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References
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- Semenova I.G. Using of vegetation indices for drought monitoring in Ukraine
- Semenova I.G. Meteorological and synoptic conditions of drought in Ukraine in the autumn 2011
- Khokhlov V.N., Borovska G.A., Khomenko G.V., Sharaieva T.V. Regional features of droughts distribution in Ukraine
- E. Nazhmudinova, N. Yermolenko Some aspects of formation of intensive droughts conditions in summer of 2010 over the eastern Europe
- Хохлов В.Н. Пространственно-временное распределение засух на территории Украины в условиях изменения климата
Papers
The paper describes the features of spatiotemporal distribution of drought at long-time periods in Transcarpathian region under the projected temperature and precipitation regime in the period of 2020-2050. Analysis of temperature and moisture conditions was produced using the CORDEX climate modeling data for climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. It is shown that an increase of mean annual air temperature at the stations will occur mainly due to increasing of winter temperatures in both scenarios. The average annual precipitation sum will increase insignificantly, but will be observed the opposite trends in winter and summer precipitation. Evaluation of spatial and temporal distribution of drought using drought index SPEI showed that expected a general increase of the regional aridity during the studied period. Weak droughts will be prevail in both scenarios with amount about 7-11 cases per 31 years. At the same time, under the relatively mild scenario RCP4.5 the droughts are predicted more intensive, and under both scenarios the total number of moderate and severe droughts increases on time scales more than one year. The time course of dry and wet periods almost the opposite between scenarios, but in both scenarios is expected an increase of duration and intensity of drought episodes after mid of 2030s.
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Spatial and temporal distribution of dry conditions in Ukraine for the period 2000-2013 was studied using the normalized difference vegetation index and vegetation condition index, which are the products of Earth satellite sensing. It was found the prevalence of spring droughts in all agroclimatic zones with a maximum of frequency and intensity in the eastern Steppe. A comparing of the crop yield of winter wheat and spring barley with anomalies of vegetation index showed significant crop reduction in the years when the value of vegetation index in April-June was less then the average.
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The results of complex analysis of temperature and precipitation records, and synoptic processes, which are led to droughty weather conditions in Ukraine an autumn 2011 are reviewed. Definition of drought intensity has been produced using the numerical characteristics, such as a hydrothermal coefficient by Selyaninov, index of drought by Ped’, standardized precipitation index. It was showed that the most difficult weather conditions are formed in the western and south regions of Ukraine under influence of prevailing anticyclones circulation of the atmosphere.
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Spatiotemporal features of drought distribution in the Ukraine territory are investigated for the period from 1943 to 2002 with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The repeatability of months with droughts and droughts themselves, as well as their intensity and duration are analyzed. It is shown that there have been changes in aridity (or humidification) climate in the territory of Ukraine, and these changes were not uniform in different regions.
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Some aspects of formation of intensive droughts conditions in summer of 2010 over the eastern Europe
The conditions of large-scale drought have been investigated, and temperature anomalies in Ukraine in July-August 2010 against the backdrop of contemporary changes in global and regional climate.
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Определены индексы засух (нормированный индекс осадков) для территории Украины в 1950-2009 годы. Показано, что в отдельных областях юга и центра Украины произошло резкое увеличение количества месяцев с засухами. При помощи анализа разладки выявлено, что в 1960-80 и 1990-2000 годах произошли резкие изменения средней величины, причем над югом Украины со второй половины 1990-х годов имеет место тренд к увеличению количества и интенсивности засух.
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