Airborne risk, regional vulnerability and possible accidental consequences from nuclear sites in the European Arctic and Sub-Arctic

Authors: Alexander Baklanov, Alexander Mahura, Jens Havskov Sørensen, Olga Rigina, Ronny Bergman, Vladislav Golikov, Sven Nielsen, Boris Segerståhl, Morten Sickel

Year: 2013

Issue: 12

Pages: 87-94


The paper presents achievements of the previous “Arctic Risk” project: “Atmospheric transport pathways, vulnerability and possible accidental consequences from the nuclear risk sites in the European Arctic (multidisciplinary network studies)” of the Nordic Arctic Research Programme (NARP) and several following research initiatives and projects. The main results include the development and testing of a methodology for complex nuclear risk assessment and vulnerability evaluation.

Tags: atmospheric transport; environmental contamination and risk modelling; multidisciplinary nuclear risk and vulnerability assessments; nuclear risk sites


  1. AMAP (1998) AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, Oslo, Norway, 859 pp.
  2. ANWAP (1997) Radionuclides in the Arctic seas from the former Soviet Union: Potential health and ecological risks. Eds. D. Layton, R. Edson and B. Napier. Arctic Nuclear Waste Assessment Program, Office of Naval Research (ONR), USA.
  3. Baklanov A, J.H. Sørensen, A. Mahura (2007) Methodology for Probabilistic Atmospheric Studies using Long-Term Dispersion Modelling. Environ. Model. Assess., vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 541-552, 2008, DOI 10.1007/s10666-007-9124-4
  4. Baklanov A. (Ed.), A. Mahura, O. Rigina, R. Bergman, V. Golikov, S. Nielsen, B. Segerståhl, M. Sickel, J.H. Sørensen (2003) Evaluation of Doses, Risks, Vulnerabilities and Consequences for Population and Environment in Euro-Arctic region. AR-NARP Project, DMI Scientific Report, 03-17, 65p.
  5. Baklanov, A., A. Mahura (2004) Assessment of possible airborne impact from risk sites: methodology for probabilistic atmospheric studies. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 4, pp 485-495.
  6. Baklanov, A., A. Mahura, J.H. Sørensen, O. Rigina, R. Bergman (2002) Methodology for Risk Analysis based on Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling from Nuclear Risk Sites. Danish Meteorological Institute, DMI Scientific Report, 02-16, ISBN: 87-7478-470-6, 54 p.
  7. Baklanov, A., A. Mahura, L. Nazarenko, N. Tausnev, A Kuchin, O. Rigina (2012): Atmospheric Pollution and Climate Change in Northern Latitudes. Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity, Russia, 106 pp. Book in Russian, УДК 504+551+621.039
  8. Bergman, R. & Baklanov, A. (1998) Radioactive sources in main radiological concern in the Kola-Barents region. FRN-FOA publication, Stockholm, July 1998. 82 p.
  9. Bohmer, N., A. Nikitin, I. kudrik, T. Nilsen, M. McGovern, A. Zolotkov (2001) The Arctic Nuclear Challenges. Bellona Report, Vol. 3.
  10. Chambers, D.B., L.M. Lowe, R.H. Stager (1998) Long term population dose due to radon from uranium mill tailings. The Uranium Institute. Twenty Third Annual International symposium 1998.
  11. Harms, I.H. (1995) Local and regional scale scenarios of Cs-137 released from waste dumped in the Kara Sea. In: The 2nd International Conference on Environmental radioactivity in the Arctic. Oslo, August 21-25, 1995, NRPA.
  12. Mahura A., Baklanov A., (2003) Assessment of possible airborne impact from nuclear risk sites – Part II: probabilistic analysis of atmospheric transport patterns in Euro-Arctic region. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, Vol. 3, pp 5319-5356.
  13. Mahura A., Baklanov A., Sørensen J.H. (2005a) Long-Term Dispersion Modelling: Assessment of Atmospheric Transport and Deposition Patterns from Nuclear Risk Sites in Euro-Arctic Region. J. Computational Technologies, 10(2): 112-134.
  14. Mahura A. G., A. Baklanov, J.H. Sørensen, F.L. Parker, V. Novikov, K. Brown, K. L. Compton (2005b) Assessment of potential atmospheric transport and deposition patterns due to Russian Pacific fleet operations. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 101, 261 – 287.
  15. Mahura A., A. Baklanov, J.H. Sørensen (2009) Estimation of Potential Impact on Copenhagen Denmark, due to Accidental Releases at Nuclear Risk Sites, International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 39(1/2), 159-167.
  16. Melnikov, N.N., V.A. Naumov, V.P. Konoukhine, P.V. Amossov, S.A. Goussak, A.V. Naumov (2001) Radioecological aspects for the safety of radioactive waste and spent fuel underground disposal in the European North of Russia. Kola Science Center, Apatity. 194 p.
  17. NACC (1998) Cross-border environmental problems emanating from defence-related installations and activities. Vol 1. Phase 1: 1993-1995. Report no 204. North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.
  18. Ostvach, I., S. Ballestra, M.S. Baxter et al. (1995) IAEA-MOL’s contribution to the investigation in the Kara sea dumping sites. In: The 2nd International Conference on Environmental radioactivity in the Arctic. Oslo, August 21-25, 1995, NRPA.
  19. Pryde, P.R. and D.J. Bradley (1994) Geography of radioactive contamination in the former USSR. Post-Soviet Geography, 10, 557-593.
  20. Sørensen, J. H., A. Baklanov and S. Hoe (2007) The Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere. J. Envir. Radioactivity, 96: 122-129.
Download full text (PDF)