Water resources of Ukraine in the XXI century under climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)

Authors: Loboda, N.S., and Y.V. Bozhok

Year: 2016

Issue: 17

Pages: 114-122

Abstract

Data of climate change scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) were used. They were proposed for consideration in the Fifth Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Average long-term annual flow values using meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) from the scenarios for the period 2011-2050 were calculated. 84 points (grid nodes) uniformly distributed on the territory of Ukraine were studied. The calculations were made based on the model “climate-runoff”, developed in Odessa State Environmental University. Projection of changes in water resources was given by comparing the calculation results in the past (before 1989) and in the future (2011-2050).

The major trends in water resources of Ukraine were established.

It is shown that by the middle of the XXI century reducing of water resources is expected  on the plain territory of Ukraine (70% in the southeast). In the geographical zone of the Ukrainian Carpathians, especially in the Tisa river basin, its stability or growth is possible.

Analysis of changes in the ratio of moisture and heat resources showed that climate aridity will be intensify and the insufficient moisture zone and the semiarid zone will be widen.

Tags: climate change scenarios; climatic runoff; prediction of water resources changes; the model "climate-runoff"; water resources

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