In the paper it is outlined the main methodological positions and the results of the approbation of new approaches to the integrated assessment of the potential of crop yields.
There are considered the theoretical foundations of a joint assessment of the biological, ecological and anthropogenic components of the yield potential of agricultural crops which are based on the ecosystem concept and the mathematical model “Weather-Crop Yield” developed by V. P. Dmytrenko. In the considered approaches the peculiarities of the influence of various environmental factors on the formation of crop yields are determined by indicators of various potential yields – general, climatic and trend (agrotechnological). Each type of yield potential can be used for evaluation of the effectiveness of the conditions of field crop growing for each factor taken into account, as well as the optimality criterion in the agrometeorological adaptation strategies and also as a criterion for the degree of sensitivity of the yield level to the conditions of crops cultivating.
The developed approaches are tested on the example of estimation of long-term dynamics of winter wheat yield potential in Ukraine. According to the results of the evaluation of different factors of the potential of the productivity of winter wheat for the periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2010 the dominant importance of organizational and technological processes in comparison with the contribution of changes of agroclimatic conditions has been determined in both periods.
The article includes the data of long-term monitoring observations taken from 60 meteorological stations located at 450-3200 m above the sea level. It presents the results of study of time of occurrence, duration and spatial variability of bioclimatic rhythms of main ecotypes of agricultural crops under the conditions of high altitudes of the Republic of Armenia. It was found out that vertical gradients of the average periods of main phases of grow of winter wheat, potatoes, grapes and livestock pasturage within highland pastures fluctuate within 3-5 days / 100 m. Agro-ecological conditions for bioclimatic rhythms along high-altitude zones are estimated. The high-altitude regularities are determined and correlation dependence curves of time of occurrence of bioclimatic rhythms from absolute altitude are identified with specification of ways for optimizing heat and moisture availability and productivity of these crops. The probability of crop damage from drought, frosts in different periods of vegetation is calculated. Agro-climatic parameters of critical periods of growth and development of crops under study within high-altitude zones are determined which makes it possible to ensure production of stable and high yields. It became clear that the highest altitude for obtaining two crops a year after harvesting early spring grains, vegetables, potatoes is 1400 m above the sea level – in arid regions and 1200 m – in wet regions. It is proposed to develop a natural conveyor for fresh vegetables, potatoes, maize, fruit, dairy and other products using the vertical zonality of crops ripening and livestock pasturage within the summer pasture zone.
They are estimated the change of agro climatic resources in the Ukrainian part of the Danube Delta sub-basin in 2011-2030 years and 2030 – 2050 years due to climate change, in a compared with the base period 1986 – 2005 years. For the assessment of climate change in Ukraine A1B scenario, the regional climate model MPI-M-REMO, a global model – CHAM5-r3 have been used. The evaluation of the heat and humidity of the growing season, and evaluation of the changes of agro-climatic conditions of winter wheat in relation to climate change has been done.
The estimation of change climatic recourse of the Lugansk region was examined in 2011-2030 and 2031-2050 years in connection with the changes of climate in compression by base period 1970-2010 years. Using models was assessed photosynthesis production and vibrations of the productivity of winter wheat in the conditions of change of climate.
An analysis of calculating the potential yield of winter wheat in the south of Ukraine in terms of mean growing season based on agrochemical characteristics of the main types of soil zone is given. According to our calculations, the potential yield of winter wheat on soils of the south of Ukraine may take up to 48 kg/ha.
The general evaluation of agroclimatic resources in Kherson region as to cultivation of winter wheat was made on the base of agro-ecological categories of productivity and quantitative evaluation of agroclimatic resources.
The analysis of time series variability in crop yields of winter wheat in Ukraine. Were calculated trend lines yield method of harmonic balance, yield deviations from the trend line, the dynamics of trends in crop yields, and the evaluation of climate variability sredneoblastnyh crop yields.
It is shown the results of studies of the influence of weather conditions on Pelisse protein content in grain of winter wheat. It is got the statistical dependence of protein content with the basic agrometeorological factors.
The submodel of process of frost resistance and wintering of the winter wheat as a component of complex dynamic model of growth, development and formation of the crop production.