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References
- N.V. Danilova Evaluation of the influence of climate change on the productivity of millet in the central part of Ukraine
- Polevoy A. N., Bozhko L. E., Barsukova E. A. Impact of climat changes on agro-climatic indices of the vegetative period of main agricultural crops
- Palamarchuk Yu.O., Ivanov S.V., Ruban I.G. The digitizing algorithm for precipitation in the atmosphere on the base of radar measurements
- Khokhlov V.N. Quantitative description of European climate change during second half of XX century.
- Sviderskaya S.M. Influence of agrometeorological terms on development of fitoftora and its damaging influence on productivity of potato.
- Goncharova L. Features of change of the monthly sums of an atmospheric precipitation in territory of the Odessa area during the XX-th century
- Khokhlov, V.M., H.O. Borovska, O.V. Umanska and M.S. Tenetko Changes of weather conditions in Ukraine under climate changes
- Zhygailo, О.L. and T.S. Zhygailo Evaluation of climate change influence on agroclimatic conditions of sunflower growing in Ukraine
- Danilova, N.V. Assessment of changes of agro-climatic conditions for cultivation of millet in the southern regions of Ukraine resulted from climate change
- O.I. Udovenko, I.V. Kovalets Calculation of precipitation during period of catastrophic flood 21-27 july 2008 in Ukrainian Carpathians
- V. Khokhlov, N. Yermolenko Future climate change and it’s impact on precipitation and temperature in Ukraine
- A.M. Pol'ovyj, E.A. Barsukova Modified climate influence on rates development of spring barley in Ukraine
Papers
Climate change is a change of climatic conditions in the global atmosphere and on the Earth in general (or within its individual zones or territories) caused directly or indirectly due by the human activity on the planet, which are overlaid on the natural climatic variations (fluctuations) and observed during comparable periods of time.
Both the climate of Ukraine and the global climate are changing, but warming within our territory progresses even faster than in other regions of the Northern Hemisphere.
Ukraine in general and southern regions in particular are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change – droughts, extremely high temperatures, inefficient precipitation, reduced irrigated area cause of precipitation amount and regime, severer and more long-lasting droughts, reduced water availability.
The majority of arable land in Ukraine are located in zones of unstable and insufficient humidity, it is quite possible that for plant growing, especially for growing winter crops and early spring crops, climate change will rather have a positive effect than negative one.
Among the main types of cereals millet is the most common one. It is valuable for its groats, which is known by its high eating quality.
Millet as a fast-growing crop having a certain agrotechnical importance: it is used as a backup crop for re-sowing dead winter crops and is suitable for stubble and post-harvest sowing, it also can be used as a cover culture for perennial grass.
Millet is one of the most drought-resistant and heat-resistant crops. It is able to withstand heat injuries which is very important in arid areas and during dry years, when other grain crops have reduced yield. Millet suffers less from pests and diseases than other crops.
The task was to evaluate the agro-climatic conditions of millet crops formation in the central part of Ukraine under conditions of climate change. The study of the impact of climate change on the formation of millet productivity for different time intervals was performed by comparing the data of the RCP scenario and the average long-term climatic and agro-climatic parameters. The influence of agroclimatic conditions on the dynamics of increase of agroecological yield of different levels is also assessed.
- Adamenko, T.I., Kulbida, M.I., Prokopenko, A.L. (Eds). (2011). Ahroklimatychnyi dovidnyk po terytorii Ukrainy [Agroclimatic reference book for territories of Ukraine]. Kamianets-Podilsk. (in Ukr.)
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- Ivani Zhuzhanna. (October 2015). Pidvyshchennia stiikosti do zminy klimatu silskohospodarskoho sektoru Pivdnia Ukrainy [Increased resistance to climate change agricultural sector of the South Ukraine]. Sentendre, Hungary. (in Ukr.)
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- Pol’ovyi, A.M. (2012). Otsinka vplyvu zmin klimatu na zminy ahroklimatychnykh resursiv Luhanskoho rehionu, umovy rostu ta produktyvnist silskohospodarskykh kultur i pryrodnoi roslynnosti. Rekomendatsii shchodo adaptatsii do tsykh zmin [Assessing the impact of climate change on changes in agro-climatic resources of Lugansk region, the conditions of growth and productivity of crops and natural vegetation. Recommendation to adapt to these changest]. Odesa. (in Ukr.)
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- Sultan, B., Roudier, P., Quirion, P., Alhassane, A., Muller, B., Dingkuhn, M. et al. (2013). Assessing climate change impacts on sorghum and millet yields in the Sudanian and Sahelian savannas of West Africa. Enviroment Research Leters, 8(1). DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014040
- Uvirkaa Akumaga, Aondover Tarhule, Claudio Piani, Bouba Traore, Ado A. Yusuf. (2018). Utilizing Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Adaptation Options in the Niger River Basin, West Africa. Agronomy, 8(2). DOI:10.3390/agronomy8020011
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Article in question investigates indicators of the moisture-temperature regime for the period of 1986 – 2005 (base period) and compares them to their expected changes calculated for different scenarios of climate change GFDL-30 %, A1B, A2, RCP4,5 and RCP8,5 for the period of 2021 – 2050 on the territory of Ukraine. Calculations reviled that most abrupt changes in moisturetemperature indicators in different soil-climatic zones of Ukraine can be expected in case of scenarios GFDL-30 %, А1В and А2. In case of scenarios of climate change RСР4,5, RСР8,5 thermal indicators are expected to be at the level of multilevel averages in all natural and climatic zones of Ukraine, except for Southern Steppe, where they are expected to grow. The greatest changes in all areas are expected under scenario GFDL-30 %, and they will increase from north to south. Under scenario А1В the greatest difference between calculated values and average multi-year values will be observed in the Forest-Steppe zone and in the Southern Steppe. Under scenarios RCP4,5 и RCP8,5 significant changes in the temperature regime are predicted only for the south and east of Ukraine. At the same time, according to the scenario of RCP4.5, a significant increase in seasonal winter air temperatures is forecasted.
Analysis of the results of calculations for different climatic scenarios of water availability indicators for different natural and climatic zones of Ukraine for the period from 2021 to 2050 reviled that the most drastic changes in the climatic parameters of humidification are expected in the case of the scenarios GFDL-30 %, A1B and A2. In case of climate change scenarios RCP4.5, RCP8.5, no quick changes in the distribution of precipitation over the territory of Ukraine should be expected. The greatest amount of precipitation for the year and in average for the seasons of the year is projected for the western regions of the country, the least one – for the southern regions. At the same time, for most regions the trend to increase the amount of precipitation is most likely in the case of the development of the GFDL-30 %, A1B and A2 scenarios. However, according to the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, rainfall is expected to decline for the year as a whole and especially in the summer season in comparison with the actual for 1986 – 2005.
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There is an increasing demand for automated high-quality very-short-range forecasts and nowcasts of precipitation on small scales and at high update frequencies. Current prediction systems use different methods of determining precipitation such as area tracking, individual cell tracking and numerical models. All approaches are based on radar measurements. World-leading manufactories of meteorological radars and attendant visualization software are introduced in the paper. Advantages of the numerical modelling against inertial schemes designed on statistical characteristics of convective processes are outlined. On this way, radar data assimilation systems as a necessary part of numerical models are intensively developed. In response to it, the use of digital formats for processing of radar measurements in numerical algorithms became important. In the focus of this work is the developing of a unified code for digital processing of radar signals at the preprocessing, filtration, assimilation and numerical integration steps. The proposed code also includes thinning, screening or superobbing radar data before exploring them for the assimilation procedures. The informational model manages radar data flows in the metadata and binary array forms. The model constitutes an official second-generation European standard exchange format for weather radar datasets from different manufactories. Results of radar measurement processing are presented for both, the single radar and radar overlying network.
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Methodology for calculation of aggregate climate change index which taking into account abnormal events in the temperature and precipitation is described. The method is used for Europe. It is shown that greatest climate change during 1978-2006 years occurred in the Central Europe, Western and Central Mediterranean, and Pyrenees.
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The paper analyzes spatiotemporal features the indices of hot, cold and precipitation that are related to weather conditions. The temperature in Ukraine tends to be higher, which is the main regional feature of global climate changes. The North Atlantic Oscillation had an influence on the precipitation in Ukraine – weather is rainier during its negative phases. Also, colder night and hotter days were more frequent during negative phases of the NAO. This fact can be explained by enhancing meridional flows in Ukraine. The wavelet analysis also revealed an impact of the NAO on temperature anomalies – positive phases determined increasing monthly minimum temperatures before the 1980s and decreasing ones after 1980s. Also, the wavelet analysis showed that the North Atlantic Oscillation influenced the precipitation in northern and southern parts of Ukraine in different ways.
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The problem of climate change and global warming both in whole and in particular has become one of the most serious and urgent directions of scientific and technical activity at the present stage. The future food security of Ukraine depends on the effectiveness of adaptation of agriculture to new conditions dictated by the global anthropogenic warming. In order to evaluate possible impact of climate change in Ukraine on agroclimatic indicators the scenario A1B – “moderate” was used providing a balance between all energy sources. Researches of sunflower harvest formation are carried out using a dynamic model of agricultural crops productivity. For a comparative analysis of scenary meteorological variables with previous data the period from 1986 to 2005 is taken from agroclimatic directory of Ukraine. It serves as a base when performing calculations. According to calculations of A1B climate change scenario, periods of sowing and subsequent phases of development will occur earlier than at present, which will lead to reduction of the whole vegetation period at most parts of the area under study. As a result of comparative analysis of temperature and precipitation regime it was found that, subject to implementation of the climate change scenario under study, expected weather conditions will be more favourable for cultivation of sunflower in the Western and Central forest-steppe, as well as at the Right-Bank Ukraine and in the Donetsk sub-zone of Northern steppe of Ukraine.
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The signals of global warming are now being observed throughout the world. Data of hydrometeorological centres show a significant increase of temperature in many regions accompanied by intense frequency of dry periods. Some substantial and direct effects of climate change may be already noticed at present time. Over the next several decades they will be observed in agriculture. Increase of temperature and reduction of precipitation volumes will probably lead to decrease the level of yield. These changes can significantly affect the global food security. Ukraine is known for its fertile soil and agricultural products, so it has a huge agricultural potential, contributing, in fact, to the global food security. However, the observed weather changes, increase of average temperature and uneven distribution of rainfalls can result in sharp transformation of most of agricultural and climatic zones of Ukraine. According to international processes there is an urgent need for improvement of adaptation to climate change of some branches of national economy of Ukraine, including of agriculture.
Expanding the range of types of millet used in agricultural production is an economically feasible process that should be implemented in view of significant climate changes resulting in global warming which is widely discussed in scientific literature. Rapid introduction in crop shifts of the millet that is able to withstand recurring periodic droughts, especially in the southern regions, is one of the ways allowing to overcome the consequences of such extreme conditions.
Conditions of the southern regions are favourable for millet crop. Millet is one of the most drought-resistant and heat-resistant crops that can sustain heat injuries and seizures and this is very important for arid areas during dry years, when other crops significantly reduce the level of yield.
We studied changes of agro-climatic resources and agro-climatic conditions for formation of millet productivity for various periods of time. The analysis of climate change trend was performed through comparing of data as per climatic scenarios A2 and A1B and of average long-term characteristics of climatic and agro-climatic indicators. The comparative description of millet productivity under the conditions of climate change as per average long-term data (1986-2005) and as per scenarios A2 and A1B of climate change (2011-2030 and 2031-2050) was also performed.
- Adamenko T.I., Kul’bida M.I., Prokopenko A.L. (Eds). Ahroklimatychnyy dovidnyk po terytorii’ Ukrai’ny [An agroclimatic reference book for territories of Ukraine]. Kamyanets-Podilsk, 2011. 107 p.
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Intense precipitation event happened in Ukraine on 21-27 July 2008 leading to extreme flash floods in the Ukrainian Carpathians which are characterized by the return period of approximately 50 years. Besides favourable synoptic conditions leading to quasi-stationary low situated over Balkans and South-West part of Ukraine precipitation during this event was intensified by mountains. This lead to formation of the specific precipitation patterns in the Ukrainian Carpathians which was not adequately resolved by the existing measurement network. The purpose of this publication is application of the mesoscale meteorological model WRF with high resolution (1 km) for reconstruction of precipitation during flood in July, 2008 in the Ukrainian Carpathians and evaluation of the simulated results against measurements.
Calculation of precipitation during the period of catastrophic summer flood in 2008 at the territory of Ukrainian Carpathians had been carried out with the use of meteorological model WRF. The precipitation field was well simulated for the period of maximum floods (July, 25-th) as compared to precipitation data measured at meteorological stations. However the second and lower peak of precipitation which happened during July, 27-th was underestimated by WRF. The reason of such underestimation is possibly the influence of boundary conditions on simulated results. The precipitation field formed during July, 25-th is elongated along the main ridge of the Ukrainian Carpathians and precipitation maximums on that date, reaching up to 70 mm/3 hours are situated above foothills of the Carpathians. On July, 27-th the precipitation maximums are shifted south-eastward, close to the boundary of the computational domain. The vertical crossections of the calculated meteorological fields demonstrate characteristic system of gravitational waves occurring in flow above mountains and sequence of convective cells situated mostly above the windward (north-eastern) hills and coinciding with the precipitation maximums. The depth of some of the convective cells reaches 10 km, which is supported by satellite data. The indirect evaluation of the calculated precipitation field is performed using the measured water discharge data at the watersheds of the rivers in Carpathians. For the period of maximum flood the relative precipitation amount at each watershed (over total precipitation amount at all water-sheds) appears to be approximately equal to relative water discharge of the corresponding watershed.
In conclusion we could state that the precipitation field was well simulated by WRF for the period of maximum floods (25 July). High quality of simulated results is supported by comparison of the calculated and measured precipitation as well as with indirect juxtaposition of the calculated integral precipitation at the watersheds of Carpathian rivers and water discharges in the corresponding river outlets. The calculated results demonstratre that existing measurement network is too sparse to capture the details of the orographically enhanced precipitation field. The scarcity of the measurement network makes it difficult to evaluate integral and maximum characteristics of precipitation happening in the Ukrainian Carpathians.
Directions for further research should include usage of the coupled mesoscale meteorological-distributed hydrological model chain for calculation and forecasting of meteorological and hydrological characteristics of floods.
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Global climate change has provoked an active development in modern methods relating to the prediction of spatiotemporal hydrometeorological fields. Numerical modeling of nearest-future climatic changes allows to generate strategies of development for different areas of economic activity. The paper aims to assess the expected air temperature and precipitation features in Ukraine considering different scenarios of climatic change. The modeling future changes of air temperature and precipitation were carried out using the A1B and A2 scenarios of climatic change. The outcomes of regional climate model ECHAM5 from ENSEMBLES Project were used as initial data. It was revealed that the air temperature will gradually increase in most of Ukrainian regions. Moreover highest air temperature will be recorded in South-ern Ukraine during 2031–2050. The analysis of linear trends for 2031–2050 showed that the air temperature for the scenario A1B will exhibit a tendency to the decrease of temperature. However, the annually mean temperature in 2031–2050 for the ‘moderate’ scenario A1B will be higher than for the ‘hard’, in terms of greenhouse gases concentrations, scenario A2. The annual precipitation in Ukraine, both for the A1B and A2 scenario, will slightly increase toward the 2050 with the exception of Southern Ukraine. Also, the highest annual precipitation will be registered in the western part of Ukraine, and lowest – in the southern one. The paper can be expanded to the analysis of future dangerous weather phenomena depending on the changes of air temperature and precipitation.
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