Authors: Loboda N.S., Bozhok Yu.V.
Year: 2016
Issue: 18
Pages: 112-120
Abstract
The results of calculations of possible state of water resources within The Danube River basin in the XXI century were shown. This estimation was based on the model “climate-runoff”, developed in Odessa State Environmental University. As the input to model data of climate scenario A1B (model REMO) were used. Average long-term annual flow values using meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) from the scenario for different climatic periods of XXI century were calculated. 32 points (grid nodes) which were uniformly distributed over the catchment area of The Danube River were studied. Projection of changes in water resources was given by comparing the calculation results in the past (before 1989) and in the future (1990-2030, 2031-2070, 2071-2100).
The major trends in climatic factors of the flow formation and water resources were established. It is shown that the climatic conditions in the XXI century on the The Danube River catchment is unfavorable for the formation of runoff. The positive component of the water balance (precipitation) remains unchanged and the negative component (evaporation) increases.
Isolines of norms of climatic annual flow within the whole basin were constructed. It is established that by 2030 a significant reduction of water resources will not occur; during the 2031-2070 diminution will be 17,9 %; during the 2071-2100 – 22,0 %.
Tags: climate change scenarios; forecast of water resources; the model "climate-runoff"; water resources
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