterns of a spacing of suspended load on the areas allocated on the basis of cluster analysis: Carpathian (right-bank in-flows), Podolsk left-bank and Dniester left-bank, separated by Toltri. It is established that for Podoliya’s rivers (left-bank inflows) it is reasonable to carry out calculations of suspended load for water content phases. The accuracy of calculations at the application of the developed equations is higher in comparison with earlier offered techniques.
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Introduction. The water level of the liman, volume and area of surface reduced to record low values as a result of intensification of evaporation process in 2014. By the autumn of 2014 the liman was on the verge of extinction. Entry of seawater in the liman through the pipeline began in December of 2014 to prevent environmental degradation of the liman.
Purpose of this publication consists in analyzing the changes of hydrological and morphometric characteristics of Kuyalnik liman in 2014-2016 associated inflow of sea water.
Methods of study. Hydrological and morphometric characteristics of the liman were calculated on the basis of: field studies, bathygraphic curves, data of satellite images «Landsat».
Results. There was dynamics of change of water surface area, volume, level and salinity of liman’s water during the driest periods, at the time and after the inflow of seawater into the liman. The results of measurements of discharge of seawater and coastal watercourses.
The effect of evaporative processes taking into account temperature conditions (Odessa, Lyubashevka) on liman’s hydraulicity after the cessation of seawater supply was analyzed.
Conclusion. Inflow of seawater into the liman after the first entry of seawater allowed to temporarily stabilize water-salt regime of the liman, however, hydrological and morphometric characteristics of the liman in autumn of 2015 almost returned to the values of early autumn of 2014.
During subsequent inflows of seawater into the liman it is desirable to maintain the regime observed during the inflow of water in 2014-2016.
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Features of spatial distribution of the main parameters of wind waves, such as height, average period, average length, in the waters of the Tiligul Estuary were studied. Estimates of the bottom orbital velocities of wave motions determining transportation of bottom material were specified. Maximum heights of significant waves were obtained in the central, most deep-water part of the estuary, as well as in the southern part and near the windward shores. At the time of storm winds maximum heights of significant waves, according to the simulation results, constitute up to 0,83 m. On the basis of calculations of wind waves with application of the SWAN numerical model (Simulating WAves Nearshore) made using wind observations during 2012, regime functions of wind waves’ heights for different parts of the estuary were built. Statistical estimates of wind waves’ heights at typical points of the estuary waters were analyzed. Spatial fields of wind-wave flows in the estuary under the influence of steady winds of the southern and western directions calculated using the complex of numerical mathematical models of wind wave generation and models of wind-wave water circulation based on Reynolds equations and supplemented with components of the wave radiation stresses were specified.
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