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References
- N.V. Danilova Evaluation of the influence of climate change on the productivity of millet in the central part of Ukraine
- Polevoy A. N., Bozhko L. E., Barsukova E. A. Impact of climat changes on agro-climatic indices of the vegetative period of main agricultural crops
Papers
Climate change is a change of climatic conditions in the global atmosphere and on the Earth in general (or within its individual zones or territories) caused directly or indirectly due by the human activity on the planet, which are overlaid on the natural climatic variations (fluctuations) and observed during comparable periods of time.
Both the climate of Ukraine and the global climate are changing, but warming within our territory progresses even faster than in other regions of the Northern Hemisphere.
Ukraine in general and southern regions in particular are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change – droughts, extremely high temperatures, inefficient precipitation, reduced irrigated area cause of precipitation amount and regime, severer and more long-lasting droughts, reduced water availability.
The majority of arable land in Ukraine are located in zones of unstable and insufficient humidity, it is quite possible that for plant growing, especially for growing winter crops and early spring crops, climate change will rather have a positive effect than negative one.
Among the main types of cereals millet is the most common one. It is valuable for its groats, which is known by its high eating quality.
Millet as a fast-growing crop having a certain agrotechnical importance: it is used as a backup crop for re-sowing dead winter crops and is suitable for stubble and post-harvest sowing, it also can be used as a cover culture for perennial grass.
Millet is one of the most drought-resistant and heat-resistant crops. It is able to withstand heat injuries which is very important in arid areas and during dry years, when other grain crops have reduced yield. Millet suffers less from pests and diseases than other crops.
The task was to evaluate the agro-climatic conditions of millet crops formation in the central part of Ukraine under conditions of climate change. The study of the impact of climate change on the formation of millet productivity for different time intervals was performed by comparing the data of the RCP scenario and the average long-term climatic and agro-climatic parameters. The influence of agroclimatic conditions on the dynamics of increase of agroecological yield of different levels is also assessed.
- Adamenko, T.I., Kulbida, M.I., Prokopenko, A.L. (Eds). (2011). Ahroklimatychnyi dovidnyk po terytorii Ukrainy [Agroclimatic reference book for territories of Ukraine]. Kamianets-Podilsk. (in Ukr.)
- Adamenko, T.I. (2014). Ahroklimatychne zonuvannia terytorii Ukrainy z vrakhuvanniam zminy klimatu [Agro-climatic zoning of Ukraine taking into account climate change]. Kyiv: VEGO «MAMA-86». (in Ukr.)
- Ivani Zhuzhanna. (October 2015). Pidvyshchennia stiikosti do zminy klimatu silskohospodarskoho sektoru Pivdnia Ukrainy [Increased resistance to climate change agricultural sector of the South Ukraine]. Sentendre, Hungary. (in Ukr.)
- Stepanenko, S.M., Pol’ovyi, A.M., Demianiuk, O.S., Dronova, O.O. (2014). [Changes in the precipitation regime in Ukraine]. Ahroekoloh. ž. [Agroecolog. J.], 02, 10-16. (in Ukr.)
- Pol’ovyi, A.M. (2012). Otsinka vplyvu zmin klimatu na zminy ahroklimatychnykh resursiv Luhanskoho rehionu, umovy rostu ta produktyvnist silskohospodarskykh kultur i pryrodnoi roslynnosti. Rekomendatsii shchodo adaptatsii do tsykh zmin [Assessing the impact of climate change on changes in agro-climatic resources of Lugansk region, the conditions of growth and productivity of crops and natural vegetation. Recommendation to adapt to these changest]. Odesa. (in Ukr.)
- Detlef, P. Van Vuuren. (2014). Representative Concentration Pathways. Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving.
- Sultan, B., Roudier, P., Quirion, P., Alhassane, A., Muller, B., Dingkuhn, M. et al. (2013). Assessing climate change impacts on sorghum and millet yields in the Sudanian and Sahelian savannas of West Africa. Enviroment Research Leters, 8(1). DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014040
- Uvirkaa Akumaga, Aondover Tarhule, Claudio Piani, Bouba Traore, Ado A. Yusuf. (2018). Utilizing Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Adaptation Options in the Niger River Basin, West Africa. Agronomy, 8(2). DOI:10.3390/agronomy8020011
- Sandeep, V.M., Bapuji, B., Bharathi, G., Pramod, P., Chowdary, P.S., Patel, N.R., Vijaya Kumar, P. (2017). Projecting future changes in water requirement of grain sorghum in India. Journal of Agrometeorology, 19(3), 217-225.
- Gao1, Y., Fu, J.S., Drake, J.B., Lamarque, J.F., Liu, Y. (2013). The impact of emission and climate change on ozone in the United States under representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 607-621.
- Jacob, D., Van den Hurk, B.JJ.M., Andre, U., Elgered, G., Fortelius, C., Graham, L.P. et al. (2001). A comprehensive model intercomparison study investigating the water budget during the BALTEX-PIDCAP period. Meteor. Atm., 77, 61-73.
- Polevoy, A.N. (1983). Teoriya i raschet produktivnosti sel’skokhozyaystvennykh kul’tur [Theory and calculation of the productivity of agricultural cultures]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat. (in Russ.)
- Tarko, A.M. (2005). Antropogennye izmeneniya global’nykh biosfernykh protsessov [Anthropogenic changes of global biosphere processes]. Moscow: FIZMATLIT. (in Russ.)
- Pol’ovyi, A.M. (2007). Modeliuvannia hidrometeorolohichnoho rezhymu ta produktyvnosti ahroekosystem [Modeling of hydrometeorological regimes and agro-ecosystems’ productivity]. Kyiv: KNT. (in Ukr.)
Article in question investigates indicators of the moisture-temperature regime for the period of 1986 – 2005 (base period) and compares them to their expected changes calculated for different scenarios of climate change GFDL-30 %, A1B, A2, RCP4,5 and RCP8,5 for the period of 2021 – 2050 on the territory of Ukraine. Calculations reviled that most abrupt changes in moisturetemperature indicators in different soil-climatic zones of Ukraine can be expected in case of scenarios GFDL-30 %, А1В and А2. In case of scenarios of climate change RСР4,5, RСР8,5 thermal indicators are expected to be at the level of multilevel averages in all natural and climatic zones of Ukraine, except for Southern Steppe, where they are expected to grow. The greatest changes in all areas are expected under scenario GFDL-30 %, and they will increase from north to south. Under scenario А1В the greatest difference between calculated values and average multi-year values will be observed in the Forest-Steppe zone and in the Southern Steppe. Under scenarios RCP4,5 и RCP8,5 significant changes in the temperature regime are predicted only for the south and east of Ukraine. At the same time, according to the scenario of RCP4.5, a significant increase in seasonal winter air temperatures is forecasted.
Analysis of the results of calculations for different climatic scenarios of water availability indicators for different natural and climatic zones of Ukraine for the period from 2021 to 2050 reviled that the most drastic changes in the climatic parameters of humidification are expected in the case of the scenarios GFDL-30 %, A1B and A2. In case of climate change scenarios RCP4.5, RCP8.5, no quick changes in the distribution of precipitation over the territory of Ukraine should be expected. The greatest amount of precipitation for the year and in average for the seasons of the year is projected for the western regions of the country, the least one – for the southern regions. At the same time, for most regions the trend to increase the amount of precipitation is most likely in the case of the development of the GFDL-30 %, A1B and A2 scenarios. However, according to the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, rainfall is expected to decline for the year as a whole and especially in the summer season in comparison with the actual for 1986 – 2005.
- Adamenko T. I., Kul’bida M. I., Prokopenko A. L. (Eds). Ahroklimatychnyy dovidnyk po terytoriiy Ukraiyny [An agroclimatic reference book on territories of Ukraine]. Kamyanets-Podilsk, 2011. 107 p.
- Stepanenko S. M., Pol’ovyy A. M. Otsinka vplyvu klimatychnykh zmin na haluzi ekonomiky Ukrainy [An estimation of influence of climatic changes on industry of economy of Ukraine]. Odessa: Ekolohiya, 2011. 694 p.
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- Krakovs’ka S. V., Palamarchuk L. V., Shedemenko I. P., Dyukel’ G. O., Gnatyuk N. V. Nauk. pratsi UkrNDGMIProc. UkrSRHMI, 2008, no. 257. pр. 42-60. (In Ukrainian)
- Loginov V. F. Prichiny i sledstviya klimaticheskikh izmeneniy [Causes and effects of climatic changes].
Minsk: Navuka i tekhnika, 1992. 230 p. - Semenov S. M. (Ed.). Metody otsenki posledstviy izmeneniya klimata dlya fizicheskikh i biologicheskikh sistem [Methods of estimation of consequences of change of climate for fisical and biological systems]. Moscow, 2012. 511 p.
- Polevoy A. N. Teoriya i raschet produktivnosti sel’skokhozyaystvennykh kul’tur [Theory and calculation of
the productivity of agricultural cultures]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1983. 175 p. - Pol’ovyy A. M. Sil’s’kohospodars’ka meteorolohija [Agricultural meteorology]. Odessa. «TES», 2012. 635 p.
- Tarko A. M. Antropogennye izmeneniya global’nykh biosfernykh protsessov [Anthropogenic changes of global biosphere processes]. Moscow: FYZMATLYT, 2005. 231 p.
- Vasyl’chenko V. V., Rashchun M. V., Trohymova I. V. Ukraina ta global’nyy parnykovyy efekt. Knyha 2. Vrazlyvist’ i adaptatsiya ekolohichnykh ta ekonomichnykh system do zminy klimatu [Ukraine and global hotbed effect. Book 2. Impressionability and adaptation of the ecological and economic systems to the change of climate]. Kyiv: Agency for Rational Energy Use and Ecology, 1998. 208 p.
- Christensen J. H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R. K. Kolli, W.-T. Kwon, R. Laprise, V. Magaña Rueda, L. Mearns, C. G. Menéndez, J. Räisänen, A. Rinke, A. Sarr, P. Whetton. Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of WG I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007. 94 p. (Eds: Solomon S. D., Qin M., Manning Z., Chen M., Mar-quis K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller ).
- Jacob D., B. JJ .M. Van den Hurk, U. Andre, G. Elgered, C. Fortelius, L. P. Graham, S. D. Jackson, U. Karstens, Chr. Kopken, R. Lindau, R. Podzun, B. Rockel, F. Rubel, B. H. Sass, R. N. B. Smith, X. Yang. A comprehensive model inter-comparison study investigating the water budget during the BALTEX-PIDCAP period. Meteor. Atm., 2001, no. 77, pp. 61-73.
- Roeckner E., K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, M. Cristoph, M. Claussen, L. Dumenil, M. Esch, U. Schlese, U. Schulzweida. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck-Institute fur Meteorologie, Report. 1996, no. 218.