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Year: 2016 / Issue: 17
References
- Title Page
- Galytska, E., V. Danylevsky and S. Snizhko Aerosols dynamics in the atmosphere over Eastern Europe by means of AERONET according to weather conditions during summer 2010
- Lyashenko, G.V. and L.A. Prykup Soil quality assessment based on reaction of soil solution and content of heavy metals in the southern part of Оdessa region
- Stepanenko, S.N., V.G. Voloshin and V. Yu. Kuryshina Calculation of wind speed in the 300-meter lower layer of the atmosphere based on the meteorological observations taking account of temperature stratification and surface roughness
- Khokhlov, V.M., H.O. Borovska, O.V. Umanska and M.S. Tenetko Changes of weather conditions in Ukraine under climate changes
- Ivus, Н.P., E.V. Agayar, L.M. Hurska and А.В. Semergei-Chumachenko Circulation conditions of strong and elemental wind over southwestern Ukraine
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- Pol'ovyy, A.M. and L.Y. Bozko Characteristic of radiation and thermal resources in Ukraine for the period up to 2050 under conditions of climate change
- Dronova, O.O. and J.O. Kuznetsova Effect of forestry of the southern Ukraine on the regulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
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Papers
Introduction. Aerosols in the Earth’s atmosphere are not only air pollutants but also a factor that affects the climate. The study of the dynamics of aerosol layer properties and aerosol particles properties, and revealing sources of the atmosphere pollution by aerosols is one of the urgent problems of modern environmental sciences. Monitoring of the air pollution caused by aerosols contributes to the determination of its effects on the climate and to the reduction of its negative impacts on the health of the population.
The purpose of this paper is to present the analysis of the dynamics of aerosols in the atmosphere over Eastern Europe. Thus, latest technologies and approaches are used: remote ground-based measurements of the optical properties of aerosol particles with the international sun photometers network AERONET; analysis of fires distribution during summer 2010 with the data application from satellite instrument MODIS; atmospheric dynamics research with the analysis of synoptic situation and modeling of transport of particles with the application of HYSPLIT model.
Results. The peculiarities of changes of aerosol optical depth at 500 nm spectral channel and Angstrom parameter 440-870 nm for 10 AERONET stations in Eastern Europe are discussed in the article. The authors provide complex analysis of aerosols distribution together with natural processes as forest fires and overview these processes considering weather conditions that were conducive for aerosols accumulation during that time. HYSPLIT back trajectories for mentioned stations in the altitude 0.5, 1.5, 3, 4 and 5 km are used as the improvement of results of synoptic analysis. Clear advantage of modelling of transport processes give the ability to receive detailed transport paths, which makes easier to distinguish the origin of aerosols.
Conclusion. Detailed research of aerosols with the application of up-to-date technologies makes the analysis of the optical properties of aerosols over large area quite efficient. The obvious effect of forest fires in European territory of Russia (UTR) on air quality of observational stations of Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Belarus and Estonia is detected and analysed. The further application of satellite measurements of optical properties of aerosols are attempted to be implemented to the further research.
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Introduction. Taking into account relationship of wind profile power-law exponent (m) from hydrostatic stability of the layer and surface roughness the calculation method of wind speed and direction in the lower 300-meter layer of the atmosphere based on the meteorological observations is proposed.
Problem. For many applied engineering problems, for example, for the design of high-rise construction and operation of wind power plants the wind and temperature profile data in the lower 300-meter layer are required. In the design, the main objective is to determine the peak wind loads and influences on objects.
Research methods. The calculations were carried out using the energy-balance model of the atmospheric surface layer, SLEB, based on standard meteorological information. The model is built on the basis of Monin-Obukhov similarity. To determine spatial variability of wind and temperature hydrostatic stability of the atmosphere and the dynamic properties of the underlying surface are taken into account.
Purpose. The aim of the study is to develop a method of calculation of changes in wind speed and direction in the lower 300-m layer of the atmosphere using the wind profile power law based on the standard surface meteorological information.
Results of the study. Relationships of non-dimensional wind profile power-law exponent from hydrostatic stability of the layer and surface roughness, obtained with the SLEB model, allowed building function graphics for different observation times and months. All calculated values agree with the known experimental and theoretical data very well.
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The paper analyzes spatiotemporal features the indices of hot, cold and precipitation that are related to weather conditions. The temperature in Ukraine tends to be higher, which is the main regional feature of global climate changes. The North Atlantic Oscillation had an influence on the precipitation in Ukraine – weather is rainier during its negative phases. Also, colder night and hotter days were more frequent during negative phases of the NAO. This fact can be explained by enhancing meridional flows in Ukraine. The wavelet analysis also revealed an impact of the NAO on temperature anomalies – positive phases determined increasing monthly minimum temperatures before the 1980s and decreasing ones after 1980s. Also, the wavelet analysis showed that the North Atlantic Oscillation influenced the precipitation in northern and southern parts of Ukraine in different ways.
- Khokhlov V., Romanova A. Joint principal component – wavelet analysis of atmospheric teleconnection: the North Atlantic Oscillation case. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2014, vol. 28, pp. 369–381.
- Polonskiy A.B., Basharin D.V., Voskresenkaya E.N., Worley S. North Atlantic Oscillation: description, mechanisms, and influence on the Eurasian climate. Physical Oceanography, 2004, vol. 14, pp. 96–113.
- Orlowsky B., Seneviratne S.I. Global changes in extremes events: regional and seasonal dimension. Climatic Change, 2012, vol. 110, pp. 669–696.
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Introduction. Nowadays the problem of storm winds appears to be a very relevant one in those spheres of human activities related to safety of human living, coastal infrastructure, seafaring, aviation etc. One of the conditions for successful forecasting of strong winds is familiarization with wind characteristics of the study area and with synoptic conditions causing them. The below listed results of research form continuation of previous works for search of a better synoptic classification reflecting completeness of macroscale baric processes causing formation of winds, including strong winds, over the South of Ukraine and also providing an opportunity to forecast winds in a more accurate manner.
The purpose of this publication consists in analysis of interaction of large-scale atmospheric circulation with formation of unfavourable weather conditions (strong and very strong winds) on the north-west coast of the Black Sea.
Methods and results. The impact of storm winds is significant for functioning of the national economic complex of the North-Western Black Sea region. In order to investigate this effect there were fifty seven cases of wind amplification up to criterion of strong ≥ 15 m·s-1 and very strong ≥ 25 m·s-1 selected within the Odessa region during the period from October to March in 2011 – 2014.
Indexes of Katz circulation for isobaric surface of 500 hPa were calculated as per the data of synoptic archive for the cases with wind speed of ≥ 15 m·s-1. A more detailed study of the structure of macrocirculation processes under strong winds, except for Katz indexes, is provided by means of classification and calendar of successive change of elementary circulation mechanisms (ECM) in the Northern hemisphere according to Dzerdzeyevskyi B.L. and typification of synoptic processes developed at the Department of Theoretical Meteorology and Meteorological Forecasts of OSENU. It was determined that strong and very strong winds often occur in southern and central regions, particularly at the stations located on the shores of seas and estuaries (Bilgorod-Dnistrovskyi, Ust-Dunaysk, Pivdennyi port). Meridional type of atmospheric circulation (77.2%) creates favourable conditions for wind amplification in the North-Western part of the Black Sea up to the criterion of strong and very strong one, zonal type of circulation constitutes 22.8% from the total number of cases. Meridional type of circulation is mainly represented by mixed and western forms – (24.6%) and (22.8%) respectively. Main types of synoptic situations (5, 6) of Katz typification that used to cause strong winds were revealed. Most frequently strong wind was observed while moving of cyclonic vortexes from the South (ECM type – 12a, 13z) and in the area of cyclones and anticyclones interaction.
Conclusion. It was found that wind speed amplification in the South of Ukraine up to the criteria of strong and very strong one mainly occurs due to the meridional type of atmospheric circulation which is dominated by mixed or western forms of circulation as per Katz typification, ECM type 12a and 13z according to Dzerdzeyevskyi B.L. and types 5 (subtype 5.2) and 6 (all subtypes depending on ECM) as per synoptic typification of OSENU.
Directions for further research should include the following. The conclusions have preliminary character and need confirmation on the basis of bigger scope of statistical data.
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In order to investigate horizontal distribution of hydro-meteorological characteristics, statistical analysis techniques, including multidimensional statistical analysis techniques (for example, factor, cluster analysis etc.) are usually applied. These techniques allow obtaining not only fields of particular characteristic by means of plotting appropriate isolines, but determining entire homogeneous areas with typical representative point which helps to compress information considerably and to reveal boundaries of distribution of certain characteristic within the entire spatial aggregation.
Schemes of zoning of fields of difference for monthly average temperatures “underlying surface-air” at 2 m height, of surface flows of latent heat, of zonal aspects of wind speed in the Northern Pacific obtained by means of the Universal Iterative Method of Data Clusterization are offered. The obtained clusterization schemes underwent both physical and statistical analyses having good scientific justification. It is shown that distribution of zonal aspect of wind speed has latitudinal direction, and distribution of flows of latent heat and temperature differences has mainly a focal nature. Analysis of variability of boundaries of homogeneous areas, average values of representative vectors, dispersions, mean-square deviations during future time intervals will allow identifying the specific features of climate variability through the example of the fields of hydrometeorological characteristics under study.
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Information about wind is widely used in many sectors of the economy. Wind also causes many dangerous and extreme weather events. Modern climate changes require a certain revision of weather patterns previously accepted for the area. This article provides information on the current space and time distribution of wind characteristics within the territory of Morocco. During the period of 2005-2014 some monthly average wind speed values and data on repeatability of wind directions by gradations were obtained on the basis of physical and statistical analysis of results of observations of wind speed and directions performed at 26 stations .
The authors defined the character of distribution of monthly averages of wind speed within the territory and its seasonal changes. Most of the territory is covered by mountains of Morocco which encourages development of local winds. At central and northern regions of Morocco predominance of weak winds due to complex orography of terrain is observed. In the central part of Morocco there is a region with the lowest values of wind speed. Formation of the wind regime at the coastal stations takes place in a developed breeze circulation. Wind speed and direction are significantly different at the nearby stations, such as Larache and Chefchaouen, Meknes and Fez.
Increase of wind during the warmer half of a year was revealed at all stations. Nature of annual variation of average wind speed at the stations allows us to split the stations into two groups. The first group includes the stations where the average wind speed increases in summer and decreases in winter. The second group includes the stations where the average wind speed increases in spring and decreases in autumn. In the southern part and along the coast, where the terrain is flat, an increase of wind speed is observed. On open plains of the southern part of Atlantic coast during all seasons wind has a direction corresponding to direction of trade winds of the Northern hemisphere. It should be noted that the main factor forming air circulation within the territory of Morocco is represented by trade winds the intensity of which nearly doubles from summer to winter.
Formation of wind directions at the stations takes place mainly under the influence of terrain of the area. At many stations predominant wind direction in January changes by 180º in comparison to the respective July values. Therefore, characteristics of the wind regime of Morocco in 2005-2014 consist in increase of wind speed in the coastal zone and decrease thereof in mountain areas together with presence of two types of annual variation of wind speed depending on physical and geographical conditions.
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The article considers parameters of heat and radiation regime within natural and climatic zones of Ukraine for the period of 1986 – 2005 in comparison with their expected changes calculated with regard to two scenarios of climate change: RCP4,5 and RCP8,5 for the period up to 2050. It is noted that during the period up to 2050 there will be an increase of parameters of radiation and thermal regime observed within all natural and climatic zones of Ukraine based on the calculations related to both scenarios. Increase of values of parameters of radiation regime will be observed mainly in the second half of summer and in early autumn. Due to increased amounts of solar radiation in some regions of Ukraine amount of temperatures during the period in question will increase as well with air temperatures exceeding 5 ° C. However expected increase of amount of temperatures will not exceed 200° C. Increase of amount of temperatures will promote better heat supply for agricultural crops.
- Stepanenko C.M., Polovyi A.M. (Eds). Otsinka vplyvu klimatychnykh zmin na haluzi ekonomiky Ukrayiny [Evaluation of the impact of climate change on industries of Ukraine]. Odessa: Ekologiya, 2011. 694 p.
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- Kotlyakov V.M. (Eds). Global’nye i regional’nye izmeneniya klimata i ikh prirodnye i sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie posledstviya [Global and regional climate change and its environmental and socio-economic impacts]. Moscow: «Geos», 2000. 262 p.
- Tooming Kh.G. Solnechnaya radiatsiya i formirovanieurozhaya [Solar radiation and the formation of the crop]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1977. 200 p.
- Budagovskiy A.I., Ross Yu.K. Osnovy kolichestvennoyteorii fotosinteticheskoy deyatel’nosti posevov. V kn. Fotosinteziruyushchie sistemy vysokoy produktivnosti [Fundamentals of quantitative theory of photosynthetic activity of crops. In: Photosynthetic high productivity system]. Moscow: Nauka, 1966, pp. 51 – 58.
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- Hrebeniuk N., Korzh T., Yatsenko A. Nove pro zminuhlobalnoho ta rehionalnoho klimatu v Ukraini na pochatku ХХІ st. [New to replace the global and regional climate in Ukraine at the beginning of ХХІ c.]. Vodne hospodarstvo Ukrainy – Water management of Ukraine, 2002, no. 5-6, pp. 56-62.
The article describes Tsyurupinsk Forest Hunting Range as the most powerful natural ecosystem having an effect on regulation of technology-related processes, namely on reduction of carbon dioxide stress on the environment. Needles of Scots pine and Crimean pine serve as the object of research. Needles were selected from pine trees occupying the largest areas of growth with regard to age class. The studies were conducted using the gasometrical method. The chosen method is based on measuring the rate of absorption of carbon dioxide by needles. Measurement of areas of examined portions of pine trees took place as well. The role of forests for dry steppe subzone of Ukraine was also determined. Data of photosynthesis process occurring in needles of coniferous woods prevailing with respect to areas of growth are demonstrated. The analysis for study of dynamics of carbon dioxide absorption in September – November of 2015 is presented. The most favourable periods of the process of absorption of CO2 are described with a certain decline noted. It has been proved that intensity of absorption of carbon dioxide by needles of Crimean pine is almost twice more than absorption of carbon dioxide by needles of Scots pine.
- Global’noe izmenenie klimata i energii [Global Climate Change and Energy]: Available at: http://www.planetseed.com/ru/ relatedarticle/otchiet-mkik (accessed 20 December 2015).
- Moroziuk O.V. Hlobal’nі zmіny klіmatu ta rehіonal’nyi vplyv lіsіv na balans vuhletsyu [Global clіmate change and regіonal forests influence on the carbon balance]. Trudy «Naukovyi vіsnyk L’vіv. nats. Lіsotekhn. un-tu» [Proc. of Scientific Bulletin of the National forest – technical university], 2009, no. 19.15, pp. 88-92.
- Pavliuk°V.V. Rіst sіyantsіv khvoynykh porіd za rіznoi osvіtlenostі ta kontsentratsіi SO2 [Growth of seedlings of softwoods at different light and CO2]. Trudy «Lіsove hospodarstvo, lіsova, paperova і derevoobrobna promyslovіst’» [Proc. of the Forestry, timber, paper and wood industry], 2006, no. 30, pp. 214-220.
- Lakyda°P.I., Vasylyshyn°R.D. Nadzemna fіtomasa ta deponovanyi vuhlets derev sosny kryms’koi u Krymu [Overground phytomass and deposited carbon of Crimean pine trees in Crimea]: Available at: nubip.edu.ua (accessed 10 November 2015).
- Deineha°E.A., Savateeva°O.A. Ekspress – kontrol’ antropogennoy transformatsyi gorodskikh ekosistem metodami bioindikatsyi khvoynykh porod [Express – control of anthropogenic transformation of urban ecosystems by softwood bioindication methods]: Available at: http://www.rae.ru/fs/pdf/2012/5-2/29946.pdf (accessed 10 November 2015).
- Kovylina°O.P., Zarubina°Y.A., Kovylina°A.N. Otsenka zhyznennogo sostoyaniya sosny obyknovennoy v zone tekhnogennogo zagryazneniya [Evaluation of the life condition of Scots pine in the area of man-made pollution]: Available at: http://forest-culture.narod.ru/HBZ/Stat_08_3-4/kovilina_zarub.pdf (accessed 10 November 2015).
- Herman Shugart, Roger Sedjo, Brent Sohngen. Forests & Global climate change. Proc. University of Virginia, The Ohio State University, 2013, pp. °88-92.
- Voron°V.P., Bolohov°O.Y., Romanenko°O.I. Vplyv ahrotekhnohennoho zabrudnennya na prostorovu strukturu sosnovykh derevostanіv [Agrotechnogenic effect of pollution on the spatial structure of pine stands]. Trudy «Lіsіvnitstvo і ahromelіoratsіya» [Proc. “The Forestry and agromelioration”]. Kharkhiv : Ukrainian Scientific – Research Institute of Forestry and Agromelioration, 2006, no. 121, pp. 151-156.
- Prentice K.C., Fung I.Y. Bioclimatic simulations test the sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to perturbed climate sand Forests & Global climate change Potentia l Impactson U.S. Forest Resources Prepared for the Pew Centeron Global Climate Change by Herman Shugart. University of Virginia Roger Sedjo resources for the Brentsohngen the Ohio State University, 1990, pp. 48-51. Available at: http://forestecology.cfans.umn.edu
- Kyzeev°A.N. Izmeneniya morfologicheskikh i fiziologobiokhimicheskikh pokazateley khvoi sosny obyknovennoy v usloviyakh aerotekhnogennogo zagryazneniya [Morphological Changes and physiological and biochemical indices of pine needles indicators in terms of environmental contamination]: Available at: http://www.moluch.ru/archive (accessed 10 December 2015).
- Yalynskaya°E.E. Ekofiziologiya dykhaniya sosny i SO2 – gazoobmen v sosnovom tsenoze [Breath ecophysiology of pine and CO2 – the gas exchange in the pine cenosis]: Available at: http://earthpapers.net/preview/13783/d?#?page=1 (accessed 10 December 2015).
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- Yurovchyk°V.H. Konstruktivno-heohrafіchnі zasady optimіzatsіi lіsіv і lіsovoho hospodarstva Volynskoi oblastі. Dis. kand. eogr. nauk [Structurally geographical bases of optimization of forests and forestry of Volyn region. Dis. Cand. Geogr. Sci.]. Lvіv, 2007. 220°p.
- Proekt organіzatsii і rozvytku DP «Tsyurupins’ke lіsomislyvs’ke hospodarstvo» Khersons’koho oblasnoho upravlіnnya lіsovoho і myslyvs’koho hospodarstva [Project organization and development of the SE “Tsyurupinsk Forest Hunting Range” Kherson Regional Forestry and Hunting]. Іrpіn: UkrGFPr, 2011, 192°p.
The problem of climate change and global warming both in whole and in particular has become one of the most serious and urgent directions of scientific and technical activity at the present stage. The future food security of Ukraine depends on the effectiveness of adaptation of agriculture to new conditions dictated by the global anthropogenic warming. In order to evaluate possible impact of climate change in Ukraine on agroclimatic indicators the scenario A1B – “moderate” was used providing a balance between all energy sources. Researches of sunflower harvest formation are carried out using a dynamic model of agricultural crops productivity. For a comparative analysis of scenary meteorological variables with previous data the period from 1986 to 2005 is taken from agroclimatic directory of Ukraine. It serves as a base when performing calculations. According to calculations of A1B climate change scenario, periods of sowing and subsequent phases of development will occur earlier than at present, which will lead to reduction of the whole vegetation period at most parts of the area under study. As a result of comparative analysis of temperature and precipitation regime it was found that, subject to implementation of the climate change scenario under study, expected weather conditions will be more favourable for cultivation of sunflower in the Western and Central forest-steppe, as well as at the Right-Bank Ukraine and in the Donetsk sub-zone of Northern steppe of Ukraine.
- Adamenko T.I., Kul’bida M.I., Prokopenko A.L. (Eds). Ahroklimatychnyy dovidnyk po terytorii’ Ukrai’ny [An agroclimatic reference book on the Ukraine territory]. Kam’yanets’-Podil’s’k, 2011. 107 p.
- Hvalenskiy U.A., Sirotenko O.D., Polevoy A.N. Dinamicheskoe modelirovanie v agrometeorologii [The dynamic modeling in agrometeorology]. Leningrad, 1982. 145 p.
- Logvinov V.F. Izmeneniya klimata Belarusi i ikh posledstviya [Climate changes in Belarus and their consequences]. Minsk: Tonpik, 2003.
- Stepanenko S.M., Pol’ovyy A.M. (Eds). Klimatychni zminy ta ikh vplyv na sfery ekonomiky Ukrai’ny [Climate changes and their influence on sphere of the Ukraine economy]. Odesa: “TES”, 2015. 520 p.
- Krakovs’ka S.V., Palamarchuk L.V., Shedemenko I.P., Dukel G.O., Gnatuk N.V.] Verifіkatsіya danykh svіtovoho klіmatychnoho tsentru (CRU) ta rehіonalnoi modelі klіmatu (REMO) shchodo pryzemnoi temperatury povitrya za kontrol’nyy perіod 1961-1990 pp [Data verification of global climate center (CRU) and regional climate model (REMO) on surface air temperature for the controlling period 1961-1990]. Nauk. pratsi UkrNDGMI – Proc. UkrSRHMI, 2008, no. 257, pр. 42-60.
- Loginov V.F. Prichiny i sledstviya klimaticheskikh izmeneniy [The causes and consequences of climate changes]. Minsk: Navuka i tehnika, 1992. 320 p.
- Pol’ovyy A.M. Modeluvannya hidrometeorolohichnoho rezhimu ta produktyvnosti ahroekosystem [Modeling of hydrometeorological regime and agroecosystems productivity]. Kyiv: KNT, 2007. 344 p.
- Syrotenko O.D. Budushchee sel’skogo khozyaystva Rossii v svyazi s ozhidaemymi izmeneniyami klimata [The future of agriculture in Russia due to expected climate changes]. Problemy ekologicheskogo monitoringa i modelirovaniya ekosistem [Environmental monitoring problems and ecosystem modeling], 2000, vol. XVII, pp. 258-274.
The signals of global warming are now being observed throughout the world. Data of hydrometeorological centres show a significant increase of temperature in many regions accompanied by intense frequency of dry periods. Some substantial and direct effects of climate change may be already noticed at present time. Over the next several decades they will be observed in agriculture. Increase of temperature and reduction of precipitation volumes will probably lead to decrease the level of yield. These changes can significantly affect the global food security. Ukraine is known for its fertile soil and agricultural products, so it has a huge agricultural potential, contributing, in fact, to the global food security. However, the observed weather changes, increase of average temperature and uneven distribution of rainfalls can result in sharp transformation of most of agricultural and climatic zones of Ukraine. According to international processes there is an urgent need for improvement of adaptation to climate change of some branches of national economy of Ukraine, including of agriculture.
Expanding the range of types of millet used in agricultural production is an economically feasible process that should be implemented in view of significant climate changes resulting in global warming which is widely discussed in scientific literature. Rapid introduction in crop shifts of the millet that is able to withstand recurring periodic droughts, especially in the southern regions, is one of the ways allowing to overcome the consequences of such extreme conditions.
Conditions of the southern regions are favourable for millet crop. Millet is one of the most drought-resistant and heat-resistant crops that can sustain heat injuries and seizures and this is very important for arid areas during dry years, when other crops significantly reduce the level of yield.
We studied changes of agro-climatic resources and agro-climatic conditions for formation of millet productivity for various periods of time. The analysis of climate change trend was performed through comparing of data as per climatic scenarios A2 and A1B and of average long-term characteristics of climatic and agro-climatic indicators. The comparative description of millet productivity under the conditions of climate change as per average long-term data (1986-2005) and as per scenarios A2 and A1B of climate change (2011-2030 and 2031-2050) was also performed.
- Adamenko T.I., Kul’bida M.I., Prokopenko A.L. (Eds). Ahroklimatychnyy dovidnyk po terytorii’ Ukrai’ny [An agroclimatic reference book for territories of Ukraine]. Kamyanets-Podilsk, 2011. 107 p.
- Zinchenko O.I., Salatenko V.N, Bilonozhko M.A. Roslynnytstvo [Crop]. Kiev: Agricultural education, 2001. 291 p.
- Ivani Zhuzhanna. Pidvyshchennya stiykosti do zminy klimatu sil’s’kohospodars’koho sektoru Pivdnya Ukrayiny [Increased resistance to climate change agricultural sector of the South Ukraine]. Sentendre, Hungary, October, 2015, pр. 5-7.
- Korzun O.S., Anokhina T.A., Kadyrov R.M., Kravtsov S.V. Vozdelyvanie prosovidnykh kyl’tur v Respublike Belarus’ [The cultivation of millet crops in the Republic of Belarus]. Grodno: GGAU, 2011, p. 6.
- Pol’ovyy A.M. Otsinka vplyvu zmin klimatu na zminy ahroklimatychnykh resursiv Luhans’koho rehionu, umovy rostu ta produktyvnist’ sil’s’kohospodars’kykh kul’tur i pryrodnoyi roslynnosti. Rekomendatsiyi shchodo adaptatsiyi do tsykh zmin [Assessing the impact of climate change on changes in agroclimatic resources of Lugansk region, the conditions of growth and productivity of crops and natural vegetation. Recommendation to adapt to these changes]. Odessa, 2012. 7 p.
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- Stepanenko S.M., Pol’ovyy A.M., Demianiuk O.S., Dronova O.O. Zminy rezhymu opadiv v Ukrayini [Changes in the precipitation regime in Ukraine]. Kiev, 2014. 10 p.
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The processes of seed germination and shoots formation of crops caused by environmental factors are investigated. Also existing approaches to the modelling of this period, modelling of processes taking place in a seed during its germination, shoots formation are investigated, the structure of the developed model of the period of sowing – rise of shoots is described, as well as the results of numerical experiments.
The specified model is aimed at overcoming the disadvantages and improving previous models of the period of sowing – rise of shoots. Development of this model is based on the achieved level of modelling of shoots formation with introduction of certain modifications. The model takes into account both physical processes taking place in a seed prior to germination of shoots and physiological and biochemical processes such as hydrolysis of endosperm reserves, respiration, distribution of hydrolysis products within axial organs and their growth.
The model is implemented on a PC using Microsoft Office Excel. Many numerical experiments were carried out in order to investigate sensitivity of the model to changes of environmental conditions during germination of seeds. It was found that main agrometeorological factors affecting the time of emergence and completeness of germination are temperature, humidity and soil density. Influence of soil moisture becomes the most apparent at the stage of absorption and accumulation of moisture by a seed starting from sowing to beginning of growth process. Provided that there are optimum moisture and temperature, density of soil appears to be limiting factor affecting shoots formation: if soil density increases duration of shoots emergence increases as well.
Developed dynamic model allows determining the date of shoots emergence, their field germination rate, distribution of particular number of plants of with different depth of seeds covering and a number of plants per particular unit of area.
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Data of climate change scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) were used. They were proposed for consideration in the Fifth Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Average long-term annual flow values using meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) from the scenarios for the period 2011-2050 were calculated. 84 points (grid nodes) uniformly distributed on the territory of Ukraine were studied. The calculations were made based on the model “climate-runoff”, developed in Odessa State Environmental University. Projection of changes in water resources was given by comparing the calculation results in the past (before 1989) and in the future (2011-2050).
The major trends in water resources of Ukraine were established.
It is shown that by the middle of the XXI century reducing of water resources is expected on the plain territory of Ukraine (70% in the southeast). In the geographical zone of the Ukrainian Carpathians, especially in the Tisa river basin, its stability or growth is possible.
Analysis of changes in the ratio of moisture and heat resources showed that climate aridity will be intensify and the insufficient moisture zone and the semiarid zone will be widen.
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The article contains the results of water quality estimation by hydrochemical parameters at the gauge station of the Ingulets River, town of Snigurivka, during the observation period of 2001–2014 based on modern calculation methods. The analysis of anthropogenic factors affecting change of quality of surface water of the Ingulets River was used. It was found that by hydrochemical parameters waters are mostly “contaminated”, “very contaminated”, or “catastrophically contaminated”.
River flow appears to be the main source of water supply for the population and the economy. There is an acute deficit of water in the South of Ukraine. Because of use of rivers for economic activity of Mykolaiv region estimation of the ecological state of the Ingulets River should be carried out.
Starting from 2010 a tendency of quality improvement via reducing of petroleum products concentration was discovered. Dynamics of changes pollutants’ concentration shows a decrease of petroleum products’ concentration but over the last years the chemical composition of water in the river has not significantly improved, ability of the river to cleanse and restore itself does not return. The ecological state of the river is characterized as an ecological regress. There is a necessity of further research using modern methods of complex estimation of surface waters sources’ quality.
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In order to solve the problems of diagnosis and forecast of spatial-temporal variability of hydrological characteristics of the Kuyalnik Liman (water level, salinity and temperature) which cause chemical and biological processes occurring therein, and, therefore, affect the properties of brine and therapeutic mud, a non-stationary 3D numerical hydrothermodynamic model Delft3D-FLOW was applied. The model can be applied for research of the features and forecasting of spatial-temporal variability of hydrological characteristics of the Kuyalnik Liman under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors forming its hydrological regime. Such opportunity is also indicated by the results of adaptation of the model to the Kuyalnik Liman conditions and its validation that are specified in this work. The important role of accounting of small streams flowing into the liman and accurate setting of intensity of storm rainfall during modelling is also shown. It is found that at the time of storm winds with longitudinal directions in relation to the liman’s water surface, the difference of watermarks in its northern and southern parts may reach 0.35-0.4 m.
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