The method of calculation of meteorological potential of pollution of an atmosphere is developed on the basis of theorem Bayes. The estimation of potential can be made or according to standard meteorological supervision, or according to the climatic information. The forecasting model of ecological risk is suitable for practical calculations. The model can be used as formal base for all-round studying and comparative estimations of ecological risks.
Is considered the modeling of the impact of environmental factors on basket willow growth (Salix Viminalis L.) in conditions of radioactive pollution, absorption radionuclides in root system and their accumulation in root system, leaves and wood.
The results of current research advances are used for the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) parameterization in the regional and mesoscale prediction models, where the level of the turbulence closure becomes important and are widely used for the quantitative description of atmospheric lower layer. The improved model reconstruction of 3D thermo-dynamic and turbulence characteristics in terrain-following coordinates for stratified, baroclinic atmospheric boundary layer is presented. The two-equation approach of turbulence closure includes the equations for kinetic energy of the turbulent eddies and dissipation rate. This approach of turbulence closure allows to exclude the empirical formulae of length scale and to take into account physics of the various complex turbulence phenomena The lower boundary condition is modified by including the prediction equations for temperature and moisture instead of given values of temperature and moisture near the surface level. The equations for TKE and dissipation rate are added by the terms of the pressure-correlation which take into account the turbulence-turbulence and mean fields-turbulence interactions. The developed model described the most physical mechanisms of the ABL formation.
Theoretical scheme of mechanism of formation of Rossby’s soliton from the initial stage of development of wave process in the type of Kelvin’s waves, transformation into the progressive Rossby’s wave with the next change in to the stage of stationary Rossby’s wave is given proof. Transformation of the stationary Rossby’s wave into Rossby’s soliton is considered with the help of the analysis of the main physical reasons of the energy change of the wave process which place.
The weak constraint formulation of a digital filter implemented in the initialization step of the mm5 model is considered. This approach allows us to achieve the better dynamic balance between mass and wind fields in the initial conditions of the model. The results of numerical simulations show that the digital filter enables the optimal fitting of the meteorological fields during initialization as well as reduces a growth rate of forecast errors throughout a consequent integration.
The temporal vibrations of ozone content above the Antarctic peninsula on the basis of satellite information and the direct observation of common ozone content data at the Academician Vernadsky station were researched. Maps on the basis of which fields of spatial distribution of stratospheric ozone at the designated test-field were analyzed, were plotted.
Propose a model and algorithm of description calculation of emission of antenna – radar dome system with regular layers of fall-out.
The time-space structure of the hail hazardous cumulonimbus clouds which developing on the sea breeze fronts at the northwestern Black Sea coast for the period 1996-1999 years with the MRL-5 is investigated. The map of the amount days with the radar reflectivity more than 65 dBZ on the sea breeze fronts is presented. The statistic characteristics of the sea breeze fronts are given.
The submodel of process of frost resistance and wintering of the winter wheat as a component of complex dynamic model of growth, development and formation of the crop production.
Complex zoning in average scale indices of plant radiation – thermal resources and plant moisture support on the territory of Ukraine is show. Quantity estimation of different kind and level grapes harvests applying to a number of agroclimatic regions marking on the map on the basis of modeling is given. Variability of potential grapes harvests under the influence of slop microclimate has been defined.
Influence of weather conditions on the rates of development and generation of productivity for egg-plant, paprica, tomatoes and cucumbers in various soil-climatic areas of the Ukraine is examined. Quantitative dependences of interphase period duration upon mean temperature of the air for the period as well as capacity of the crops upon various agroclimatic indices are presented. Provision of heat of vegetable crops in all agroclimatic areas of the Ukraine is estimated.
The problem of description, evaluation and prognostication of duration for sowing-shoots period of agricultural cultures is examined. The solution to the problem is founded on an approach being a problem of biological time of plants. Iterative computation equation for consideration of a complex of agrometeorological factors affecting the duration of sowing-shoots period is derived on the basis of expansion in Taylor’s series. Thus, the basic processes of ontogenesis, photosynthesis and plant respiration, are taken account of.
The method of forecasting of the sugar-beet yield in the districts of Ukraine is presented. This method is based on the crop capacity model of V.P. Dmytrenko (UHMI), which considerations the statistical maximum of the crop yields, the coefficients of productivity by the air temperature and precipitation and other additional parameters. The average justification of this method by the industrial testing is about 82 %.
The results of a numeral experiments with the estimation of late frosts influences, observed during 3 ten-day periods of 11 being under study, on the accumulation of potato plant individual organ biomass and productivity formation as a whole conformably to Kirovograd region conditions are stated.
The paper considers the problem of the detailed mapping of soil water and aeration regime influenced by the topographic redistribution of water. The topographic indices derived from the GIS-analysis of raster DEM can be effectively used for this purpose. The substantial correlation between these indices and tree stand structure on the small study area was found. These relationships were used as a basis of the multiple regression model that can be used to map the distribution of plant ecological characteristics on the basis of topographic indices.
On the base of investigation of statistical structure of suspended sediments fields there was established that the morphometric characteristics of catchments as areas, average elevations, forestness reflect main regularities of spatial distribution of suspended sediments discharges for Desna catchment, where data of observation are absent.
The tendency of advancement of estuarine coast of Kiliya delta for the last 20 years is saved. The processes of accumulation on the Ukrainian area of marine edge prevail above erosion. Middle speed of advancement of marine edge for 1984 – 2005 changes from 0,3 to 37 m per year. The depths of estuarine coast are mainly also displaced in the sea. The reliable correlation dependences between the separate elements of the hydrometeorological regime and descriptions of dynamics of estuarine coast are not found.
Optimal predictors of annual runoff forming were received by regresion analysis of first components (method NOF) and quantitative indexes of flow factors.
The present condition of shallow waters and their role in the Dnieper water storage functioning are under consideration. The calculated sought economical and ecological (according to the area) indices of the Dnieper cascade shallow water – storage and their analysis are presented.
Calculation and estimation of life-conditioned annual runoff statistic parameters are made for Low Pridneproviya. The calculated characteristics under economic activity are generalized.
The review of existent methods of count of flow of the dissolved matters by river waters is done in the article, the ground and clarification of method of cube spline-interpolation of calculation of daily charges of the dissolved matters on the example of the Carpathians rivers having the low informing of the given supervisions on hydrochemical indexes is resulted.
The script of formation of four rivers of Podolsk height Kaljus, Кaraec, Gvan, and Liadova is offered, points of river interceptions are revealed, their quantitative estimation is given and places are installed where the further development of these natural processes is planned.
The results of adaptation three-dimensional numerical time-dependent thermohydrodynamical model MECCA (Model for Estuarine and Coastal Circulation Assessment) to conditions of a northwestern part of Black Sea are presented. The model is used for the description of seasonal variability of thermohaline structure and circulation of waters.
On an actual material processes of a underground feed of World ocean are considered. It is shown, that injections of underground waters are carried out by portions duration from several hours up to 3,5 days. Received results are important as for studying processes of interaction of the lithosphere and hydrosphere, and for studying all system of the lithosphere – hydrosphere – criosphere-atmosphere.
A time variability of ice extent for some seas is investigated using wavelet analysis. A relationship between the low-frequency changes of both the Arctic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation indices and sea ice extents is shown. The teleconnection analogous to the Antarctic Dipole for the ice extent in the Greenland and Bering seas is revealed.
In the article is examined reasons and specification of quantity changeability of level in the Kerch channel. It is shown that sea level during the last 60 years rises at a speed of 0,33 cm/year. It is analysed inwardly day’s denivilations: longitudinal and transversal; large-scale inwardly-day’s denivilations, by the duration 6.5 ± 4,1 hours, and finely scale two sentinels and their influence on communicating depths in the Kerch-Enykalsky channel.
The presence of the second (winter) maximum at an annual distribution (40-60 % of cases) as volumes of the river’s waters (Danube and Dnepr) so the Black sea level at stations of northwest coast is shown. The general tendency of the growth of a sea level on mid-annual and mid-winter data is marked in interannual variability which is not connected with increase the volumes of the river’s waters. The sea level in the Odessa region depends on Danube waters (r=0.8-0.9) but on Dnepr waters (r≅0.5) connection is present with the nearest stations – Ochakov, Odessa and Ilyichevsk. The differences in character of fluctuations of volumes of the Dnepr waters to other considered parameters are observed.