The Moroccan energy system is highly dependent on external energy markets. The use of solar energy is one of the most promising ways in the development of renewable energy sources. At the moment, there are several scenarios for the development of renewable energy in Morocco diverging only in quantitative assessments. All of them are aimed at increasing the generation of green energy, from the complete satisfaction of all needs of Moroccan consumers to the opportunity of exporting some of its environmentally friendly electricity to Europe. Estimation of energy efficiency of solar installations is usually carried out on the basis of calculations of solar radiation arrival in the presence of cloudless sky. Clouds significantly reduce amount of solar radiation and sunshine duration.
This study is aimed at determination of possible quantitative parameters of the total cloud cover and the areas in which the cloud cover would have the least impact on the amount of incoming solar radiation in Morocco in 2020-2050. The article presents the results of simulation of total cloud fraction using 11 regional climate models of CORDEX project for the period of 2020-2050 in Morocco. For the period of 2020-2050 the average values of total cloud fraction on the territory of Morocco will have the smallest values within the plains located near the border with Algeria on the territory of the prefecture of Sous-Massa lying at the foot of the southern slopes of the Anti-Atlas. The analysis of the annual regime of total cloud fraction showed that in the future it will be of a different nature in different parts of the country due to various factors affecting its formation. The area with the smallest volumes of monthly total cloud fraction will lie within the territory the southern part of prefecture Draa-Tafilalet and prefectures Sous-Massa, Guelmim-Oued Noun, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab excluding their coastal parts of the Atlantic Ocean.
In the future most of the territory of Morocco will be characterized by a low amount of total cloud fraction, which, in its turn, will have an insignificant effect on the amount of solar radiation entering to the underlying surface of these areas. In terms of solar power, the best conditions will exist at the southern parts of Morocco, excluding the coast where the total cloud fraction will have the least impact on the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface and on sunshine duration.
The paper reviews and assesses heat provision conditions of Armenia’s main wine-producing region (Ararat Valley and foothill area), analyzes the patterns of temporal distribution of heat provision and determines how they are affected by the global climate change.
It demonstrates increase of active temperatures observed in the main wine-producing region.
Climate change is a change of climatic conditions in the global atmosphere and on the Earth in general (or within its individual zones or territories) caused directly or indirectly due by the human activity on the planet, which are overlaid on the natural climatic variations (fluctuations) and observed during comparable periods of time.
Both the climate of Ukraine and the global climate are changing, but warming within our territory progresses even faster than in other regions of the Northern Hemisphere.
Ukraine in general and southern regions in particular are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change – droughts, extremely high temperatures, inefficient precipitation, reduced irrigated area cause of precipitation amount and regime, severer and more long-lasting droughts, reduced water availability.
The majority of arable land in Ukraine are located in zones of unstable and insufficient humidity, it is quite possible that for plant growing, especially for growing winter crops and early spring crops, climate change will rather have a positive effect than negative one.
Among the main types of cereals millet is the most common one. It is valuable for its groats, which is known by its high eating quality.
Millet as a fast-growing crop having a certain agrotechnical importance: it is used as a backup crop for re-sowing dead winter crops and is suitable for stubble and post-harvest sowing, it also can be used as a cover culture for perennial grass.
Millet is one of the most drought-resistant and heat-resistant crops. It is able to withstand heat injuries which is very important in arid areas and during dry years, when other grain crops have reduced yield. Millet suffers less from pests and diseases than other crops.
The task was to evaluate the agro-climatic conditions of millet crops formation in the central part of Ukraine under conditions of climate change. The study of the impact of climate change on the formation of millet productivity for different time intervals was performed by comparing the data of the RCP scenario and the average long-term climatic and agro-climatic parameters. The influence of agroclimatic conditions on the dynamics of increase of agroecological yield of different levels is also assessed.
The article assesses the characteristics of the annual runoff of the Baraboy River (the Odessa Region), which remains unexplored from the hydrological point of view, under natural conditions and those affected water-related activities, on the basis of the «climate-runoff» model.
The main factors of anthropogenic impact on the hydrological regime of the Baraboy River include a large number of artificial reservoirs and intensive irrigation of agricultural areas using the water resources of the Dniester River. The paper presents estimations of changes of the natural runoff of the Baraboy River in the presence of artificial reservoirs and irrigation using the resources of the donor river (the Dniester). It is shown that, under natural conditions of runoff formation, the river would have to dry out during dry and extremely dry years. Additional evaporation from the surface of artificial reservoirs contributes to a decrease of the annual runoff. Following the use of the «climate-runoff» model it was established that waste waters entering the river-bed from agricultural lands irrigated using the water resources of the donor river (the Dniester) can substantially increase the actual runoff of the Baraboy River at its mouth (by 10-30% for a several years’ period, depending on the scale of water management alterations). It is substantiated that the flow of return water, if different real areas of irrigation are taken into account, exceeds the loss of the runoff resulting from additional evaporation from the surface of artificial reservoirs. Donor irrigation provides stable parameters of river runoff during dry and extremely dry years. The disadvantage of donor irrigation is that it causes the effect of land flooding. The «climate-runoff» model allows optimization of the water management alterations ensuring the most efficient use of agricultural land, depending on the extent of its irrigation, its location within the basin, selection of main crops that need irrigation. Therefore, the next stage of research is evaluation of the quality of groundwater within the basin of the Baraboy river under conditions of donor irrigation.
The paper presents the results of surveys of artificial reservoirs of the Great Kuyalnik River and its tributaries which, due to their considerable number and filling volumes, significantly reduce the runoff of the river and thus cause shallowing of the Kuyalnik Liman and deterioration of its hydroecological state. Preparation of a list of artificial reservoirs within the catchment area of the Great Kuyalnik River took place using the data of the Odessa Regional Water Resources Administration and satellite images taken from Google Earth and Google Maps applications. Water surface areas and volume of unexplored water bodies were determined via generalization of existing data for other reservoirs using the invariance postulates considering the morphology of the arid zone. It was established that, as of 2016, the total number of artificial reservoirs is 121 with a total filling volume constituting 15.98 million m3. Using the climate-runoff model the characteristics of the natural runoff (not disturbed by economic activity) were estimated for periods before warming and for 2021-2050 (scenario A1B). To assess a degree of influence of artificial reservoirs on the state of the ecosystem the accumulation coefficient is calculated. It is shown that the coefficient of water accumulation in artificial reservoirs increased from 0.76 in past century to 1.23 after warming (scenario A1B). This circumstance indicates a tendency towards lack of free (unregulated) runoff in the river and formation of its deficit. The loss of runoff because of filling of artificial reservoirs exceeds the runoff of certain tributaries and ultimately the river’s runoff itself. This leads to reduction and complete cessation of fresh water entering into the Kuyalnik Liman which gradually dries up. In order to regulate the impact of artificial reservoirs on the river’s runoff it is necessary to determine permissible (limiting) volumes of their filling. These volumes were defined as 10 and 25 percent of the natural annual runoff. The natural (not disturbed by economic activity) annual runoff of the river was calculated on the basis of the climate-runoff model using meteorological data. Under conditions of warming the natural runoff of the river and the associated permissible (limiting) volumes would decrease which would require reduction of an even greater number of ponds.
The article presents the results of in-situ studies of the chemical composition and quality of underground (subsoil and artesian) water within the basin of the Baraboy River where irrigation of agricultural areas using the water resources of the Dniester River has been carried out since 1967. These water resources are fed into the network of reservoirs and channels of the Lower Dniester Irrigation System. Filtration losses of water from
irrigation areas and water supply and sewage systems of settlements replenish the reserves of underground (subsoil) waters increasing the ingress therein of dissolved substances from the sedimentary rocks which leads to increase in the concentrations of certain ingredients included in chemical composition of surface and underground waters within the basin of the Baraboy River. It is shown that groundwater is enriched with nitrogen compounds containing high concentrations of chlorides, sulfates, calcium and magnesium. Mineralization, toxicity and degree of contamination of underground water increase along the length of the Baraboy River. The chemical composition of the groundwater coming to the riverbed of the Baraboy River does not meet the fishing requirements and worsen the water quality of fish farming water bodies. The results of assessment of groundwater quality at the stations under study give reason to consider these sources of groundwater as an important factor affecting the hydro-chemical regime and the quality of the water of the Baraboy River and its reservoirs which should be taken into account when developing the recommendations for optimization of the current hydroecological state of the Baraboy River as a whole. If high mineralization and significant content of principle ions in groundwater can be explained by natural factors, the high level of contamination by biogenic substances is resulted from entering of industrial, domestic and return waters from irrigated areas into aquifers. Such contamination is not a temporary but a permanent phenomenon. In terms of magnesium content artesian waters used for utility and drinking water supply are recognized as «mediocre, suitable with limitations and having undesirable quality». In addition, after 50 years of operation compounds of nitrogen and phosphorus were found in artesian water, and this was not a case in 1960s of the last century. A conclusion on the negative effect of long-term donor irrigation on the quality of underground water and on the need for additional treatment of water of artesian aquifers of the Sarmatian Stage used for centralized water supply was made.
The paper outlines the mathematical structure of the numerical mathematical model of water eutrophication. The model is based on the numerical non-stationary hydrothermodynamic model MECCA (Model for Estuarine and Coastal Circulation Assessment) supplemented with a chemical-biological modular unit designed in accordance with the principles of preparation of the water quality model RCA-HydroQual with some modifications introduced by the author. The chemical-biological unit of the model includes a description of the dynamics of the following hydroecological variables at a local point of space: biomass of phytoplankton, mineralization-resistant organic phosphorus in suspended (detrital) and dissolved fractions, labile organic phosphorus in suspended and dissolved fractions, dissolved mineral phosphorus, stable organic nitrogen in suspended and dissolved fractions, labile organic nitrogen in suspended and dissolved fractions, ammonium and nitrate nitrogen, suspended and dissolved fractions of organic carbon resistant to biochemical oxidation, suspended and dissolved fractions of labile organic carbon and water-dissolved oxygen. The paper presents results of calibration and verification of 1D version of the model for the case of the Tyligulskiy Liman (Estuary) in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. A conclusion is drawn that the model makes it possible to display the main features of the annual dynamics of hydroecological characteristics of the liman during phytoplankton vegetation season, in particular, the conditions determining the processes of primary production and biochemical oxidation of organic substance, regeneration of mineral forms of biogenic elements. Application of the model in order to assess the impact of deepening the ‘liman-sea’ connecting canal on the hydroecological characteristics of the Tyligulskiy Liman proved that intensification of water exchange with the sea through the canal will help to reduce phytoplankton production, concentration of organic substance in the water of the liman and, ultimately, will lead to improvement of its trophic status.
The model is expected to be further used to assess the effectiveness of various scenarios of managing the hydroecological regime of the limans of the north-western Black Sea region considering the changes of climatic conditions.
Introduction. The regularities of the formation and dynamics of the oxygen regime in inland seas – the Black Sea and Caspian, under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors are estimated.
Purpose. One of the features of the Black Sea is the absence of dissolved oxygen in the water below 200 meters depth. A comparison is made between the hydrological conditions of the Black Sea and the Caspian, where the depths are also quite large, but the intensity of vertical exchange is different. In addition, it is necessary to distinguish the reasons for the formation of oxygen deficient in the seas. They can be natural and human-made origin as well. The paper presents an analysis of the cause-and-effect patterns of the development of pelagial hypoxia as the examples of the Caspian and the Black Sea.
Methods. The work is the review of the problem literature that allows an assessment of the current state of gas exchange of pelagic and abyssal marine basins.
Results. Three main formation factors of the features of the hydrological structure and processes responsible for the intensity of gas exchange in the pelagic zone are identified. So, in the Black Sea, saline waters come with the Lower Bosporus Current and flow down the slope, filling the deep layers of the Black Sea basin, forming a stable vertical stratification density, that limiting vertical gas exchange. The second factor is contributing to oxygen saturation of the lower layers during the process of winter vertical circulation that is mainly expressed in the northwestern part.
The third factor is the regime shift of 1976-1978 in the Black Sea as a decrease of the winter temperature and salinity in the surface layer that led to increasing of static stability. According to actively developed convection processes, covering the entire body of the Caspian Sea, in contrast to the Black Sea, there is an intensive exchange between the upper and the deep layers and the intensity of convection depends on the temperature regime of the year. In the Caspian Sea, the regime shift of 1976-1978 led to a twofold increase in the static stability of water below 100 m, the almost complete cessation of the ventilation of the deep waters of the (the process the slope cascading) and the extreme decrease in the concentrations of dissolved oxygen.
Conclusion. In the Black Sea, the formation of a stable of the density vertical stratification is due to the intrusion of saline dense waters of the Lower Bosporus Current, and the winter vertical circulation is expressed only in the northwestern part of the sea, which generally limits vertical gas exchange with the deep water. In the Caspian Sea, convective mixing plays a main role in the formation of the hydrological structure of water and the ventilation of the bottom layers. In cold winters in the northern Caspian, strong cooling, as well as salinity during ice formation, creates the conditions for the formation of waters with a density that allows them to flow down the slopes of the bottom along isopycnic surfaces and aerating the deep layers of the sea.
The substantiation of selection of places for possible placement of modern interdistrict landfills of solid household waste (SHW) in the territory of the Odessa Region is an urgent task of ensuring ecological safety and sustainable development of the region. The purpose of the work is to assess natural and socio-economic conditions across the administrative districts of the Odessa Region in connection with substantiation of selection of places for possible placement of modern SHW landfills. The scope of the study includes solid waste landfills. Subject of the study covers substantiation of selection of places for possible placement of SHW landfills in Odesa Region. A critical analysis of the regulations containing the requirements to modern SHW landfills and their locations formed the methodological basis of the work. When carrying out the study published data and materials of own research were used. Schematic maps were built using one of the tools of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) – the Quantum GIS package. To estimate the degree of favourableness of the territory of the Odesa Region for placement of SHW landfills the following indicators were used: estimated volumes of SHW formation , thousand tons per year; relative area of dumps and landfills (%); module of total technogenic load; relative area of land damaged by erosion processes (%); relative area of impounded and potentially impounded lands (%); relative area of development of karst occurrence (%); number of landslides within the area; relative area of development of technogenic exogenous geological processes (%). The above indicators are expressed in points: 3 points – favorable conditions; 2 points – relatively favorable conditions; 1 point – unfavorable conditions. At this stage of research it is impossible to establish which of these indicators is a priority. According to the analyzed physical and geographical, engineering and geological, hydrogeological, technogenic and socio-economic indicators the possibilities of placement of modern interdistrict SHW landfills within the territory of the districts of the Odesa Region are nonequivalent. Theoretical and practical importance: an effective system of greening recreational and tourism activities will help to improve the environment within the territory of the National Nature Park in the Lower Dniester Basin.
Persistent organic pollutants represent a serious global threat to human health and the environment. They have certain properties: resistance to decomposition, bioaccumulation, extreme toxicity, even at ultra-low concentrations, ability to transboundary transfer and deposition. Unfortunately, there is no separate normative and legislative base regulating production of persistent organic pollutants in Ukraine. All norms and rules regulating such pollutants formation are included in a large number of various legislative acts and this does not allow systematization and specification of the actions associated with treatment of POPs. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the main sources of unintentional formation of persistent organic pollutants (using Odessa as an example). As part of the study it was established that the main sources of unintentional formation of POPs in Odessa are: combustion of organic fuels by stationary and mobile sources; production of building materials; open landfills of solid household waste; smoking of meat and fish products; functioning of crematoria; tobacco smoking; functioning of the city sewage system. The analysis of the legislative base of Ukraine is carried out which resulted in making a conclusion that there is no separate normative and legislative base regulating production of persistent organic pollutants in Ukraine. For the first time the list of the main sources of unintentional formation of these pollutants was established for Odesa with estimation, using the most advanced European methods, of the mass of persistent organic pollutants formed from each type of above-stated production facilities, and estimation of the total mass of their generation over the territory of Odessa. Since different techniques give results in different units of measurement, a transition to one unit of measurement was performed. Based on the concept of maximum permissible concentration (MPC), the permissible number of molecules of POPs equivalent to 2,3,7,8- tetrachlorodibenzodioxin (TCDD) which can enter the body of one person through respiratory organs was caclculated. A comparison with the number of molecules of 2,3,7,8-TCDD entering the atmosphere in a permissible quantity per 1 citizen of was carried out and corresponding conclusions based on calculations of unintentional formation of POPs in Odessa during one year were made. Also, based on the obtained results, priority sources of unintentional production of persistent organic pollutants were established which allows correct and timely implementation of appropriate measures to reduce formation of these polluting substances.
It is impossible to organize wind energy systems without studying of wind speed regime at the surface layer of the atmosphere within a specific area and at climatic scales. Such studies are often accompanied by approximations of probabilities of wind speed performed in the form of normal law of a system of random values presented by a zonal u and a meridional which are components of a wind speed vector. It is suggested that, for the purposes of wind energy, display of a wind speed vector in polar coordinates (r,a) r – where is a module of wind speed and a – is a polar angle appears to be more preferable. The article shows a transform from a normal law of distribution of probabilities with density ф(u,v) to a normal law distribution with density ф(r,a) completed by means of functional transformation with elliptic dispersion in place. Based on a normal law of distribution ф(r,a) and through integration with respect to corresponding variables (r,a) individual distributions of probabilities ф(r) and ф(a) as well as conditional distributions of probabilities ф(r/a)and ф(a/r)were obtained in the areas of their existence. The article shows individual distributions in case of circular and elliptic dispersion of a wind speed vector. It shows that an individual distribution of a wind speed probability in case of circular
dispersion and in the absence of correlated dependence turns into the Rayleigh’s distribution and a conditional distribution of a polar angle degenerates in an even distribution. The cases of distributions with dispersions of a wind speed module having elliptic properties subject to availability of correlated connection between wind speed components were also studied. Calculation of probabilities of a polar angle being within different sections of the area 0≤α≤2π with set values of a wind speed module also took place. Numerical experiments proved the advantage of such modeling of distributions of wind speed vector.
Cold-core lows are poorly understood cyclones, but they significantly impact on the formation of weather conditions in Ukraine, especially in its central and western regions.
In the paper, the evolution of a cold-core low, which is associated with the enlargement of rain-fall areas with thunderstorms over the Western Europe and Ukraine. The low formed on July 21tst, 2014, in a deep cold trough of a Rossby wave over Atlantic Europe. During period 21-24 July the low was moving to the East and there were precipitation zones under its eastern part. Therefore, sizes of precipitation zones cannot always be explained by impact of front and thermic instability, in this paper it is tried to assess hydrodynamic instability in forming of precipitation in a cold-core low. The research method is based on the use of the linear theory of the hydrodynamic instability of the zonal flow with Rossby waves.
To investigate barotropic instability fields of meridional profiles of absolute vorticity. It is shown that flow in which the low moved was barotropic unstable. Using baroclinic instability characteristics (Phillips’s criterion) Baroclinic zones were revealed in atmospheric fronts and in northern part of area in question.
It has been shown that hydrodynamic instability, both barotropic and baroclinic, in the eastern part of the cold-core low leads to intensification of atmospheric processes on the fronts, which was revealed to strengthening of precipitation and in the enlargement of zones of their formation.
At the end of the XX century and at the beginning of the XXI century climate change was one of the major problems of international community. Today the problem is still relevant. This is dueto a significant change of living conditions of population, especially due to thermal regime change which serves as the main factor directly determining comfort of weather and heat balance of a human body.
In winter period weather comfort depends on the combination of low temperature and high wind speed. It enhances a negative impact on human beings and indicates winter severity in general. This article describes discomfort of weather conditions during winter season in Ukraine. Basic characteristics of thermal regime and wind regime reflecting general features of discomfort during this season are discussed. Estimate of discomfort also includes calculation of comfort indexes – special mathematical formulas that formalize the influence of main meteorological parameters on a human body.
Since the beginning of the XXI century there is a tendency to reduction of cold discomfort in Ukraine. Such reduction is associated with reduction of the Bodman index values. The Siple and Passel index (atmosphere cooling capacity) has the same tendency. In most regions of Ukraine the reality of such changes for both indexes constitutes 90–99 %.
The purpose of this work consists in identifying the main trends of present-day formation and distribution of ground frosts throughout Ukraine. For this purpose the analysis of a minimum air temperature field has been conducted based on observation data at 186 stations of Ukraine for the period from 1991 to 2014. It is known that extreme values of air temperature are much more informative than its average values. Therefore analyses of meteorological extreme values usually lead to more substantial and qualitative results.
In the course of the work, occurrences of frost in April, May and September have been studied separately from each other while these three months are deemed to be the most dangerous in terms of frosts’ frequency and negative impact. In order to identify trends to occurrence of this dangerous weather phenomenon a comparison of two decades of 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 has been made.
In addition, the latest observation period of 2011-2014 has been considered separately taking into account the results of comparative analysis of two preceding decades.
The results of the work indicate a decrease of number of September days having this dangerous weather phenomenon during the last few years. However, recurrence of frosts remains stably high in April while in May it appears to be high only in certain years. The obtained results also indicate the fact that the northern and northeastern territories of Ukraine appear to be the most vulnerable to frosts.
Thus it should be noted that a threat of adverse consequences caused by ground frosts is still there and remains to be quite high, especially for agriculture.
The decision about writing this article was made after familiarization with the “Brief Climatic Essay of Dnepropetrovsk City (prepared based on observations of 1886 – 1937)” written by the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Weather Department of the Hydrometeorological Service A. N. Mikhailov.
The guide has a very interesting fate: in 1943 it was taken by the Nazis from Dnipropetrovsk and in 1948 it returned from Berlin back to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological and Environmental Directorate of the USSR, as evidenced by a respective entry on the Essay’s second page.
Having these invaluable materials and data of long-term weather observations in Dnipro city we decided to analyze climate changes in Dnipropetrovsk region.
The article presents two 50-year periods, 1886-1937 and 1961-2015, as examples. Series of observations have a uniform and representative character because they were conducted using the same methodology and results processing.
We compared two main characteristics of climate: air temperature and precipitation.
The article describes changes of average annual temperature values and absolute temperature values. It specifies the shift of seasons’ dates and change of seasons’ duration.
We studied the changes of annual precipitation and peculiarities of their seasonable distribution. Apart from that peculiarities of monthly rainfall fluctuations and their heterogeneity were specified.
Since Dnipro city is located in the center of the region the identified tendencies mainly reflect changes of climatic conditions within the entire Dnipropetrovsk region.
In the paper it is outlined the main methodological positions and the results of the approbation of new approaches to the integrated assessment of the potential of crop yields.
There are considered the theoretical foundations of a joint assessment of the biological, ecological and anthropogenic components of the yield potential of agricultural crops which are based on the ecosystem concept and the mathematical model “Weather-Crop Yield” developed by V. P. Dmytrenko. In the considered approaches the peculiarities of the influence of various environmental factors on the formation of crop yields are determined by indicators of various potential yields – general, climatic and trend (agrotechnological). Each type of yield potential can be used for evaluation of the effectiveness of the conditions of field crop growing for each factor taken into account, as well as the optimality criterion in the agrometeorological adaptation strategies and also as a criterion for the degree of sensitivity of the yield level to the conditions of crops cultivating.
The developed approaches are tested on the example of estimation of long-term dynamics of winter wheat yield potential in Ukraine. According to the results of the evaluation of different factors of the potential of the productivity of winter wheat for the periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2010 the dominant importance of organizational and technological processes in comparison with the contribution of changes of agroclimatic conditions has been determined in both periods.
Article in question investigates indicators of the moisture-temperature regime for the period of 1986 – 2005 (base period) and compares them to their expected changes calculated for different scenarios of climate change GFDL-30 %, A1B, A2, RCP4,5 and RCP8,5 for the period of 2021 – 2050 on the territory of Ukraine. Calculations reviled that most abrupt changes in moisturetemperature indicators in different soil-climatic zones of Ukraine can be expected in case of scenarios GFDL-30 %, А1В and А2. In case of scenarios of climate change RСР4,5, RСР8,5 thermal indicators are expected to be at the level of multilevel averages in all natural and climatic zones of Ukraine, except for Southern Steppe, where they are expected to grow. The greatest changes in all areas are expected under scenario GFDL-30 %, and they will increase from north to south. Under scenario А1В the greatest difference between calculated values and average multi-year values will be observed in the Forest-Steppe zone and in the Southern Steppe. Under scenarios RCP4,5 и RCP8,5 significant changes in the temperature regime are predicted only for the south and east of Ukraine. At the same time, according to the scenario of RCP4.5, a significant increase in seasonal winter air temperatures is forecasted.
Analysis of the results of calculations for different climatic scenarios of water availability indicators for different natural and climatic zones of Ukraine for the period from 2021 to 2050 reviled that the most drastic changes in the climatic parameters of humidification are expected in the case of the scenarios GFDL-30 %, A1B and A2. In case of climate change scenarios RCP4.5, RCP8.5, no quick changes in the distribution of precipitation over the territory of Ukraine should be expected. The greatest amount of precipitation for the year and in average for the seasons of the year is projected for the western regions of the country, the least one – for the southern regions. At the same time, for most regions the trend to increase the amount of precipitation is most likely in the case of the development of the GFDL-30 %, A1B and A2 scenarios. However, according to the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, rainfall is expected to decline for the year as a whole and especially in the summer season in comparison with the actual for 1986 – 2005.
Climate change is one of the major global issues. Climate is one of the most significant factors
determining the level of crop yields, including sunflower crops. Currently the sunflower planting
acreage in Ukraine has already reached its maximum value. Therefore the potential for increasing sunflower production should be aimed at increasing its yield.
To assess the impact of climate change on sunflower productivity the article considers modern scenarios of RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) such as RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. They belong to the scenarios of medium and high levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios cover the climatic period from 2021 to 2050. In order to conduct a comparative analysis of scenario meteorological values with previous data from the Agroclimatic Reference Book of Ukraine, the period from 1986 to 2005 was taken. It serves as a basic period for calculations.
Calculations were made for the following natural and climatic zones of Ukraine: East Forest-Steppe, Northern and Southern Steppe.
The article studies the influence of agroclimatic conditions on sunflower cultivation as per two interphase periods: shoots – blooming and blooming – picking maturity.
Study of sunflower productivity formation was carried out using a mathematical model of the water-heat regime and sunflower productivity. The model is based on the system of equations of radiation, heat and water balances and biomass balance in vegetation cover.
According to calculations a lowered temperature regime and sufficient moisture in the first half of sunflower vegetation season will favor the formation of leaves way more than during the basic period within the entire area under study. However, expected arid conditions in the second half of vegetation period will cause a very low sunflower moisture availability during this period which would lead to reduction of sunflower seeds’ crop-producing power. Analysis of agroclimatic conditions during vegetation season from sunflower shoots to its picking maturity showed that implementation of both scenarios would ensure expected weather conditions to be more favorable for sunflower growing in the eastern forest-steppe zone of Ukraine. The greatest risk of sunflower crops shortfall in certain years is expected in the southern steppe zone of Ukraine and significant losses should be expected in case of scenario RCP4.5 implementation.
The article includes the data of long-term monitoring observations taken from 60 meteorological stations located at 450-3200 m above the sea level. It presents the results of study of time of occurrence, duration and spatial variability of bioclimatic rhythms of main ecotypes of agricultural crops under the conditions of high altitudes of the Republic of Armenia. It was found out that vertical gradients of the average periods of main phases of grow of winter wheat, potatoes, grapes and livestock pasturage within highland pastures fluctuate within 3-5 days / 100 m. Agro-ecological conditions for bioclimatic rhythms along high-altitude zones are estimated. The high-altitude regularities are determined and correlation dependence curves of time of occurrence of bioclimatic rhythms from absolute altitude are identified with specification of ways for optimizing heat and moisture availability and productivity of these crops. The probability of crop damage from drought, frosts in different periods of vegetation is calculated. Agro-climatic parameters of critical periods of growth and development of crops under study within high-altitude zones are determined which makes it possible to ensure production of stable and high yields. It became clear that the highest altitude for obtaining two crops a year after harvesting early spring grains, vegetables, potatoes is 1400 m above the sea level – in arid regions and 1200 m – in wet regions. It is proposed to develop a natural conveyor for fresh vegetables, potatoes, maize, fruit, dairy and other products using the vertical zonality of crops ripening and livestock pasturage within the summer pasture zone.
For more than 40 years estimated characteristics of rivers’ maximum runoff for rain and spring floods in Ukraine have been determined using the regulatory document SNiP 2.01.14-83. This regulatory document is based on use of reduction formulas and maximum intensity formulas .
Use of reduction structure for rain and spring floods of different reduction have no relevant grounds since in both cases we deal with calculation of maximum water discharge forming the part of unimodular hydrographs. In addition, a calculated parameter of “friendliness” is determined for spring floods by use of hydrological analogues, which, by the way, are assigned rather provi-sionally. Regarding rain floods the impact in the form of coefficients of analogy is replaced by the runoff module taken for a provisional catchment area. In methodological terms, in contrast to the “friendliness” coefficient of the spring flood determined by the method of hydrological analogy, module (for rain floods) is represented by a map of isolines. More remarks can be voiced with regard to the methodological base of determination of maximum mod-ules of rain floods runoff within small catchment areas. The main drawback relating to the use of maximum intensity formula consists in the fact that natural process of transformation of rain floods “precipitation – slope inflow – river channel runoff” is replaced by the operator of “precipitation – river channel runoff”.
The authors of this article offer a universal approach to substantiation of the structure of the formula to determine the characteristics of maximum runoff of rain and spring floods.
The original theoretical model for hydrographs of rain and spring floods is accepted as unimodular non-linear triangles.
For the first time all the components of calculation equations of modules of maximum runoff of rain and spring floods are described by the same equations and differ only in numerical values of the parameters. The proposed scientific and methodological base for determination of modules of maximum runoff of rain and spring floods underwent practical test and is recommended for use when preparing a new Ukrainian regulatory document replacing SNiP 2.01.14-83.
Introduction. Climate changes occurring in recent decades determine the relevance of the problem of forecasting such changes in future both globally and regionally. After all, knowledge of climate’s behavior in future is very important when carrying out an analysis of trends of hydrological characteristics change. Significant increase of the global surface air temperature observed since the end of the 20th century is mainly caused by increase of concentration of greenhouse gases generated as a result of industrial activity. Thus, climate changes could not but affect the continental water resources and in particular the processes taking place in rivers.
Purpose. Assessment of change of surface air layer during the winter period within the Southern Buh Basin and assessment of change of the hydrological regime of the basin’s rivers following the changes of air temperature.
Methods of research. This study is based on the data for the winter period obtained from 24 hydrological station and 15 meteorological stations within the Southern Buh River Basin. With as-sistance of scientists of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute and using the regional climate model REMO for A1B scenario forecast values of air temperature were calculated.
Results of research. The main regularities of studied characteristics change for the period of 2031-2050 were determined on the basis of prepared calculation dependences of the characteristics of ice and thermal regimes of the studied basin’s rivers and obtained forecast values of air temperature. According to the climatologists’ calculations there is a tendency of air temperature increase during the forecast period, and, respectively, increase of water temperature and decrease of ice period duration of the rivers within the Southern Buh Basin.
Summary (conclusions and author’s recommendations). The results of the carried out research indicate the fact that the trend of increase of surface air layer temperature and change of main characteristics of ice and thermal regimes of the basin’s rivers formed at the end of 20th – the beginning of the 21th century will develop in future.
Underwater bucket channels connecting the Danube with sluices were built perpendicular to river’s main stream. Water supply tract consists of an supply bucket channel, connecting the Danube with a sluice facility, a transporting channel – from a sluice to the mouth, i.e. to an output of a channel into a lake, and a mouth section of a channel. Throughout the whole period of operation of these facilities silt accumulation has been observed within supply bucket channels, in a lesser degree – within transport channels, and emergence in a mouth section of transport channels of sandbars having considerable dimensions. Throughout the whole period of operation of facilities and channels plenty of money has been spent for cleaning facilities and channels off sediments, so there is a need for deeper examination of the nature of silting phenomenon and minimization of water supply tract siltation through its simple reconstruction.
The aim of this research consists in substantiation of proposals to eliminate or to reduce effects of silting of supply and transport channels under existing conditions and substantiation of proposed necessary structural measures on the basis of proposed mathematical modelling and methods of analytical studies. Therefore methods of analytical studies including probable and statistical approaches used when analyzing processes with constant change of environment were proposed. These studies found that boundaries of supply of inlet channels in an open river’s channel depend on distribution of flow velocities throughout a river’s stream and conditions of stream distribution and flow pattern in the middle of the supply channel depends on shape of an inlet, particularly on shape of its lower side.
These suggestions and studies give us an opportunity to recommend means of controlling a hydraulic regime in the middle of a supply channel. Fighting against deposition of bottom sediments at supply channels may be won after choosing a place for water intake and a type of bucket, as well as after specification of appropriate structural forms and sizes of their inlet components. Therefore the article provides suggestions on research of regime of interaction between the river and a supply channel, dynamics of water exchange in supply channels, forces of
stream masses developing during mixing, hydraulic regime and regime of deposition of supply and transport channels in order to determine the major requirements regarding size of water area of a supply channel.
Assessments of changes in the intra-annual spatio-temporal variability of the hydrological characteristics of the Kuialnytskyi Lyman lagoon under various runoff volumes of the Velykyi Kuialnyk River were obtained from the results of calculations, using the predictive three dimensional hydrothermodynamic model Delft3D-FLOW.
Scenarios of increasing the river runoff inflow up to 25% and 75% of the monthly natural river runoff under conditions of 2015 were modelled, as well as under different by hydraulicity typical years of the modern climatic period of the 21st century (1990-2030), determined according to the most appropriate for the Kuialnytskyi Lyman lagoon region climatic scenario from the ENSEMBLES database, which corresponds to the global A1B scenario, calculated by the MPI-REMO model. Monthly values of the natural runoff of the Velykyi Kuialnyk River, calculated with the use of “climate-runoff” model, were used during the simulation.
Implementation of water management within the catchment area of the Velykyi Kuialnyk River and realization of various engineering and technical measures aimed at the increase of river inflow to the Kuialnytskyi Lyman lagoon, are identified to significantly affect the hydroecological regime of the lagoon only in case of supplying at least 75% of the natural river runoff volume into the lagoon.
The increase of the natural runoff of the Velykyi Kuialnyk River is incapable to provide the stabilization of the hydroecological regime of the Kuialnytskyi Lyman lagoon independently, without periodical replenishment of the lagoon with seawater from the Odessa Gulf.
Under the absence of replenishment of the lagoon with sea water and deficiency in the runoff of other small water streams flowing into the lagoon, the increase of the runoff of the Velykyi Kuialnyk River even up to 75% of the volume of its natural runoff could provide the stabilization of the annual cycle of water level and salinity variability in the lagoon only during the high-water years.
Development of the Hydrology in universities of Ukraine is the formation and development of scientific schools, which promote of the better training of professionals.
Purpose of the article – to show the history of hydrological science in higher educational institutions of Ukraine, the formation of scientific schools, their achievements and problems, outline prospects for the development of Hydrology in universities .
The article presents the history of hydrological science in higher educational institutions of Ukraine since 1922, when E. Oppokov first time in Ukraine established the Department of Hydrology at the Kiev Polytechnic Institute, that passed difficult path of transformation and now is presented at the National University of Water Management and Nature (Rivne). It was described the development of hydrology at the Odessa State Environmental University (since 1932), Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University (since 1946), Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv (since 1949), Oles Gonchar Dnipro National University (since 2008). The results of the work of scientists hydrologists at these universities, especially Odessa scientific school of theoretical and applied hydrology and Kiev University scientific school of hydrochemistry and hydroecology was considered.
Hydrological Sciences at the Universities of Ukraine have a long tradition that has formed dur-ing last century. In general, it is today developing in the mainstream global hydrology. Prospects of Hydrological Sciences is closely linked to prospects of the national economy. Ukrainian hydrologists must work more closely with international institutions on joint research projects. The task of universities is not only intensify research, but also in improving the training of specialists hydrologists from the time when hydrology was included in “Earth Sciences”.
Under consider of the wave radiation stresses the complex modeling of the waves and wind-wave currents was released for the Kerch bay under the southern wind direction.
Дана территориально дифференцированная геоэкологическая оценка комфортности климата городов Беларуси и предложен прогнозный сценарий ее изменения в 2020 году. Полученные результаты могут быть использованы в практике рационального природопользования Беларуси для принятия грамотных управленческих решений по оптимизации функционирования и развития урбанизированных территорий страны.
Определены индексы засух (нормированный индекс осадков) для территории Украины в 1950-2009 годы. Показано, что в отдельных областях юга и центра Украины произошло резкое увеличение количества месяцев с засухами. При помощи анализа разладки выявлено, что в 1960-80 и 1990-2000 годах произошли резкие изменения средней величины, причем над югом Украины со второй половины 1990-х годов имеет место тренд к увеличению количества и интенсивности засух.
В статье показана возможность распознавания градовых и ливневых облаков по поляризационным параметрам эхо-сигналов.
The articles devoted to the main methodology problems, which can appear during researching of temperature anomalies in the big city, it uses analyzed the basic factors influencing on forming of urban heat island and determining its intensity, positive and negative consequences of urban heat island influence are characterized.
The analysis of time series variability in crop yields of winter wheat in Ukraine. Were calculated trend lines yield method of harmonic balance, yield deviations from the trend line, the dynamics of trends in crop yields, and the evaluation of climate variability sredneoblastnyh crop yields.
Дается обоснование показателей для комплексной оценки и разномасштабного районирования ресурсов влаги в Украине. Приводятся алгоритм расчетов показателей условий увлажнения с учетом мезо- и микроклимата. Представлена оценка ресурсов влаги по относительному показателю увлажнения, который характеризует отношение запасов продуктивной влаги в метровом слое почвы к запасам влаги наименьшей влагоемкости (W̅/Wнв) в Украине в разрезе зон увлажнения в зависимости от макрорайона, подрайона, экспозиции склона и местоположение на склоне.
Представлены результаты численных экспериментов по оценке влияния засушливых, влажных и среднемноголетних условий на развитие популяции колорадского жука и формирование урожайности картофеля применительно к условиям Ровенской области. В основу численных экспериментов положена модель формирования урожайности картофеля и развития популяции колорадского жука при различных агрометеорологических условиях.
На основе теории колебаний предложена единая динамическая модель роста общей сухой биомассы, процессов фотосинтеза и дыхания растений для озимых и яровых форм. Учитываются критические температуры вымерзания озимых, минимальные, оптимальные и максимальные значения факторов внешней среды: прихода ФАР, температуры воздуха, влажности почвы. Основное различие яровых и озимых форм растений обеспечивается начальной фазой колебаний устойчивой составляющей логистической кривой роста общей сухой биомассы растений в онтогенезе.
Представлены результаты агроклиматического районирования пастбищных земель в пустынной зоне Казахстана для целей фитомелиорации, как составляющей современной системы кормопроизводства и управления пастбищами.
Regional assessment of bioclimatic forest-steppe regions potential in Ukraine has been made, also have comparative evaluation of using bioclimatic region potential efficiency related to maize cultivation has been made.