Authors: Sumak E.N., Shakur V.N.
The article describes the methods of making short-term weather forecasts and storm warnings in the Hydrometeorological Department of the Republic of Belarus using different sources of information (monitoring of synoptic situation, use of various satellite information, radar data etc.). It presents information about an observation network operating in the country (upper-air and surface observations). It also indicates the aims and results of the BALTRAD project resulting in creation of a modern, real-time meteorological radar network which connects the Republic of Belarus and the countries of Baltic region.
The article contains short information about use of numerical weather forecasting models, in particular, the mesoscale model WRF-ARW which runs on the cluster system available in the Hydrometeorological Department. The GFS model data (0.25° increment) are used as a source of input data for modelling. Once launched the WRF model generates a forecast with advance time of 48 hours while time resolution of output data is equal to 1 hour. Calculation is performed as per “nested grids” with two domains having spatial resolution of 15 and 3 km which provides detailed information and enables making forecasts of local phenomena.
Special attention is paid to products of the department of meteorological forecasts, especially to the hydrometeorological bulletin for the President with its structure being specified. The risk gradations are shown and characterized with allocation of colour codes based thereon in order to introduce respective forecast meteorological products: the weather is not dangerous (“green”); the weather is potentially dangerous (“yellow”); the weather is dangerous (“orange”); the weather is very dangerous (“red”).
The article specifies current problems arising during conduction of hydrometeorological activities and the ways they can be solved as indicated in the Strategy for Development of Hydrometeorological and Environmental Monitoring Activities in the Republic of Belarus until 2030.
Tags: development prospects; hydrometeorological activity; numerical models of atmosphere; weather forecast; гидрометеорологическая деятельность; мониторинг; перспективы развития; прогноз погоды; численные модели атмосферы
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