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References
- V.G. Margaryan, M.S. Mkhitaryan Assessment and analysis of heat provision vulnerability in the main wine-producing region of Armenia (Ararat valley and foot-hill area) within the context of expected climate change
- N.V. Danilova Evaluation of the influence of climate change on the productivity of millet in the central part of Ukraine
- N.S. Loboda, N.D. Otchenash, O.M. Hryb Description of artificial reservoirs within the catchment area of the Great Kuyalnik river and regulation of their operation at the present time and in future
- Hrynchak V. V. Analysis of climate change in Dnipropetrovsk region
- Polevoy A. N., Bozhko L. E., Barsukova E. A. Impact of climat changes on agro-climatic indices of the vegetative period of main agricultural crops
- Zhygailo О. L., Zhygailo Т. S. Modeling of sunflower’s productivity under future climate changes in Ukraine considering the scenarios of RCP antropogenic impact
- Balabukh V., Khokhlov V. Problems and prospects of climatology development in Ukraine
- Balabukh V.O., Zibtsev S.V. Impact of climate change on quantity and area of forest fires in the northern part of the black sea region of Ukraine
- Khokhlov V.N. Quantitative description of European climate change during second half of XX century.
- Zhygailo, О.L. and T.S. Zhygailo Evaluation of climate change influence on agroclimatic conditions of sunflower growing in Ukraine
- Danilova, N.V. Assessment of changes of agro-climatic conditions for cultivation of millet in the southern regions of Ukraine resulted from climate change
- Pol’ovyi А.M., Bozhko L.Yu. Thermal resources of Ukraine in the conditions of climate change
Papers
The paper reviews and assesses heat provision conditions of Armenia’s main wine-producing region (Ararat Valley and foothill area), analyzes the patterns of temporal distribution of heat provision and determines how they are affected by the global climate change.
It demonstrates increase of active temperatures observed in the main wine-producing region.
- Baghdasaryan, A.B. (1958). The climate of Armenian SSR. Yrevan: Publ. House of the Armenian SSR Academy of Sciences.
- Ayvazyan, P.K., Ayvazian, G., Barseghyan, Mr. (2015). The main grape varieties spreaded in Armenia. Viticulture and wine production specialization and distribution of varieties. Manual. Yerevan: ALIS.
- Fulga, I.G. (1989). Fundamentals of viticulture and fruit growing. 2nd ed., revised and completed. Moscow: Agropromizdat.
- Mkrtchyan, R.S., Melkonian, D.H., Badalyan, V.H. (2011). Agroclimatic resources of Armenia. MES of Armenia & Hydrometeorological and Monitoring Service of Armenia “Armstatehydromet”. Yerevan: Lusabats.
- Margaryan, V.G. (2016). The dynamics change of average annual values of air temperature in instrumental period (on the pattern of mountainous territory of the Republic of Armenia). The Conference Global Climate Observation: the Road to the Future, 2-4 March, Amsterdam, pp. 37-38. Available at: Abstracts_GCOS_Science_Conference_2-4March2016.pdf (accessed: 20.06.2016).
- Margaryan, V.G. (2017). The problems of change climate conditions for the period of over the last century over mountainous territory of Armenian Republic. Abstract book: Zaragoza 5th Open Science Meeting. Global challenges for our Common Future a Paleoscience Perspective, 9-13 May, Zaragoza, Spain, p. 310.
- Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia (2015). Armenia’s Third National Communication on Climate Change. Yerevan: Lusabats.
- Margaryan, V.G., Guloyan, G.V. (2017). The vulnerability and risk assessment of agricultural crops in the conditions of expected climate change in the Republic of Armenia. Book of Abstracts: MACSUR Science Conference, 22–24 May, Berlin, p. 103.
- Margaryan, V.G., Mkhitaryan, M.S. (2017). Assessment of viticulture and winemaking vulnerability in the expected conditions of climate change in Ararat valley and foothills. Book of Abstracts: MACSUR Science Conference, 22–24 May, Berlin, p. 102.
- Margaryan, V.G., Mkhitaryan, M.S., Simonyan, L.M. (2017). Assessment and analysis of heat–providing vulnerability of main viticulture industrial region of Armenia in expected climate change. International conference landscape dimensions of sustainable development: science – planning – governance. Book of Abstracts. ICLDS-2017, 4-6 October, Tbilisi, Georgia, pp. 69-70.
Climate change is a change of climatic conditions in the global atmosphere and on the Earth in general (or within its individual zones or territories) caused directly or indirectly due by the human activity on the planet, which are overlaid on the natural climatic variations (fluctuations) and observed during comparable periods of time.
Both the climate of Ukraine and the global climate are changing, but warming within our territory progresses even faster than in other regions of the Northern Hemisphere.
Ukraine in general and southern regions in particular are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change – droughts, extremely high temperatures, inefficient precipitation, reduced irrigated area cause of precipitation amount and regime, severer and more long-lasting droughts, reduced water availability.
The majority of arable land in Ukraine are located in zones of unstable and insufficient humidity, it is quite possible that for plant growing, especially for growing winter crops and early spring crops, climate change will rather have a positive effect than negative one.
Among the main types of cereals millet is the most common one. It is valuable for its groats, which is known by its high eating quality.
Millet as a fast-growing crop having a certain agrotechnical importance: it is used as a backup crop for re-sowing dead winter crops and is suitable for stubble and post-harvest sowing, it also can be used as a cover culture for perennial grass.
Millet is one of the most drought-resistant and heat-resistant crops. It is able to withstand heat injuries which is very important in arid areas and during dry years, when other grain crops have reduced yield. Millet suffers less from pests and diseases than other crops.
The task was to evaluate the agro-climatic conditions of millet crops formation in the central part of Ukraine under conditions of climate change. The study of the impact of climate change on the formation of millet productivity for different time intervals was performed by comparing the data of the RCP scenario and the average long-term climatic and agro-climatic parameters. The influence of agroclimatic conditions on the dynamics of increase of agroecological yield of different levels is also assessed.
- Adamenko, T.I., Kulbida, M.I., Prokopenko, A.L. (Eds). (2011). Ahroklimatychnyi dovidnyk po terytorii Ukrainy [Agroclimatic reference book for territories of Ukraine]. Kamianets-Podilsk. (in Ukr.)
- Adamenko, T.I. (2014). Ahroklimatychne zonuvannia terytorii Ukrainy z vrakhuvanniam zminy klimatu [Agro-climatic zoning of Ukraine taking into account climate change]. Kyiv: VEGO «MAMA-86». (in Ukr.)
- Ivani Zhuzhanna. (October 2015). Pidvyshchennia stiikosti do zminy klimatu silskohospodarskoho sektoru Pivdnia Ukrainy [Increased resistance to climate change agricultural sector of the South Ukraine]. Sentendre, Hungary. (in Ukr.)
- Stepanenko, S.M., Pol’ovyi, A.M., Demianiuk, O.S., Dronova, O.O. (2014). [Changes in the precipitation regime in Ukraine]. Ahroekoloh. ž. [Agroecolog. J.], 02, 10-16. (in Ukr.)
- Pol’ovyi, A.M. (2012). Otsinka vplyvu zmin klimatu na zminy ahroklimatychnykh resursiv Luhanskoho rehionu, umovy rostu ta produktyvnist silskohospodarskykh kultur i pryrodnoi roslynnosti. Rekomendatsii shchodo adaptatsii do tsykh zmin [Assessing the impact of climate change on changes in agro-climatic resources of Lugansk region, the conditions of growth and productivity of crops and natural vegetation. Recommendation to adapt to these changest]. Odesa. (in Ukr.)
- Detlef, P. Van Vuuren. (2014). Representative Concentration Pathways. Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving.
- Sultan, B., Roudier, P., Quirion, P., Alhassane, A., Muller, B., Dingkuhn, M. et al. (2013). Assessing climate change impacts on sorghum and millet yields in the Sudanian and Sahelian savannas of West Africa. Enviroment Research Leters, 8(1). DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014040
- Uvirkaa Akumaga, Aondover Tarhule, Claudio Piani, Bouba Traore, Ado A. Yusuf. (2018). Utilizing Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Adaptation Options in the Niger River Basin, West Africa. Agronomy, 8(2). DOI:10.3390/agronomy8020011
- Sandeep, V.M., Bapuji, B., Bharathi, G., Pramod, P., Chowdary, P.S., Patel, N.R., Vijaya Kumar, P. (2017). Projecting future changes in water requirement of grain sorghum in India. Journal of Agrometeorology, 19(3), 217-225.
- Gao1, Y., Fu, J.S., Drake, J.B., Lamarque, J.F., Liu, Y. (2013). The impact of emission and climate change on ozone in the United States under representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 607-621.
- Jacob, D., Van den Hurk, B.JJ.M., Andre, U., Elgered, G., Fortelius, C., Graham, L.P. et al. (2001). A comprehensive model intercomparison study investigating the water budget during the BALTEX-PIDCAP period. Meteor. Atm., 77, 61-73.
- Polevoy, A.N. (1983). Teoriya i raschet produktivnosti sel’skokhozyaystvennykh kul’tur [Theory and calculation of the productivity of agricultural cultures]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat. (in Russ.)
- Tarko, A.M. (2005). Antropogennye izmeneniya global’nykh biosfernykh protsessov [Anthropogenic changes of global biosphere processes]. Moscow: FIZMATLIT. (in Russ.)
- Pol’ovyi, A.M. (2007). Modeliuvannia hidrometeorolohichnoho rezhymu ta produktyvnosti ahroekosystem [Modeling of hydrometeorological regimes and agro-ecosystems’ productivity]. Kyiv: KNT. (in Ukr.)
The paper presents the results of surveys of artificial reservoirs of the Great Kuyalnik River and its tributaries which, due to their considerable number and filling volumes, significantly reduce the runoff of the river and thus cause shallowing of the Kuyalnik Liman and deterioration of its hydroecological state. Preparation of a list of artificial reservoirs within the catchment area of the Great Kuyalnik River took place using the data of the Odessa Regional Water Resources Administration and satellite images taken from Google Earth and Google Maps applications. Water surface areas and volume of unexplored water bodies were determined via generalization of existing data for other reservoirs using the invariance postulates considering the morphology of the arid zone. It was established that, as of 2016, the total number of artificial reservoirs is 121 with a total filling volume constituting 15.98 million m3. Using the climate-runoff model the characteristics of the natural runoff (not disturbed by economic activity) were estimated for periods before warming and for 2021-2050 (scenario A1B). To assess a degree of influence of artificial reservoirs on the state of the ecosystem the accumulation coefficient is calculated. It is shown that the coefficient of water accumulation in artificial reservoirs increased from 0.76 in past century to 1.23 after warming (scenario A1B). This circumstance indicates a tendency towards lack of free (unregulated) runoff in the river and formation of its deficit. The loss of runoff because of filling of artificial reservoirs exceeds the runoff of certain tributaries and ultimately the river’s runoff itself. This leads to reduction and complete cessation of fresh water entering into the Kuyalnik Liman which gradually dries up. In order to regulate the impact of artificial reservoirs on the river’s runoff it is necessary to determine permissible (limiting) volumes of their filling. These volumes were defined as 10 and 25 percent of the natural annual runoff. The natural (not disturbed by economic activity) annual runoff of the river was calculated on the basis of the climate-runoff model using meteorological data. Under conditions of warming the natural runoff of the river and the associated permissible (limiting) volumes would decrease which would require reduction of an even greater number of ponds.
- Loboda, N.S., Gopchenko, E.D. (Eds). (2016). Vodnyy rezhym ta hidroekolohichni kharakterystyky Kuyal’nyts’koho lymanu [Water regime and hydroecological characteristics of Kuyalnitskyi Liman]. OSENU. Odessa: TES. (in Ukr.)
- Stepanenko, S.M., Pol’ovyy, A.M. (Eds). (2015). Klimatychni zminy ta yikh vplyv na sfery ekonomiky Ukrainy [Climate changes and its impact on sectors of the economy of Ukraine]. Odessa. (in Ukr.)
- Gopchenko, E.D. (Scient. chief). (2011). Stan hidrohrafichnoi merezhi richky Velykyi Kuialnyk v umovakh vodohospodarskykh peretvoren na ii vodozbirnomu baseini: Zvit pro NDR (zakliuchnyi). DR 0110U008222 [State of the hydrographic network of the Great Kuyalnik River in the conditions of water management changes on its catchment basin: Research report (final). SR 00110U008222]. Odessa State Environmental University. Odesa. (in Ukr.)
- State Committee for Water Management of Ukraine. (1992). Pasport reki Bolshoy Kuyalnik [Passport of the Great Kuyalnik River]. Odessa. (in Russ.)
- Loboda, N.S. (Scient. chief). (2016). Naukovo-doslidni roboty z obstezhennia rusla richky Velykyi Kuialnyk: Zvit pro NDR (zakliuchnyi). DR 0115U000631 [Scientific works on the servey of the Big Kuyalnik waterbed : Research report (final). SR 0115U000631]. Odessa State Environmental University. Odesa. (in Ukr.)
- Suputnykovi znimky ta karty poverkhni vody [Satellite images and maps of the Earth’s surface]. Available at: https://www.google.com.ua/maps (accessed: 10.04.2018). (in Ukr.)
- Moldovanov, A.I. (1965). [The postulates of invariance in the morphology of reservoirs and their practical application]. Meteorologiya, klimatologiya i gidrologiya [Meteorology, climatology and hydrology], I, 164-190. (in Russ.)
- Gopchenko, E.D., Loboda, N.S. (1965). [Influence of ponds and reservoirs on characteristics of annual flow of rivers in the zone of insufficient humidification]. Meteorologiya, kli-matologiya i gidrologiya [Meteorology, climatology and hydrology], 4, 83-88. (in Russ.)
- Loboda, N.S. (Scient. chief). (2016). Kompleksne upravlinnia vodnymy resursamy baseinu Kuialnytskoho lymanu ta yoho hidroekolohichnym stanom v umovakh hospodarskoi diialnosti i klimatychnykh zmin: Zvit pro NDR (zakliuchnyi). DR 0115U000631 [Integrated management of water resources and hydroecological state of Kuyalnitsky liman under water economic activity and climate change: Research report (final). SR 0115U000631]. Odessa State Environmental University. Odesa. (in Ukr.)
- Tuchkovenko, Yu.S., Loboda, N.S., Kushnir, D.V. (2017). [Results of numerical modeling of intra-year variability of the hydrological characteristics of the Kuyalnitsky liman for different volumes of the river flow of the Big Kuyalnik]. Ukraïnsʹkij gìdrometeorologìčnij žurnal [Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal], 20, 105-119. (in Ukr.)
- Tuchkovenko, Yu.S., Loboda, N.S., Hryb, O.M. (2017). [Integrated water resources management of the Kuyalnitsky Liman basin and its hydroecological state in terms of economic activity and climate change]. Abstracts of the International Scientific and Practical Conference, 21-23 september. Zaporizhzhia, pp. 124-125. (in Ukr.)
- Loboda, N.S., Bozhok, Yu.V. (2015). [Impact of climate change on water resources of the catchment of the Kuyalnitsky Liman in scenic climatic conditions]. Ukraïnsʹkij gìdrometeorologìčnij žurnal [Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal], 16, 189-195. (in Ukr.)
- Otchenash, N.D. (2015). [Justification of the choice of a regional climatic model for analyzing climate change and water resources within the catchment area of the Kuyalnitsky Liman]. Vìsnik Odesʹkogo deržavnogo ekologìčnogo unìversitetu [Bulletin of Odessa state environmental university], 19, 120-125. (in Ukr.)
- Tuchkovenko, Yu. S., Loboda, N. S. (Eds). (2014). Vodni resursy ta hidroekolohichnyi stan Tylihulskoho lymanu [Water resources and hydroecological condition of Tyligulsky Liman]. Odessa. (in Ukr.)
The decision about writing this article was made after familiarization with the “Brief Climatic Essay of Dnepropetrovsk City (prepared based on observations of 1886 – 1937)” written by the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Weather Department of the Hydrometeorological Service A. N. Mikhailov.
The guide has a very interesting fate: in 1943 it was taken by the Nazis from Dnipropetrovsk and in 1948 it returned from Berlin back to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological and Environmental Directorate of the USSR, as evidenced by a respective entry on the Essay’s second page.
Having these invaluable materials and data of long-term weather observations in Dnipro city we decided to analyze climate changes in Dnipropetrovsk region.
The article presents two 50-year periods, 1886-1937 and 1961-2015, as examples. Series of observations have a uniform and representative character because they were conducted using the same methodology and results processing.
We compared two main characteristics of climate: air temperature and precipitation.
The article describes changes of average annual temperature values and absolute temperature values. It specifies the shift of seasons’ dates and change of seasons’ duration.
We studied the changes of annual precipitation and peculiarities of their seasonable distribution. Apart from that peculiarities of monthly rainfall fluctuations and their heterogeneity were specified.
Since Dnipro city is located in the center of the region the identified tendencies mainly reflect changes of climatic conditions within the entire Dnipropetrovsk region.
- Mikhailov A. N. Brief Climatic Essay of Dnipropetrovsk (compiled on observations materials since 1886 to 1937). The Weather Service Sector of Dnipropetrovsk Hydrometeorological Department, 1938, 56 р. (In Russian, unpublished)
- Materials on Observations of The Dnepropetrovsk Civil Aviation Meteorological Station for the period of 1961-2015. The Dnipropetrovsk Regional Centre of Hydrometeorology, 2016, 600 р. (In Ukrainian, unpublished)
Article in question investigates indicators of the moisture-temperature regime for the period of 1986 – 2005 (base period) and compares them to their expected changes calculated for different scenarios of climate change GFDL-30 %, A1B, A2, RCP4,5 and RCP8,5 for the period of 2021 – 2050 on the territory of Ukraine. Calculations reviled that most abrupt changes in moisturetemperature indicators in different soil-climatic zones of Ukraine can be expected in case of scenarios GFDL-30 %, А1В and А2. In case of scenarios of climate change RСР4,5, RСР8,5 thermal indicators are expected to be at the level of multilevel averages in all natural and climatic zones of Ukraine, except for Southern Steppe, where they are expected to grow. The greatest changes in all areas are expected under scenario GFDL-30 %, and they will increase from north to south. Under scenario А1В the greatest difference between calculated values and average multi-year values will be observed in the Forest-Steppe zone and in the Southern Steppe. Under scenarios RCP4,5 и RCP8,5 significant changes in the temperature regime are predicted only for the south and east of Ukraine. At the same time, according to the scenario of RCP4.5, a significant increase in seasonal winter air temperatures is forecasted.
Analysis of the results of calculations for different climatic scenarios of water availability indicators for different natural and climatic zones of Ukraine for the period from 2021 to 2050 reviled that the most drastic changes in the climatic parameters of humidification are expected in the case of the scenarios GFDL-30 %, A1B and A2. In case of climate change scenarios RCP4.5, RCP8.5, no quick changes in the distribution of precipitation over the territory of Ukraine should be expected. The greatest amount of precipitation for the year and in average for the seasons of the year is projected for the western regions of the country, the least one – for the southern regions. At the same time, for most regions the trend to increase the amount of precipitation is most likely in the case of the development of the GFDL-30 %, A1B and A2 scenarios. However, according to the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, rainfall is expected to decline for the year as a whole and especially in the summer season in comparison with the actual for 1986 – 2005.
- Adamenko T. I., Kul’bida M. I., Prokopenko A. L. (Eds). Ahroklimatychnyy dovidnyk po terytoriiy Ukraiyny [An agroclimatic reference book on territories of Ukraine]. Kamyanets-Podilsk, 2011. 107 p.
- Stepanenko S. M., Pol’ovyy A. M. Otsinka vplyvu klimatychnykh zmin na haluzi ekonomiky Ukrainy [An estimation of influence of climatic changes on industry of economy of Ukraine]. Odessa: Ekolohiya, 2011. 694 p.
- Israhel Ya, Antokhin Ya etc. Consequences of climate change for Russia. Sostoyanie i kompleksnyy monitoring prirodnoy sredy i klimata. Predely izmeneniy [The State and complex monitoring of natural environment and climate. Limits of changes]. Moscow: Nauka, 2001, pp. 40-64. (In Russian)
- Krakovs’ka S. V., Palamarchuk L. V., Shedemenko I. P., Dyukel’ G. O., Gnatyuk N. V. Nauk. pratsi UkrNDGMIProc. UkrSRHMI, 2008, no. 257. pр. 42-60. (In Ukrainian)
- Loginov V. F. Prichiny i sledstviya klimaticheskikh izmeneniy [Causes and effects of climatic changes].
Minsk: Navuka i tekhnika, 1992. 230 p. - Semenov S. M. (Ed.). Metody otsenki posledstviy izmeneniya klimata dlya fizicheskikh i biologicheskikh sistem [Methods of estimation of consequences of change of climate for fisical and biological systems]. Moscow, 2012. 511 p.
- Polevoy A. N. Teoriya i raschet produktivnosti sel’skokhozyaystvennykh kul’tur [Theory and calculation of
the productivity of agricultural cultures]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1983. 175 p. - Pol’ovyy A. M. Sil’s’kohospodars’ka meteorolohija [Agricultural meteorology]. Odessa. «TES», 2012. 635 p.
- Tarko A. M. Antropogennye izmeneniya global’nykh biosfernykh protsessov [Anthropogenic changes of global biosphere processes]. Moscow: FYZMATLYT, 2005. 231 p.
- Vasyl’chenko V. V., Rashchun M. V., Trohymova I. V. Ukraina ta global’nyy parnykovyy efekt. Knyha 2. Vrazlyvist’ i adaptatsiya ekolohichnykh ta ekonomichnykh system do zminy klimatu [Ukraine and global hotbed effect. Book 2. Impressionability and adaptation of the ecological and economic systems to the change of climate]. Kyiv: Agency for Rational Energy Use and Ecology, 1998. 208 p.
- Christensen J. H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R. K. Kolli, W.-T. Kwon, R. Laprise, V. Magaña Rueda, L. Mearns, C. G. Menéndez, J. Räisänen, A. Rinke, A. Sarr, P. Whetton. Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of WG I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007. 94 p. (Eds: Solomon S. D., Qin M., Manning Z., Chen M., Mar-quis K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller ).
- Jacob D., B. JJ .M. Van den Hurk, U. Andre, G. Elgered, C. Fortelius, L. P. Graham, S. D. Jackson, U. Karstens, Chr. Kopken, R. Lindau, R. Podzun, B. Rockel, F. Rubel, B. H. Sass, R. N. B. Smith, X. Yang. A comprehensive model inter-comparison study investigating the water budget during the BALTEX-PIDCAP period. Meteor. Atm., 2001, no. 77, pp. 61-73.
- Roeckner E., K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, M. Cristoph, M. Claussen, L. Dumenil, M. Esch, U. Schlese, U. Schulzweida. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck-Institute fur Meteorologie, Report. 1996, no. 218.
Climate change is one of the major global issues. Climate is one of the most significant factors
determining the level of crop yields, including sunflower crops. Currently the sunflower planting
acreage in Ukraine has already reached its maximum value. Therefore the potential for increasing sunflower production should be aimed at increasing its yield.
To assess the impact of climate change on sunflower productivity the article considers modern scenarios of RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) such as RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. They belong to the scenarios of medium and high levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios cover the climatic period from 2021 to 2050. In order to conduct a comparative analysis of scenario meteorological values with previous data from the Agroclimatic Reference Book of Ukraine, the period from 1986 to 2005 was taken. It serves as a basic period for calculations.
Calculations were made for the following natural and climatic zones of Ukraine: East Forest-Steppe, Northern and Southern Steppe.
The article studies the influence of agroclimatic conditions on sunflower cultivation as per two interphase periods: shoots – blooming and blooming – picking maturity.
Study of sunflower productivity formation was carried out using a mathematical model of the water-heat regime and sunflower productivity. The model is based on the system of equations of radiation, heat and water balances and biomass balance in vegetation cover.
According to calculations a lowered temperature regime and sufficient moisture in the first half of sunflower vegetation season will favor the formation of leaves way more than during the basic period within the entire area under study. However, expected arid conditions in the second half of vegetation period will cause a very low sunflower moisture availability during this period which would lead to reduction of sunflower seeds’ crop-producing power. Analysis of agroclimatic conditions during vegetation season from sunflower shoots to its picking maturity showed that implementation of both scenarios would ensure expected weather conditions to be more favorable for sunflower growing in the eastern forest-steppe zone of Ukraine. The greatest risk of sunflower crops shortfall in certain years is expected in the southern steppe zone of Ukraine and significant losses should be expected in case of scenario RCP4.5 implementation.
- Mokhov I. I., Yeliseyev A. V. Modeling of global climate changes in the XX_XXIII centuries under new scenarios of anthropogenic impacts of RCP. Doklady akademii nauk [Reports of the Academy of Sciences], 2012, vol. 443, no. 6, pp. 732–736.
- Sereda K. Izmenenie klimata (Ukraina): ozhydaniya, prognozy, perspektivy [Climate change (Ukraine): expectations, forecasts, prospects]. http://awsassets.panda.org./downloads/kirill_sereda.pdf.
- Stepanenko S. M., Pol’ovyy A. M. Klimatychni zminy ta ikh vplyv na sfery ekonomiky Ukrayiny [Climate change and its influence on industry of economy of Ukraine]. Odessa: “TES”, 2015. 520 p.
- Sirotenko O. D. The future of agriculture in Russia due to expected climate changes. Problemy ekologicheksogo monitoringa i modelirovaniya agroekosistem [Environmental monitoring problems and ecosystem modeling], 2000, vol. XVII, pp. 258-274. (In Russian)
- Tkalich I. D. Tkalich YU. I., Rychik S. G. Tsvetok solntsa (osnovy biologii i agrotekhniki podsolnechnika)ю Dnepropetrovsk, 2011. 172 р. (Ed.: I. D. Tkalich)
- IS-ENES climate4impact portal. URL: http://climate4impact.eu
- Pol’ovyy A. M. Modelyuvannya hidrometeorolohichnoho rezhymu ta produktyvnosti ahroekosystem [Modeling of hydro-meteorological regimes and agro-ecosystems’ productivity]. Kyiv: KNT, 2007. 344 p.
- Khvalenskiy Yu. A. Sirotenko O. D. Polevoy A. N. Dinamicheskoe modelirovanie v agrometeorologii [The dynamic modeling in agrometeorology]. Leningrad, 1982. 145 p.
- Adamenko T. I., Kul’bida M. I., Prokopenko A. L. (Eds). Ahroklimatychnyy dovidnyk po terytoriyi Ukrayiny [An agroclimatic reference book on territories of Ukraine]. Kamyanets- Podilsk, 2011.107 p.
The article analyzes the current state of climatology in Ukraine, the problems and prospects for its development. It is shown that although Ukraine the signed the Paris Agreement and this fact is very important for the development of modern climatology, Ukraine’s state policy on climate change has a fragmented character and is currently considered exclusively as a component of environmental policy. The lack of systems approach to the problem of climate change makes it impossible to make management decisions on actions for climate change adaptation and mitigation at the scale of whole economy of Ukraine. At the same time, the new tasks, which are due to the expediency of ratification by Ukraine of the Paris Agreement and the further implementation of its provisions,
require the development of a coherent and consistent state policy on climate change.
The main scientific directions of the development of climate services in Ukraine are presented in accordance with the Global Framework for Climate Services. The main tasks for each element of climate services – a platform for interaction with users, an information system for climate services, observing and monitoring systems, capacity development – are outlined for Ukraine, problems are indicated and prospective directions of development are proposed.
- The Global Risks.Report 2017. World Economic Forum, Geneva. 2017. 78 р. World Economic Forum.
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GRR17_Report_web.pdf - Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of December 7, 2016 No. 932-r “About approval of the Concept of sale of state policy in the sphere of climate change for the period till 2030”. Government portal.
http://www.kmu.gov.ua/control/uk/ cardnpd?docid=249573705 (In Ukrainian). - Climate knowledge for action: a global framework for climate services – Empowering the most vulnerable. World Meteorological Organization, 2011, no. 1065. 293 p. http://www.uncclearn.org/sites/default/files/inventory/wmo01_5_0.pdf (In Russian)
- Implementation Plan for the Global Framework for Climate Services. World Meteorological Organization, 2014. 96 p. https://www.wmo.int/gfcs/sites/default/files/implementationplan//GFCS-IMPLEMENTATION-PLAN-4211_ru.pdf (In Russian)
- Strategic framework for adaptation to climate change in the Dniester River Basin. UNECE, 2015. 72 p.
https://ehlm.unece.org/pages/viewpage.action?pageId=22741054 (In Russian) - Implementation plan: Strategic framework for adaptation to climate change in the Dniester basin. Zoï Environment Network, 2017. 76 p. http://www.zoinet.org/web/sites/default/files/publications/Dniester-web.pdf. (In Russian).
- Shtyasnyy P., Lapin M., Balabukh V. Adaptatsiya do zminy klimatu [Adapting to climate change]. Carpathian Institute of Development; Agency for the Promotion of the Sustainable Development of the Carpathian Region “FORZA”. 2015. 88 p. http://www.forza.org.ua/sites/default/files/global_climate_changes_training_manual_ua_screen_final.pdf
- Kyyivs’ka mis’ka stratehiya. Poperedzhennya ta adaptatsiya do zminy klimatu: proekt. [Kiev city strategy. Preventing and adaptation to climate change: project]. The Taras Shevchenko university of Kyiv. 2013.188 p.
- Balabukh V. O., Zhyla S. M., Orlov O. O., Yaremchenko O. A Vrazlyvi ekosystemy Polis’koho pryrodnohozapovidnyka ta yoho okolyts’ v umovakh hlobal’noho poteplinnya: problemy ta shlyakhy vyrishennya [Vulnerable ecosystems Polissya Nature Reserve and its surroundings in terms of global warming: Problems and ways of solution]. Kyiv: Publ. TOV «NVP Interservis», 2013. 92 p.
- Otsinka vplyvu klimatychnykh zmin na haluzi ekonomiky Ukrayiny [Estimation of climate change impact on Ukrainian economy]. Odessa: Ekolohiya, 2011. 694 p. (Eds: S. M. Stepanenko, A. M. Polevoy).
- Klimatychni zminy ta yikh vplyv na sfery ekonomiky Ukrayiny [Climate change and its impact on Ukrainian economy]. Odessa: Publ “TES”, 2015. 518 p. (Eds: S. M. Stepanenko, A. M. Polevoy).
- Coastal Lagoons in Europe. Integrated Water Resource Management. London: IWA Publishing, 2015. 227p.
(Eds: Ana I. Lillebø, Per Stålnacke, Geoffrey D. Gooch).
The aim of this study consists in assessment of impact of change of thermal regime, air moisture and weather phenomena on quantity and area of forest fires in the northern part of the Black Sea Region of Ukraine, their possible changes and consequences by the middle of XXI century with regard to modern climatic period for SRESA1B scenario and setting of some proportion of uncertainty of these changes.
The study of regional peculiarities of climate change was performed on the basis of daily meteorological observations over the period of 1961-2013 in the context of Kherson region. To assess impact of weather conditions on fire safety data on number of forest fires and their area in the region over 1996-2013 (about 4 000 cases of fire) were used. The study was carried out using regression and correlation analysis. Calculation projections of climate characteristics’ change resulting in forest fires was performed for the period of 2021-2050 with relation to modern climatic period (1981-2010) using the data of regional climate model REMO with resolution of 25 km initiated by ECHAM5 global model calculation.
It was found that number and area of forest fires in the northern part of the Black Sea Region of Ukraine is largely dependent on thermal regime, moisture and wind regime. Influence of temperature appears to be decisive and affects area of fires rather than their number. For example, increase of annual / summer average air temperature by 1°C can lead to increase of average area of fire almost by 110% and 90% respectively and increase of number of days with atmospheric drought and heat (maximum temperature above 30°C) by 10 days can cause increase of average area of fires by 130% and 80%. At the same time air temperature in September and October has a significant impact on number of fires: increase of monthly average air temperature by 1°C can lead to increase of number of fires by 20%.
Climate change analysis conducted in Kherson oblast resulted in finding that over the recent decades the region faced a significant change of thermal regime, moisture and wind regime, recurrence of weather phenomena affecting number and area of forest fires. These changes led to increase of fire risks in the region. Evaluation of possible changes of these characteristics by the middle of the XXI century showed that the under SRES A1B scenario the region might expect further increase of temperature throughout the year, growth of number of hot days and duration of sultry period. Since these processes are accompanied by increase of duration of dry period these changes will significantly affect fire risk increase – number of forest fires and their area by the middle of the XXI century in Kherson region may significantly grow.
Obtained results can be used to develop plans for adaptation to climate change.
- Pachauri R. K., Rayzinger A., etc. (Eds). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Switzelend: IPCC, 2007. 104 p. (In Russian)
- Chaba Matiasha (Ed.). Lesa i izmenenie klimata v Vostochnoy Evrope i Tsentral’noy Azii [Forest and Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia]. Rim, 2010. 209 p.
- Mokhov I. I., Chernokul’skiy A. V., Shkol’nik I. M. Regional model assessments of fire risk at the global climate. Doklady Akademii Nauk – Acad. of Science Reports, 2006, vol. 411A, no. 6, pp. 1-5. (In Russian)
- Ukraine’s Fifth National Communication on Climate Change prepared for execution of articles 4 and 12 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and Article 7 of the Kyoto Protocol. Kiev, 2009. 367 p. (In Russian). http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/ukr_nc5.pdf
- Hodakov V. E., Zharikova M. V. Lesnye pozhary: metody issledovaniya [Kherson National Technical University]. Kherson: Grin’ D.S., 2011. 470 p.
- Ukraine’s Sixth National Communication on Climate Change prepared for execution of articles 4 and 12 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and Article 7 of the Kyoto Protocol. Kiev, 2012. 342 p. (In Russian). http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports
- Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. IPCC Working Group I Contribution to AR5: Approved Summary for Policymakers. URL: http://www.climate2013.org/spm.
- ENSEMBLES Final Report: Ensembles data archives. URL: http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com
- Zibtsev S. Ukraine forest fire report 2010. International Forest Fire News (IFFN), 2010, no. 40, pp. 61–75.
Methodology for calculation of aggregate climate change index which taking into account abnormal events in the temperature and precipitation is described. The method is used for Europe. It is shown that greatest climate change during 1978-2006 years occurred in the Central Europe, Western and Central Mediterranean, and Pyrenees.
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522 с.
2. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers –
Geneva: IPCC, 2007 – 18 p.
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change may be most prominent in the 21st century // Geophys. Res. Lett., 2007. – V. 34. –
L01705.
The problem of climate change and global warming both in whole and in particular has become one of the most serious and urgent directions of scientific and technical activity at the present stage. The future food security of Ukraine depends on the effectiveness of adaptation of agriculture to new conditions dictated by the global anthropogenic warming. In order to evaluate possible impact of climate change in Ukraine on agroclimatic indicators the scenario A1B – “moderate” was used providing a balance between all energy sources. Researches of sunflower harvest formation are carried out using a dynamic model of agricultural crops productivity. For a comparative analysis of scenary meteorological variables with previous data the period from 1986 to 2005 is taken from agroclimatic directory of Ukraine. It serves as a base when performing calculations. According to calculations of A1B climate change scenario, periods of sowing and subsequent phases of development will occur earlier than at present, which will lead to reduction of the whole vegetation period at most parts of the area under study. As a result of comparative analysis of temperature and precipitation regime it was found that, subject to implementation of the climate change scenario under study, expected weather conditions will be more favourable for cultivation of sunflower in the Western and Central forest-steppe, as well as at the Right-Bank Ukraine and in the Donetsk sub-zone of Northern steppe of Ukraine.
- Adamenko T.I., Kul’bida M.I., Prokopenko A.L. (Eds). Ahroklimatychnyy dovidnyk po terytorii’ Ukrai’ny [An agroclimatic reference book on the Ukraine territory]. Kam’yanets’-Podil’s’k, 2011. 107 p.
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- Logvinov V.F. Izmeneniya klimata Belarusi i ikh posledstviya [Climate changes in Belarus and their consequences]. Minsk: Tonpik, 2003.
- Stepanenko S.M., Pol’ovyy A.M. (Eds). Klimatychni zminy ta ikh vplyv na sfery ekonomiky Ukrai’ny [Climate changes and their influence on sphere of the Ukraine economy]. Odesa: “TES”, 2015. 520 p.
- Krakovs’ka S.V., Palamarchuk L.V., Shedemenko I.P., Dukel G.O., Gnatuk N.V.] Verifіkatsіya danykh svіtovoho klіmatychnoho tsentru (CRU) ta rehіonalnoi modelі klіmatu (REMO) shchodo pryzemnoi temperatury povitrya za kontrol’nyy perіod 1961-1990 pp [Data verification of global climate center (CRU) and regional climate model (REMO) on surface air temperature for the controlling period 1961-1990]. Nauk. pratsi UkrNDGMI – Proc. UkrSRHMI, 2008, no. 257, pр. 42-60.
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- Syrotenko O.D. Budushchee sel’skogo khozyaystva Rossii v svyazi s ozhidaemymi izmeneniyami klimata [The future of agriculture in Russia due to expected climate changes]. Problemy ekologicheskogo monitoringa i modelirovaniya ekosistem [Environmental monitoring problems and ecosystem modeling], 2000, vol. XVII, pp. 258-274.
The signals of global warming are now being observed throughout the world. Data of hydrometeorological centres show a significant increase of temperature in many regions accompanied by intense frequency of dry periods. Some substantial and direct effects of climate change may be already noticed at present time. Over the next several decades they will be observed in agriculture. Increase of temperature and reduction of precipitation volumes will probably lead to decrease the level of yield. These changes can significantly affect the global food security. Ukraine is known for its fertile soil and agricultural products, so it has a huge agricultural potential, contributing, in fact, to the global food security. However, the observed weather changes, increase of average temperature and uneven distribution of rainfalls can result in sharp transformation of most of agricultural and climatic zones of Ukraine. According to international processes there is an urgent need for improvement of adaptation to climate change of some branches of national economy of Ukraine, including of agriculture.
Expanding the range of types of millet used in agricultural production is an economically feasible process that should be implemented in view of significant climate changes resulting in global warming which is widely discussed in scientific literature. Rapid introduction in crop shifts of the millet that is able to withstand recurring periodic droughts, especially in the southern regions, is one of the ways allowing to overcome the consequences of such extreme conditions.
Conditions of the southern regions are favourable for millet crop. Millet is one of the most drought-resistant and heat-resistant crops that can sustain heat injuries and seizures and this is very important for arid areas during dry years, when other crops significantly reduce the level of yield.
We studied changes of agro-climatic resources and agro-climatic conditions for formation of millet productivity for various periods of time. The analysis of climate change trend was performed through comparing of data as per climatic scenarios A2 and A1B and of average long-term characteristics of climatic and agro-climatic indicators. The comparative description of millet productivity under the conditions of climate change as per average long-term data (1986-2005) and as per scenarios A2 and A1B of climate change (2011-2030 and 2031-2050) was also performed.
- Adamenko T.I., Kul’bida M.I., Prokopenko A.L. (Eds). Ahroklimatychnyy dovidnyk po terytorii’ Ukrai’ny [An agroclimatic reference book for territories of Ukraine]. Kamyanets-Podilsk, 2011. 107 p.
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Climatic changes that take place during the last decades entailed a global rise in temperature of climate. In connection with it more active the methods of prognostication of global changes develop and them possible consequences, a modern scientific association is for the estimation of future changes mainly uses four threads of story, for each of witch different scenarios were developed witch the use different conceptions of design. In the offered article this article offers comparative analysis of the thermal regime figures from 1986 to 2005, and outlines expectations for their change, calculated for the territory of Ukraine, 2011-2050, in accordance with three scenarios of climate change: GFDL-30%, A1B, and A2. Among these expectations are earlier dates for air temperatures transitioning between ranges in the spring, as well as later dates in the fall, general increase in mean air temperatures, growth in temperature sums, and changes in temperature amplitudes.
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