Possibility of determining models of structures of different hydrometeors and models of their reflectivity with regard to radio-waves was presented. To determine the scaling factor of size distribution of incident particles it is necessary to use horizontal reflective capability, all reflected features of signal can be used to define an average particle size of precipitation and dispersion coefficient. However, the most susceptible characteristics, namely, differential reflective capability and linear depolarization ratio should be chosen. Hence one has an appropriate algorithm processing of a reflected signal. Models of radio-waves reflectivity considering hydrometeors’ microstructure at different stages of their existence were developed to ensure a forecast of meteorological situation changes. The results demonstrate that the use of polarization Doppler meteorological radar stations significantly improve accuracy of assessment of danger caused by meteorological formations.
Temperature is one of the main meteorological parameters. It determines the weather and climatic conditions, and impacts on human activities. Weather and climate conditions (precisely air temperature) are the most important factors which affect natural and recreational resources and also stipulate recreational and tourist activities. The article discusses the possible impact of air temperature changes from 2021 to 2050 on recreational and tourist activities in Ukrainian regions. We have analyzed the data gathered by 85 observation stations which are located in various Ukrainian regions. The analysis was based on scenario due to average level of greenhouse gases emissions (medium climate change pattern) for 30 years (2021-2050). The coastal zone in North-western part of the Black Sea has one of the high level of recreational-tourism potential. The forecast in this region makes rather small increasing of the temperature in summer time. So, it has not significant influence to the present forms of recreation and tourism activities. The research indicates that changes in average annual, average summer and winter air temperatures according to the scenario will not significantly affect the possibility of summer recreational and tourism activities. Also climate changes will not affect sustainable development of recreation and the level of thermal impact on recreants (tourists) within Ukrainian regions. Following this climate change scenario we don’t anticipate significant deterioration of weather conditions for winter recreation and tourism activities, especially for the Ukrainian Carpathians.
The paper describes the features of spatiotemporal distribution of drought at long-time periods in Transcarpathian region under the projected temperature and precipitation regime in the period of 2020-2050. Analysis of temperature and moisture conditions was produced using the CORDEX climate modeling data for climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. It is shown that an increase of mean annual air temperature at the stations will occur mainly due to increasing of winter temperatures in both scenarios. The average annual precipitation sum will increase insignificantly, but will be observed the opposite trends in winter and summer precipitation. Evaluation of spatial and temporal distribution of drought using drought index SPEI showed that expected a general increase of the regional aridity during the studied period. Weak droughts will be prevail in both scenarios with amount about 7-11 cases per 31 years. At the same time, under the relatively mild scenario RCP4.5 the droughts are predicted more intensive, and under both scenarios the total number of moderate and severe droughts increases on time scales more than one year. The time course of dry and wet periods almost the opposite between scenarios, but in both scenarios is expected an increase of duration and intensity of drought episodes after mid of 2030s.
There is an increasing demand for automated high-quality very-short-range forecasts and nowcasts of precipitation on small scales and at high update frequencies. Current prediction systems use different methods of determining precipitation such as area tracking, individual cell tracking and numerical models. All approaches are based on radar measurements. World-leading manufactories of meteorological radars and attendant visualization software are introduced in the paper. Advantages of the numerical modelling against inertial schemes designed on statistical characteristics of convective processes are outlined. On this way, radar data assimilation systems as a necessary part of numerical models are intensively developed. In response to it, the use of digital formats for processing of radar measurements in numerical algorithms became important. In the focus of this work is the developing of a unified code for digital processing of radar signals at the preprocessing, filtration, assimilation and numerical integration steps. The proposed code also includes thinning, screening or superobbing radar data before exploring them for the assimilation procedures. The informational model manages radar data flows in the metadata and binary array forms. The model constitutes an official second-generation European standard exchange format for weather radar datasets from different manufactories. Results of radar measurement processing are presented for both, the single radar and radar overlying network.
Low cloudiness is one of the most important factors of a flight meteorological situation determining safety of aircrafts landing.
The majority of publications devoted to the problem of stratiform cloudiness focus main attention on either studying of quantitative parameters of heat and moisture advection or typification of synoptic processes leading to its emergence and evolution. Therefore the main goal of the article consists in study of the spatiotemporal structure of dynamic features of the clouds-containing layer.
Using the example of weather conditions causing air traffic disruption at Odessa International Airport, the article studies spatiotemporal structure of dynamic features of the lower layer of the atmosphere at the time of low cloudiness formation and its degradation. Complex usage of GFS model data with high resolution and data of actual observations with regard to cloudiness ceiling ensured obtaining conclusions about the nature of circulation conditions during its evolution.
In particular, usage of time series helped to determine that vorticity and its features do not significantly affect low cloudiness formation unlike divergence and its vertical gradient. The conclusions obtained are confirmed via drafting of spatial vertical cross sections through the regions with minimum cloudiness ceiling.
Quantitative and qualitative assessments of dynamic structure of the lower layer of the atmosphere at the time of low cloudiness formation may be used when developing criteria and parameters for its forecast.
The aim of this study consists in assessment of impact of change of thermal regime, air moisture and weather phenomena on quantity and area of forest fires in the northern part of the Black Sea Region of Ukraine, their possible changes and consequences by the middle of XXI century with regard to modern climatic period for SRESA1B scenario and setting of some proportion of uncertainty of these changes.
The study of regional peculiarities of climate change was performed on the basis of daily meteorological observations over the period of 1961-2013 in the context of Kherson region. To assess impact of weather conditions on fire safety data on number of forest fires and their area in the region over 1996-2013 (about 4 000 cases of fire) were used. The study was carried out using regression and correlation analysis. Calculation projections of climate characteristics’ change resulting in forest fires was performed for the period of 2021-2050 with relation to modern climatic period (1981-2010) using the data of regional climate model REMO with resolution of 25 km initiated by ECHAM5 global model calculation.
It was found that number and area of forest fires in the northern part of the Black Sea Region of Ukraine is largely dependent on thermal regime, moisture and wind regime. Influence of temperature appears to be decisive and affects area of fires rather than their number. For example, increase of annual / summer average air temperature by 1°C can lead to increase of average area of fire almost by 110% and 90% respectively and increase of number of days with atmospheric drought and heat (maximum temperature above 30°C) by 10 days can cause increase of average area of fires by 130% and 80%. At the same time air temperature in September and October has a significant impact on number of fires: increase of monthly average air temperature by 1°C can lead to increase of number of fires by 20%.
Climate change analysis conducted in Kherson oblast resulted in finding that over the recent decades the region faced a significant change of thermal regime, moisture and wind regime, recurrence of weather phenomena affecting number and area of forest fires. These changes led to increase of fire risks in the region. Evaluation of possible changes of these characteristics by the middle of the XXI century showed that the under SRES A1B scenario the region might expect further increase of temperature throughout the year, growth of number of hot days and duration of sultry period. Since these processes are accompanied by increase of duration of dry period these changes will significantly affect fire risk increase – number of forest fires and their area by the middle of the XXI century in Kherson region may significantly grow.
Obtained results can be used to develop plans for adaptation to climate change.
Harvest of agricultural crops depends on availability of biological properties of plants, aggregate of technological measures for plants growth, peculiarities of soil covering and weather and climate conditions, social importance of products and their economic value.
Crop capacity of spring barley depends on many factors, among which there are the most important ones such as light, heat, moisture, mineral nutrition etc. Climate changes that became particularly noticeable during the recent decade cause change of agro-climatic conditions of spring barley growing, which, in their turn, cause change of rates of crops growth, change of parameters of formation of its productivity which significantly determines the level of crop capacity.
Photosynthetic activity of plants depends mainly on supply of solar radiation as the primary source for all biological and physical processes taking place in plants. According to data of studies the role of solar radiation in plants’ life appears to be multilateral one and is determined not only by patterns of change of elements of plants’ photosynthetic activity depending on each other, but also by the influence of changes of agro-climatic and farming practices, plants’ density, standards and periods of irrigation and nutrition.
Indices of the radiation-and-temperature regime in the Steppe zone of Ukraine in the period of 1986 through 2005, as compared to the expected changes in these indices, calculated in accordance with the two climate change scenarios, RCP4,5 and RCP8,5, for the period of up to 2050, are under consideration in the paper. RCP4,5 is a scenario of stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, while RCP8.5 is the one of very high greenhouse gas emissions. To characterize the radiation and thermal resources in the Steppe zone of Ukraine in the period of 1986 through 2005 (the basic period), and the change in the period of 2021 through 2050 calculations of average long-term values for the first group of environmental factors were performed: the duration of day-time, the total daily solar radiation, the intensity of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), the accumulated PAR, the radiation balance of the vegetation cover, and the temperature regime. The following principal agroclimatic characteristics of the temperature regime were considered: dates of stable rise of the air temperature above 0, 5, 10, 15 °C in spring and autumn, duration of the period with air temperatures above 0, 5, 10, 15 °C, the accumulated positive air temperatures for the period with air temperatures above 0, 5, 10, 15 °C, the average air temperature in January and July, and the amplitude.
It is pointed out that in the period of up to 2050, according to the calculations in both scenarios, increased indices of the radiation-and-temperature regime will be observed. The values of the radiation regime parameters will predominantly increase in late summer and early autumn. As a result of the inflow of increased accumulated solar radiation, the accumulated temperatures in the period with air temperatures above 5 °C will also rise. The expected increase in the accumulated temperatures will nevertheless not exceed 200 °C. A rise in the total temperature will contribute to better heat supply for the crops.
The article describes the main indicators of a grapes crop quality — a sugar content in the juice of grapes and a titratable acidity, which give a special taste to the main production of technical kinds of grapes – dry wines. The methods and tools of the laboratory analysis of these indicators, as well as the methodology of a field experience are described .
The results of laboratory and field experiments, conducted in 2015 in the areas of an ampelography and clonal selection department of NSC of “Institute for Winegrowing and Winemaking named after V. E. Tairov” are represented.
The quality of grapes crop was determined for three grades – Odessa Muscat, Sukholimansky white and Odessa black (respectively medium, later than average and late ripening). Analysis of grape quality indicators was carried out in the dynamics during ripening (from the beginning of ripening to a technical maturity) in four replications for 40 plants on three tiers of the bush – the upper, middle and lower.
It was executed the calculations of gluco-acidimetric indicator (GAP) value for grades Odessa Muscat, Sukholimansky white and Odessa black. The following conclusions were obtained. The greatest rate of change of grapes quality indicators of different ripening technical kinds is observed for the grape with the lowest grade ripening period – Odessa Muscat.
The resulting calculations indicate sufficient indicators value to obtain good quality wine materials for making high quality wines.
Introduction. The existing agroclimatic handbooks in Kazakhstan are outdated both in informational and technological senses. Therefore necessity of agroclimatic resources reassessment arose.
Purpose. Research of heat supply of vegetation period within the Northern grain-seeding territory of Kazakhstan.
Methods. Data of meteorological stations for period of 1981-2014 were used. Methods of statistic and climatologic processing of data were applied. The agroclimatic maps were drafted using ArcGIS 10.1 software.
Results. The article describes a thermal regime, duration and heat supply of vegetation period within the territory of 4 northern oblasts of Kazakhstan. The territory of Northern Kazakhstan under study has continental climate. Average annual air temperature at the area under study increases from the North to the South from 1.8 °C to 5.3°C. Average July air temperature at the area changes from 18.5 °C to 23.6 °C and average January air temperature – from minus 12.8 °C to minus 17.4 °C. Duration of vegetation period for early spring crops constitutes 172-193 days, for late spring crops – 136-162 days and for warmweather crops –89-124 days. Daily range of air temperature is 11.4-14.7 °C and that means rather high quality of grain. Sum of active temperatures exceeding 10 °C increases from the North to the South from 2100 °C to 3400 °C. Vegetation period is 90% provided by sum of active temperatures exceeding 10 °C within the range of 2000-2900 °C. Maps of heat supply and vegetation period duration were also drafted.
Conclusions. In the north of the territory under study thermal sources satisfy demands of soft and common sorts of wheat but are not enough for sunflower and maize, in the south they are enough for wheat, all sorts of sunflower and middle-late sorts of maize.
The article describes the need for and the results of research of the process of carbon dioxide absorption by the largest artificial forest in Europe growing in the South of Ukraine, near the town of Oleshky (Tsuryupynsk), on the Lower Dnieper sands, due to increase of air temperature of the planet. Forecasts of scientists around the world force us to concentrate all possible efforts of the planet to preserve its atmospheric air temperature at the level not exceeding by 1.5 – 2 °C. This forestry aroused scientists’ interest because of its location in the Steppe zone of Ukraine and its origin. The article analyzes the current state of the forest hunting range. The species of trees prevailing in the forest stand and occupying the largest area in terms of age classes are specified. Areas of wood species under study depending on their age are also shown. Study of selected species, namely Crimean pine and Scotch pine, in terms of intensity of carbon dioxide absorption by needles from autumn 2015 to summer 2016 was also carried out. Seasonal performance in the form of graphs with analysis of the process under study was demonstrated. The lowest and the highest values of the process under study were noted down. Obtained results make it possible to analyze the processes of carbon dioxide absorption throughout the year by pinaceous species, namely by Crimean pine and Scotch pine.
The results of calculations of possible state of water resources within The Danube River basin in the XXI century were shown. This estimation was based on the model “climate-runoff”, developed in Odessa State Environmental University. As the input to model data of climate scenario A1B (model REMO) were used. Average long-term annual flow values using meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) from the scenario for different climatic periods of XXI century were calculated. 32 points (grid nodes) which were uniformly distributed over the catchment area of The Danube River were studied. Projection of changes in water resources was given by comparing the calculation results in the past (before 1989) and in the future (1990-2030, 2031-2070, 2071-2100).
The major trends in climatic factors of the flow formation and water resources were established. It is shown that the climatic conditions in the XXI century on the The Danube River catchment is unfavorable for the formation of runoff. The positive component of the water balance (precipitation) remains unchanged and the negative component (evaporation) increases.
Isolines of norms of climatic annual flow within the whole basin were constructed. It is established that by 2030 a significant reduction of water resources will not occur; during the 2031-2070 diminution will be 17,9 %; during the 2071-2100 – 22,0 %.
Studying of modern suspended load has practical value for the development of actions for regulation and stabilization of fluvial geomorphological processes. Work purpose: the creation of a regional method of calculation of suspended load in the absence of these observations. As a result of the use of the method of linear multiple regression with a step-by-step choice of optimum predictors the equations for calculation of average long-term modulus of suspended load of upper and middle part of the Dniester River are received. The main predictors are the average height of river basin, a share of groundwater inflow of the rivers, hydraulicity of a river, distance from the next reservoir located above on current, bias. The received equations have regional character and describe patterns of a spacing of suspended load on the areas allocated on the basis of cluster analysis: Carpathian (right-bank in-flows), Podolsk left-bank and Dniester left-bank, separated by Toltri. It is established that for Podoliya’s rivers (left-bank inflows) it is reasonable to carry out calculations of suspended load for water content phases. The accuracy of calculations at the application of the developed equations is higher in comparison with earlier offered techniques.
Introduction. The water level of the liman, volume and area of surface reduced to record low values as a result of intensification of evaporation process in 2014. By the autumn of 2014 the liman was on the verge of extinction. Entry of seawater in the liman through the pipeline began in December of 2014 to prevent environmental degradation of the liman.
Purpose of this publication consists in analyzing the changes of hydrological and morphometric characteristics of Kuyalnik liman in 2014-2016 associated inflow of sea water.
Methods of study. Hydrological and morphometric characteristics of the liman were calculated on the basis of: field studies, bathygraphic curves, data of satellite images «Landsat».
Results. There was dynamics of change of water surface area, volume, level and salinity of liman’s water during the driest periods, at the time and after the inflow of seawater into the liman. The results of measurements of discharge of seawater and coastal watercourses.
The effect of evaporative processes taking into account temperature conditions (Odessa, Lyubashevka) on liman’s hydraulicity after the cessation of seawater supply was analyzed.
Conclusion. Inflow of seawater into the liman after the first entry of seawater allowed to temporarily stabilize water-salt regime of the liman, however, hydrological and morphometric characteristics of the liman in autumn of 2015 almost returned to the values of early autumn of 2014.
During subsequent inflows of seawater into the liman it is desirable to maintain the regime observed during the inflow of water in 2014-2016.
Features of spatial distribution of the main parameters of wind waves, such as height, average period, average length, in the waters of the Tiligul Estuary were studied. Estimates of the bottom orbital velocities of wave motions determining transportation of bottom material were specified. Maximum heights of significant waves were obtained in the central, most deep-water part of the estuary, as well as in the southern part and near the windward shores. At the time of storm winds maximum heights of significant waves, according to the simulation results, constitute up to 0,83 m. On the basis of calculations of wind waves with application of the SWAN numerical model (Simulating WAves Nearshore) made using wind observations during 2012, regime functions of wind waves’ heights for different parts of the estuary were built. Statistical estimates of wind waves’ heights at typical points of the estuary waters were analyzed. Spatial fields of wind-wave flows in the estuary under the influence of steady winds of the southern and western directions calculated using the complex of numerical mathematical models of wind wave generation and models of wind-wave water circulation based on Reynolds equations and supplemented with components of the wave radiation stresses were specified.
Introduction. Aerosols in the Earth’s atmosphere are not only air pollutants but also a factor that affects the climate. The study of the dynamics of aerosol layer properties and aerosol particles properties, and revealing sources of the atmosphere pollution by aerosols is one of the urgent problems of modern environmental sciences. Monitoring of the air pollution caused by aerosols contributes to the determination of its effects on the climate and to the reduction of its negative impacts on the health of the population.
The purpose of this paper is to present the analysis of the dynamics of aerosols in the atmosphere over Eastern Europe. Thus, latest technologies and approaches are used: remote ground-based measurements of the optical properties of aerosol particles with the international sun photometers network AERONET; analysis of fires distribution during summer 2010 with the data application from satellite instrument MODIS; atmospheric dynamics research with the analysis of synoptic situation and modeling of transport of particles with the application of HYSPLIT model.
Results. The peculiarities of changes of aerosol optical depth at 500 nm spectral channel and Angstrom parameter 440-870 nm for 10 AERONET stations in Eastern Europe are discussed in the article. The authors provide complex analysis of aerosols distribution together with natural processes as forest fires and overview these processes considering weather conditions that were conducive for aerosols accumulation during that time. HYSPLIT back trajectories for mentioned stations in the altitude 0.5, 1.5, 3, 4 and 5 km are used as the improvement of results of synoptic analysis. Clear advantage of modelling of transport processes give the ability to receive detailed transport paths, which makes easier to distinguish the origin of aerosols.
Conclusion. Detailed research of aerosols with the application of up-to-date technologies makes the analysis of the optical properties of aerosols over large area quite efficient. The obvious effect of forest fires in European territory of Russia (UTR) on air quality of observational stations of Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Belarus and Estonia is detected and analysed. The further application of satellite measurements of optical properties of aerosols are attempted to be implemented to the further research.
Introduction. Taking into account relationship of wind profile power-law exponent (m) from hydrostatic stability of the layer and surface roughness the calculation method of wind speed and direction in the lower 300-meter layer of the atmosphere based on the meteorological observations is proposed.
Problem. For many applied engineering problems, for example, for the design of high-rise construction and operation of wind power plants the wind and temperature profile data in the lower 300-meter layer are required. In the design, the main objective is to determine the peak wind loads and influences on objects.
Research methods. The calculations were carried out using the energy-balance model of the atmospheric surface layer, SLEB, based on standard meteorological information. The model is built on the basis of Monin-Obukhov similarity. To determine spatial variability of wind and temperature hydrostatic stability of the atmosphere and the dynamic properties of the underlying surface are taken into account.
Purpose. The aim of the study is to develop a method of calculation of changes in wind speed and direction in the lower 300-m layer of the atmosphere using the wind profile power law based on the standard surface meteorological information.
Results of the study. Relationships of non-dimensional wind profile power-law exponent from hydrostatic stability of the layer and surface roughness, obtained with the SLEB model, allowed building function graphics for different observation times and months. All calculated values agree with the known experimental and theoretical data very well.
The paper analyzes spatiotemporal features the indices of hot, cold and precipitation that are related to weather conditions. The temperature in Ukraine tends to be higher, which is the main regional feature of global climate changes. The North Atlantic Oscillation had an influence on the precipitation in Ukraine – weather is rainier during its negative phases. Also, colder night and hotter days were more frequent during negative phases of the NAO. This fact can be explained by enhancing meridional flows in Ukraine. The wavelet analysis also revealed an impact of the NAO on temperature anomalies – positive phases determined increasing monthly minimum temperatures before the 1980s and decreasing ones after 1980s. Also, the wavelet analysis showed that the North Atlantic Oscillation influenced the precipitation in northern and southern parts of Ukraine in different ways.
Introduction. Nowadays the problem of storm winds appears to be a very relevant one in those spheres of human activities related to safety of human living, coastal infrastructure, seafaring, aviation etc. One of the conditions for successful forecasting of strong winds is familiarization with wind characteristics of the study area and with synoptic conditions causing them. The below listed results of research form continuation of previous works for search of a better synoptic classification reflecting completeness of macroscale baric processes causing formation of winds, including strong winds, over the South of Ukraine and also providing an opportunity to forecast winds in a more accurate manner.
The purpose of this publication consists in analysis of interaction of large-scale atmospheric circulation with formation of unfavourable weather conditions (strong and very strong winds) on the north-west coast of the Black Sea.
Methods and results. The impact of storm winds is significant for functioning of the national economic complex of the North-Western Black Sea region. In order to investigate this effect there were fifty seven cases of wind amplification up to criterion of strong ≥ 15 m·s-1 and very strong ≥ 25 m·s-1 selected within the Odessa region during the period from October to March in 2011 – 2014.
Indexes of Katz circulation for isobaric surface of 500 hPa were calculated as per the data of synoptic archive for the cases with wind speed of ≥ 15 m·s-1. A more detailed study of the structure of macrocirculation processes under strong winds, except for Katz indexes, is provided by means of classification and calendar of successive change of elementary circulation mechanisms (ECM) in the Northern hemisphere according to Dzerdzeyevskyi B.L. and typification of synoptic processes developed at the Department of Theoretical Meteorology and Meteorological Forecasts of OSENU. It was determined that strong and very strong winds often occur in southern and central regions, particularly at the stations located on the shores of seas and estuaries (Bilgorod-Dnistrovskyi, Ust-Dunaysk, Pivdennyi port). Meridional type of atmospheric circulation (77.2%) creates favourable conditions for wind amplification in the North-Western part of the Black Sea up to the criterion of strong and very strong one, zonal type of circulation constitutes 22.8% from the total number of cases. Meridional type of circulation is mainly represented by mixed and western forms – (24.6%) and (22.8%) respectively. Main types of synoptic situations (5, 6) of Katz typification that used to cause strong winds were revealed. Most frequently strong wind was observed while moving of cyclonic vortexes from the South (ECM type – 12a, 13z) and in the area of cyclones and anticyclones interaction.
Conclusion. It was found that wind speed amplification in the South of Ukraine up to the criteria of strong and very strong one mainly occurs due to the meridional type of atmospheric circulation which is dominated by mixed or western forms of circulation as per Katz typification, ECM type 12a and 13z according to Dzerdzeyevskyi B.L. and types 5 (subtype 5.2) and 6 (all subtypes depending on ECM) as per synoptic typification of OSENU.
Directions for further research should include the following. The conclusions have preliminary character and need confirmation on the basis of bigger scope of statistical data.
In order to investigate horizontal distribution of hydro-meteorological characteristics, statistical analysis techniques, including multidimensional statistical analysis techniques (for example, factor, cluster analysis etc.) are usually applied. These techniques allow obtaining not only fields of particular characteristic by means of plotting appropriate isolines, but determining entire homogeneous areas with typical representative point which helps to compress information considerably and to reveal boundaries of distribution of certain characteristic within the entire spatial aggregation.
Schemes of zoning of fields of difference for monthly average temperatures “underlying surface-air” at 2 m height, of surface flows of latent heat, of zonal aspects of wind speed in the Northern Pacific obtained by means of the Universal Iterative Method of Data Clusterization are offered. The obtained clusterization schemes underwent both physical and statistical analyses having good scientific justification. It is shown that distribution of zonal aspect of wind speed has latitudinal direction, and distribution of flows of latent heat and temperature differences has mainly a focal nature. Analysis of variability of boundaries of homogeneous areas, average values of representative vectors, dispersions, mean-square deviations during future time intervals will allow identifying the specific features of climate variability through the example of the fields of hydrometeorological characteristics under study.
Information about wind is widely used in many sectors of the economy. Wind also causes many dangerous and extreme weather events. Modern climate changes require a certain revision of weather patterns previously accepted for the area. This article provides information on the current space and time distribution of wind characteristics within the territory of Morocco. During the period of 2005-2014 some monthly average wind speed values and data on repeatability of wind directions by gradations were obtained on the basis of physical and statistical analysis of results of observations of wind speed and directions performed at 26 stations .
The authors defined the character of distribution of monthly averages of wind speed within the territory and its seasonal changes. Most of the territory is covered by mountains of Morocco which encourages development of local winds. At central and northern regions of Morocco predominance of weak winds due to complex orography of terrain is observed. In the central part of Morocco there is a region with the lowest values of wind speed. Formation of the wind regime at the coastal stations takes place in a developed breeze circulation. Wind speed and direction are significantly different at the nearby stations, such as Larache and Chefchaouen, Meknes and Fez.
Increase of wind during the warmer half of a year was revealed at all stations. Nature of annual variation of average wind speed at the stations allows us to split the stations into two groups. The first group includes the stations where the average wind speed increases in summer and decreases in winter. The second group includes the stations where the average wind speed increases in spring and decreases in autumn. In the southern part and along the coast, where the terrain is flat, an increase of wind speed is observed. On open plains of the southern part of Atlantic coast during all seasons wind has a direction corresponding to direction of trade winds of the Northern hemisphere. It should be noted that the main factor forming air circulation within the territory of Morocco is represented by trade winds the intensity of which nearly doubles from summer to winter.
Formation of wind directions at the stations takes place mainly under the influence of terrain of the area. At many stations predominant wind direction in January changes by 180º in comparison to the respective July values. Therefore, characteristics of the wind regime of Morocco in 2005-2014 consist in increase of wind speed in the coastal zone and decrease thereof in mountain areas together with presence of two types of annual variation of wind speed depending on physical and geographical conditions.
The article considers parameters of heat and radiation regime within natural and climatic zones of Ukraine for the period of 1986 – 2005 in comparison with their expected changes calculated with regard to two scenarios of climate change: RCP4,5 and RCP8,5 for the period up to 2050. It is noted that during the period up to 2050 there will be an increase of parameters of radiation and thermal regime observed within all natural and climatic zones of Ukraine based on the calculations related to both scenarios. Increase of values of parameters of radiation regime will be observed mainly in the second half of summer and in early autumn. Due to increased amounts of solar radiation in some regions of Ukraine amount of temperatures during the period in question will increase as well with air temperatures exceeding 5 ° C. However expected increase of amount of temperatures will not exceed 200° C. Increase of amount of temperatures will promote better heat supply for agricultural crops.
The article describes Tsyurupinsk Forest Hunting Range as the most powerful natural ecosystem having an effect on regulation of technology-related processes, namely on reduction of carbon dioxide stress on the environment. Needles of Scots pine and Crimean pine serve as the object of research. Needles were selected from pine trees occupying the largest areas of growth with regard to age class. The studies were conducted using the gasometrical method. The chosen method is based on measuring the rate of absorption of carbon dioxide by needles. Measurement of areas of examined portions of pine trees took place as well. The role of forests for dry steppe subzone of Ukraine was also determined. Data of photosynthesis process occurring in needles of coniferous woods prevailing with respect to areas of growth are demonstrated. The analysis for study of dynamics of carbon dioxide absorption in September – November of 2015 is presented. The most favourable periods of the process of absorption of CO2 are described with a certain decline noted. It has been proved that intensity of absorption of carbon dioxide by needles of Crimean pine is almost twice more than absorption of carbon dioxide by needles of Scots pine.
The problem of climate change and global warming both in whole and in particular has become one of the most serious and urgent directions of scientific and technical activity at the present stage. The future food security of Ukraine depends on the effectiveness of adaptation of agriculture to new conditions dictated by the global anthropogenic warming. In order to evaluate possible impact of climate change in Ukraine on agroclimatic indicators the scenario A1B – “moderate” was used providing a balance between all energy sources. Researches of sunflower harvest formation are carried out using a dynamic model of agricultural crops productivity. For a comparative analysis of scenary meteorological variables with previous data the period from 1986 to 2005 is taken from agroclimatic directory of Ukraine. It serves as a base when performing calculations. According to calculations of A1B climate change scenario, periods of sowing and subsequent phases of development will occur earlier than at present, which will lead to reduction of the whole vegetation period at most parts of the area under study. As a result of comparative analysis of temperature and precipitation regime it was found that, subject to implementation of the climate change scenario under study, expected weather conditions will be more favourable for cultivation of sunflower in the Western and Central forest-steppe, as well as at the Right-Bank Ukraine and in the Donetsk sub-zone of Northern steppe of Ukraine.
The signals of global warming are now being observed throughout the world. Data of hydrometeorological centres show a significant increase of temperature in many regions accompanied by intense frequency of dry periods. Some substantial and direct effects of climate change may be already noticed at present time. Over the next several decades they will be observed in agriculture. Increase of temperature and reduction of precipitation volumes will probably lead to decrease the level of yield. These changes can significantly affect the global food security. Ukraine is known for its fertile soil and agricultural products, so it has a huge agricultural potential, contributing, in fact, to the global food security. However, the observed weather changes, increase of average temperature and uneven distribution of rainfalls can result in sharp transformation of most of agricultural and climatic zones of Ukraine. According to international processes there is an urgent need for improvement of adaptation to climate change of some branches of national economy of Ukraine, including of agriculture.
Expanding the range of types of millet used in agricultural production is an economically feasible process that should be implemented in view of significant climate changes resulting in global warming which is widely discussed in scientific literature. Rapid introduction in crop shifts of the millet that is able to withstand recurring periodic droughts, especially in the southern regions, is one of the ways allowing to overcome the consequences of such extreme conditions.
Conditions of the southern regions are favourable for millet crop. Millet is one of the most drought-resistant and heat-resistant crops that can sustain heat injuries and seizures and this is very important for arid areas during dry years, when other crops significantly reduce the level of yield.
We studied changes of agro-climatic resources and agro-climatic conditions for formation of millet productivity for various periods of time. The analysis of climate change trend was performed through comparing of data as per climatic scenarios A2 and A1B and of average long-term characteristics of climatic and agro-climatic indicators. The comparative description of millet productivity under the conditions of climate change as per average long-term data (1986-2005) and as per scenarios A2 and A1B of climate change (2011-2030 and 2031-2050) was also performed.
The processes of seed germination and shoots formation of crops caused by environmental factors are investigated. Also existing approaches to the modelling of this period, modelling of processes taking place in a seed during its germination, shoots formation are investigated, the structure of the developed model of the period of sowing – rise of shoots is described, as well as the results of numerical experiments.
The specified model is aimed at overcoming the disadvantages and improving previous models of the period of sowing – rise of shoots. Development of this model is based on the achieved level of modelling of shoots formation with introduction of certain modifications. The model takes into account both physical processes taking place in a seed prior to germination of shoots and physiological and biochemical processes such as hydrolysis of endosperm reserves, respiration, distribution of hydrolysis products within axial organs and their growth.
The model is implemented on a PC using Microsoft Office Excel. Many numerical experiments were carried out in order to investigate sensitivity of the model to changes of environmental conditions during germination of seeds. It was found that main agrometeorological factors affecting the time of emergence and completeness of germination are temperature, humidity and soil density. Influence of soil moisture becomes the most apparent at the stage of absorption and accumulation of moisture by a seed starting from sowing to beginning of growth process. Provided that there are optimum moisture and temperature, density of soil appears to be limiting factor affecting shoots formation: if soil density increases duration of shoots emergence increases as well.
Developed dynamic model allows determining the date of shoots emergence, their field germination rate, distribution of particular number of plants of with different depth of seeds covering and a number of plants per particular unit of area.
Data of climate change scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) were used. They were proposed for consideration in the Fifth Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Average long-term annual flow values using meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) from the scenarios for the period 2011-2050 were calculated. 84 points (grid nodes) uniformly distributed on the territory of Ukraine were studied. The calculations were made based on the model “climate-runoff”, developed in Odessa State Environmental University. Projection of changes in water resources was given by comparing the calculation results in the past (before 1989) and in the future (2011-2050).
The major trends in water resources of Ukraine were established.
It is shown that by the middle of the XXI century reducing of water resources is expected on the plain territory of Ukraine (70% in the southeast). In the geographical zone of the Ukrainian Carpathians, especially in the Tisa river basin, its stability or growth is possible.
Analysis of changes in the ratio of moisture and heat resources showed that climate aridity will be intensify and the insufficient moisture zone and the semiarid zone will be widen.
The article contains the results of water quality estimation by hydrochemical parameters at the gauge station of the Ingulets River, town of Snigurivka, during the observation period of 2001–2014 based on modern calculation methods. The analysis of anthropogenic factors affecting change of quality of surface water of the Ingulets River was used. It was found that by hydrochemical parameters waters are mostly “contaminated”, “very contaminated”, or “catastrophically contaminated”.
River flow appears to be the main source of water supply for the population and the economy. There is an acute deficit of water in the South of Ukraine. Because of use of rivers for economic activity of Mykolaiv region estimation of the ecological state of the Ingulets River should be carried out.
Starting from 2010 a tendency of quality improvement via reducing of petroleum products concentration was discovered. Dynamics of changes pollutants’ concentration shows a decrease of petroleum products’ concentration but over the last years the chemical composition of water in the river has not significantly improved, ability of the river to cleanse and restore itself does not return. The ecological state of the river is characterized as an ecological regress. There is a necessity of further research using modern methods of complex estimation of surface waters sources’ quality.
In order to solve the problems of diagnosis and forecast of spatial-temporal variability of hydrological characteristics of the Kuyalnik Liman (water level, salinity and temperature) which cause chemical and biological processes occurring therein, and, therefore, affect the properties of brine and therapeutic mud, a non-stationary 3D numerical hydrothermodynamic model Delft3D-FLOW was applied. The model can be applied for research of the features and forecasting of spatial-temporal variability of hydrological characteristics of the Kuyalnik Liman under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors forming its hydrological regime. Such opportunity is also indicated by the results of adaptation of the model to the Kuyalnik Liman conditions and its validation that are specified in this work. The important role of accounting of small streams flowing into the liman and accurate setting of intensity of storm rainfall during modelling is also shown. It is found that at the time of storm winds with longitudinal directions in relation to the liman’s water surface, the difference of watermarks in its northern and southern parts may reach 0.35-0.4 m.