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/ Issue: 2017
References
- Shkolnyy E. P. Normal law of distribution of wind velocity vector in polar coordinates
- Ivus G. P., Khomenko G. V., Kovalkov I. A. , Sosmiy E. V. Hydrodynamic instability in the cold-core low area and its effect on the weather
- Malytska L. V. Discomfort of weather conditions during winter period in Ukraine
- Klok S. V. Current state and tendencies of distribution of ground frosts within the territiry of Ukraine
- Hrynchak V. V. Analysis of climate change in Dnipropetrovsk region
- Dmytrenko V. P., Odnolyetok L. P., Kryvoshein О. О., Krukivska A. V. Development of the methodology of estimating of agricultural crop yield potential with consideration of climate and agrophytotechnology impac
- Polevoy A. N., Bozhko L. E., Barsukova E. A. Impact of climat changes on agro-climatic indices of the vegetative period of main agricultural crops
- Zhygailo О. L., Zhygailo Т. S. Modeling of sunflower’s productivity under future climate changes in Ukraine considering the scenarios of RCP antropogenic impact
- Grigoryan A. T. Altitude and zonal regularities and agro-ecological estimation of bioclimatic rhythms in Armenia
- Gopchenko E., Burlutskaya M., Romanchuk M. Scientific and methodological base for calculation of rain and spring floods maximum runoff
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- Kulibabin O. H. To substantiate measures aimed at prevention of siltation of supply and transport channels in the Danube lakes (study of hydraulic and alluvial regimes)
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- Preface
- Solution of First all-Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Convention
- Stepanenko S.M. On the state and prospects of higher hydrometeorological education in Ukraine: lessons and sugestions
- Ivus H.P., Мartazinova V.F. Brief overview of meteorological research in the late XX – early XXI century in Ukraine
- Balabukh V., Khokhlov V. Problems and prospects of climatology development in Ukraine
- Shkolnyy E.P., Sushchenko A.I. Statiatical structure of the fields of geopotential heights of 850 HPA pressure level in the western sector of the southern hemisphere
- Samchuk E.V. Spatial and temporal identification of baric systens in low troposphere and midtroposphere
- Sumak E.N., Shakur V.N. Technologies of making meteorological weather forecasts implemented in the Hydrometeorological Department of the Respublic of Belarus
- Prokharenya М.I. Convective phenomena forecasting based on output data of numerical models available in the Hydrometeorological Centre of the Republic of Belarus
- Rybchenko L.S., Savchuk S.V. Monitoring the solar energy resources of Ukraine
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- Tuchkovenko Yu.S., Aleksandrov B.H., Andrianova O.R., Golodov M.F., Komorin V.M., Matyhin O.S., Minicheva G.G., Popov Yu.I. Odessa scientific cluster for oceanographic research: current state and prospects
Papers
It is impossible to organize wind energy systems without studying of wind speed regime at the surface layer of the atmosphere within a specific area and at climatic scales. Such studies are often accompanied by approximations of probabilities of wind speed performed in the form of normal law of a system of random values presented by a zonal u and a meridional which are components of a wind speed vector. It is suggested that, for the purposes of wind energy, display of a wind speed vector in polar coordinates (r,a) r – where is a module of wind speed and a – is a polar angle appears to be more preferable. The article shows a transform from a normal law of distribution of probabilities with density ф(u,v) to a normal law distribution with density ф(r,a) completed by means of functional transformation with elliptic dispersion in place. Based on a normal law of distribution ф(r,a) and through integration with respect to corresponding variables (r,a) individual distributions of probabilities ф(r) and ф(a) as well as conditional distributions of probabilities ф(r/a)and ф(a/r)were obtained in the areas of their existence. The article shows individual distributions in case of circular and elliptic dispersion of a wind speed vector. It shows that an individual distribution of a wind speed probability in case of circular
dispersion and in the absence of correlated dependence turns into the Rayleigh’s distribution and a conditional distribution of a polar angle degenerates in an even distribution. The cases of distributions with dispersions of a wind speed module having elliptic properties subject to availability of correlated connection between wind speed components were also studied. Calculation of probabilities of a polar angle being within different sections of the area 0≤α≤2π with set values of a wind speed module also took place. Numerical experiments proved the advantage of such modeling of distributions of wind speed vector.
- Obuhov S. G., Plotnikov I.’ A., Sarsikeev E. Z. Dynamic model of the longitudinal component of the wind speed. Sovremennye problemy nauki i obrazovaniya – Current problems of science and education, 2013, no. 5, pp. 139 – 145. (In Russian)
- Van Der Hoven I. Power spectrum of horizontal wind speed in the frequency range from 0.0007 to 900 cycles per hour. Meteor., 1957, no. 14, pp. 160-164.
- Shkol’nyy E. P. Fіzyka atmosfery [Physics of the atmos- phere]. Kyiv: KNT, 2007. 508
- Laykhtman D. L. (Ed.) Dinamicheskaya meteorologiya (Teoreticheskaya meteorologiya). [Dynamic Meteorology (The- oretical Meteorology)]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 607 p.
- Kaplya E. V. Statistical model of the dynamics of wind speed and direction. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya – Meteorology and Hydrology, 2014, no. 12, pp. 29 – 34. (In Russian)
- Kaplya E. V. Finite drive control system windmill blades finite drive control system windmill blades. Avtomatizatsiya i sovremennye tekhnologii – Automation and modern technology, 2013, no. 5, pp. 13 – 17. (In Russian)
- Mahrt L. Surface wind direction variability. J. Appl. Meterol and Clim., 2011, no. 50, pp. 144-152.
- Kobysheva N. V., Stepanskaya G. A., Chmutova Z. E. Assessment of potential wind energy resources on the territory of the USSR. Trudy GGO – Proc. of the Main Geophysical Observatory, 1983, vol. 475, pp. 7–12. (In Russian)
- Sapickiy K. A., Kobysheva N. V. Potential hydropower resources of Georgia. Trudy GGO — Proc. of the Main Geophysical Observatory, 1983, vol.375, pp. 12 – 15. (In Russian)
- Guterman I. G. Raspredelenie vetra nad severnym polushariem [Wind distribution over the Northern Hemisphere]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1965. 252
- Yushkov V. P. Synoptic wind velocity fluctuations in the atmospheric boundary layer. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya – Meteorology and Hydrology, 2012, no. 4, pp. 17 – 28. (In Russian)
- Vencel E. S. Teoriya veroyatnostey [Theory of probability]. Moscow, 1958. 464
- Gnadenko B. V. Kurs teorii veroyatnostey [The course in probability theory]. Moscow: Fizmatlit, 1961. 396
- Smirnov N. V., Dunin-Barkovskiy I. V. Kurs teorii veroyatnostey i matematicheskoy statistiki dlya tekhnicheskikh prilozheniy [The course of the theory of probability and mathematical statistics for technical applications]. Moscow: Nauka, 1969. 511
- Mitropol’skiy A. K. Tekhnika statisticheskikh vychisleniy [Technique statistical calculations]. Moscow: Nauka, 1971. 576 p.
- Kapustin S. N, Chervonyj A. A., Kolinichenko B. A. Teoriya veroyatnostey, matematicheskaya statistika i metody issledovaniya operatsiy [Probability theory, mathematical statistics and operations research techniques]. Moscow, 1961. 594 p.
- Levin B. R. Teoreticheskie osnovy statisticheskoy radiotekhniki. Kniga 1 [Theoretical Foundations of Statistical Radio Engineering. Book 1]. Moscow, 1966. 728 p.
Cold-core lows are poorly understood cyclones, but they significantly impact on the formation of weather conditions in Ukraine, especially in its central and western regions.
In the paper, the evolution of a cold-core low, which is associated with the enlargement of rain-fall areas with thunderstorms over the Western Europe and Ukraine. The low formed on July 21tst, 2014, in a deep cold trough of a Rossby wave over Atlantic Europe. During period 21-24 July the low was moving to the East and there were precipitation zones under its eastern part. Therefore, sizes of precipitation zones cannot always be explained by impact of front and thermic instability, in this paper it is tried to assess hydrodynamic instability in forming of precipitation in a cold-core low. The research method is based on the use of the linear theory of the hydrodynamic instability of the zonal flow with Rossby waves.
To investigate barotropic instability fields of meridional profiles of absolute vorticity. It is shown that flow in which the low moved was barotropic unstable. Using baroclinic instability characteristics (Phillips’s criterion) Baroclinic zones were revealed in atmospheric fronts and in northern part of area in question.
It has been shown that hydrodynamic instability, both barotropic and baroclinic, in the eastern part of the cold-core low leads to intensification of atmospheric processes on the fronts, which was revealed to strengthening of precipitation and in the enlargement of zones of their formation.
- Palmen E., Newton C. W. Atmospheric Circulation Systems: their structure and physical interpretation. 1969. 602 р.
- Yusupov Yu N. About objective forecast of squalls. Trudy GMTS Rossii – Proceedings of the HMC Russia, 2008, vol. 342, pp. 55-78. (In Russian)
- Petterssen Sverre. Weather analysis and forecasting. McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc. New York, Toronto, London, 1956.
- Shakina N. P. Gidrodinamicheskaya neustoychivost’ v atmosfere [Hydrodynamical instability in the atmosphere]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1990. 309 p.
- Ivus G. P., Zubkovych S. O., Khomenko G. V., Kovalkov I. A. Vìsn. Odes. derž. ekol. Unìv. – Bull. of OSENU, 2014, vol. 18, pp. 48-55. (In Ukrainian). http://bulletin.odeku.edu.ua/uk/usloviya-formirovaniya-zon-opasnogo-vetra-na-territorii-ukrainy/
- Ivus G. P., Khomenko G. V., Kovalkov I. A. Vestnyk Gidromettsentra Chernogo y Azovskogo morey – Bulletin of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Black and Azov Seas, 2013, vol. 1 (15), pp. 18-25. (In Ukrainian)
- Ivus G.P., Zubkovych S.O., Khomenko G.V., Kovalkov I.A. Conditions of formation of dangerous wind zones on the territory of Ukraine. European Applied Science, Europaische Fachhochs schule, 2014, ed. 10, рр. 59-64.
- Shakina N. P. Lektsii po dinamicheskoy meteorologii [Lectures on Dynamiv Meteorology]. Moscow: Triada LTD, 2013. 160 p.
- Shakina N. P. Dinamika atmosfernykh frontov i tsiklonov [Dynamics of Atmospheric Fronts and Cyclones]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1985. 263 p.
At the end of the XX century and at the beginning of the XXI century climate change was one of the major problems of international community. Today the problem is still relevant. This is dueto a significant change of living conditions of population, especially due to thermal regime change which serves as the main factor directly determining comfort of weather and heat balance of a human body.
In winter period weather comfort depends on the combination of low temperature and high wind speed. It enhances a negative impact on human beings and indicates winter severity in general. This article describes discomfort of weather conditions during winter season in Ukraine. Basic characteristics of thermal regime and wind regime reflecting general features of discomfort during this season are discussed. Estimate of discomfort also includes calculation of comfort indexes – special mathematical formulas that formalize the influence of main meteorological parameters on a human body.
Since the beginning of the XXI century there is a tendency to reduction of cold discomfort in Ukraine. Such reduction is associated with reduction of the Bodman index values. The Siple and Passel index (atmosphere cooling capacity) has the same tendency. In most regions of Ukraine the reality of such changes for both indexes constitutes 90–99 %.
- Kalkstein L. S. Biometeorology – Looking at the Links Between Weather, Climate and Health. World Meteorological Organization. Bulletin 2. 2001, vol. 50, pp. 1–6.
- Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. IPCC Working Group I Contribution to AR5: Approved Summary for Policymakers. URL: http://www.climate2013.org/spm.
- Sari Kovats, Kristie L. Ebi, Bettina Menne (Eds). Methods for assessment of human health and public health adaptation to climate change. URL: http://www.euro.who.int/ __data/assets/pdf_file/0010/91099/E81923R.pdf.
- Revich B. A., Maleev V. V. Izmeneniya klimata i zdorov’e naseleniya Rossii: analiz situatsii i prognoznye otsenki [Climate change and the health of the Russian population: analysis of the situation and forecast estimates]. Moscow: LENAND, 2011. 208 p.
- Kalkstein L. S., Davis R. S. Weather and human mortality: An evaluation of demographic and interregional responses in the United States. Annals of association of American geographers, 1989, vol. 79, no. 1, pp. 44–64
- Franziska Matthies, Graham Bickler, Neus Cardenosa Marin, Simon Hales (Eds). Action plans for protecting public health from the effects of heat waves. URL: http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/147873/E91347R.pdf.
- Ukraine’s Sixth National Communication on Climate Change prepared for execution of articles 4 and 12 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and Article 7 of the Kyoto Protocol. Kiev, 2012. 342 p. (In Russian). http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports.
- Stepanenko S. M., Pol’ovyy А. M. (Eds.) Otsinka vplyvu klimatychnykh zmin na haluzi ekonomiky Ukrainy [The assessment of impact of climate change on the Ukraine industry]. Odessa: Ecology Publ., 2011. 696 p.
- Stepanenko S. M., Pol’ovyy А. M. (Eds.) Klimatychni zminy ta ikh vplyv na sfery ekonomiky Ukrainy [Climate change and its impact on sectors of the Ukraine economy]. Odessa: TES Publ., 2015. 520 p.
- Arnol’di I. A. Akklimatizatsiya cheloveka na severe i yuge [Man’s acclimatization in the north and south]. Moscow: Medgiz, 1962. 71 p.
- Nazarova I. V. Experience of computing “severe” weather on tabulating machinery by Bodman’s formula. Trudy NII aeroklimatologii [Proc. SRI of aeroclimatology]. Moscow: Gidrometeoizdat, 1959, issue 8, pp. 3-25.
- Kobysheva N. V., Stadnik V. V., Klyueva M. V. (Eds.) Rukovodstvo po spetsializirovannomu klimatologiches-komu obsluzhivaniyu ekonomiki [Manual of specialized climatological services for economy]. Saint Petersburg, 2008. 336 p.
- Siple P. A., Passel C. F. Measurements of dry atmospheric cooling in subfreezing temperatures. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society. April 1945, vol. 89 (1), pp. 177–199.
- Balabukh V. O, Lavrynenko O. M., Malytska L. V. Ukr. gìdrometeorol. ž. – Ukr. hydrometeor. j., 2014, no. 14. http://uhmj.odeku.edu.ua/uk/category/2014-uk/14-uk/ (In Ukrainian).
- Lipіns’kiy V. M., Dyachuk V. A., Babichenko V. M. (Eds.) Klimat Ukrainy [Climate of Ukraine]. Kyiv: Rayevs’kyy Publ., 2003. 343 p.
- Isaеv A. A. Ekologicheskaya klimatologiya [Ecological climatology]. Moscow: Nauch. mir, 2001. 458 p.
- Honcharova L. D., Reshetchenko S. I. Ukr. Gìdro-meteorol. ž. – Ukr. hydrometeor. j., 2010, no. 7, http://uhmj.odeku.edu.ua/uk/category/2010-uk/07-uk/ (In Ukrainian).
The purpose of this work consists in identifying the main trends of present-day formation and distribution of ground frosts throughout Ukraine. For this purpose the analysis of a minimum air temperature field has been conducted based on observation data at 186 stations of Ukraine for the period from 1991 to 2014. It is known that extreme values of air temperature are much more informative than its average values. Therefore analyses of meteorological extreme values usually lead to more substantial and qualitative results.
In the course of the work, occurrences of frost in April, May and September have been studied separately from each other while these three months are deemed to be the most dangerous in terms of frosts’ frequency and negative impact. In order to identify trends to occurrence of this dangerous weather phenomenon a comparison of two decades of 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 has been made.
In addition, the latest observation period of 2011-2014 has been considered separately taking into account the results of comparative analysis of two preceding decades.
The results of the work indicate a decrease of number of September days having this dangerous weather phenomenon during the last few years. However, recurrence of frosts remains stably high in April while in May it appears to be high only in certain years. The obtained results also indicate the fact that the northern and northeastern territories of Ukraine appear to be the most vulnerable to frosts.
Thus it should be noted that a threat of adverse consequences caused by ground frosts is still there and remains to be quite high, especially for agriculture.
- Klok S. V., Lazuka V. A. Dinamika opasnyh javlenij pogody holodnogo sezona na territorii Ukrainy za period
1968-2010gg. Mizhnarodna Konferentsiya «Astronomiya ta fizyka kosmosu v Kyyivs’komu universyteti» [Dynamics of violent weathers of cold season on territory of Ukraine for period 1968-2010. International Conference “Astronomy and Space Physics in Kyiv University,”]. Kyyiv, 21-23 May, 2013, pp. 95-96. (in Russian) - Kobzystyy P. I. Osoblyvosti synoptychnykh protsesiv v Ukrayini [Features of synoptic processes in Ukraine].
Kyyiv, 2002. 88 p. - Kochuhova E. A., Koshkyn D. A. Trends in annual extremes of surface air temperature in the Irkutsk region.
Geography and Natural Resources, 2010, no. 2, pp. 63-69. (in Russian) - Osadchyy V. I., Babichenko V. M., Nabyvanets’ Yu. B., Skrynyk O. Ya. Dynamika temperatury povitrya v Ukrayini za period instrumental’nykh meteorolohichnykh sposterezhen’ [Dynamics of temperature in Ukraine for the period of instrumental meteorological observations]. Kyyiv: Nika- Tsentr, 2013. 256 p.
- Khromov S. P., Petrosyants M. V. Meteorologiya i klimatologiya [Meteorology and climatology]. Moscow: Publ. of Moscow university, 2001. 528 p.
- http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-eport/ar5/syr/
- Osadchyy V. I., Babichenko V. M. (Eds). Daty perekhodu temperatury povitrya v Ukrayini za suchasnykh umov klimatu [Dates of transition of temperature in Ukraine in modern climate conditions]. Kyev, 2010. 304 p.
- Martazinova V. F., Klok S. V. The current and future state of the average temperature of the northern part of the western Antarctic Peninsula sector of Antarctica. Nauk. pratsi UkrNDHMI – Scientific papers of UcrSRHMI, 2012, issue. 263, pp. 53-63. (in Russian)
- http: // www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
The decision about writing this article was made after familiarization with the “Brief Climatic Essay of Dnepropetrovsk City (prepared based on observations of 1886 – 1937)” written by the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Weather Department of the Hydrometeorological Service A. N. Mikhailov.
The guide has a very interesting fate: in 1943 it was taken by the Nazis from Dnipropetrovsk and in 1948 it returned from Berlin back to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological and Environmental Directorate of the USSR, as evidenced by a respective entry on the Essay’s second page.
Having these invaluable materials and data of long-term weather observations in Dnipro city we decided to analyze climate changes in Dnipropetrovsk region.
The article presents two 50-year periods, 1886-1937 and 1961-2015, as examples. Series of observations have a uniform and representative character because they were conducted using the same methodology and results processing.
We compared two main characteristics of climate: air temperature and precipitation.
The article describes changes of average annual temperature values and absolute temperature values. It specifies the shift of seasons’ dates and change of seasons’ duration.
We studied the changes of annual precipitation and peculiarities of their seasonable distribution. Apart from that peculiarities of monthly rainfall fluctuations and their heterogeneity were specified.
Since Dnipro city is located in the center of the region the identified tendencies mainly reflect changes of climatic conditions within the entire Dnipropetrovsk region.
- Mikhailov A. N. Brief Climatic Essay of Dnipropetrovsk (compiled on observations materials since 1886 to 1937). The Weather Service Sector of Dnipropetrovsk Hydrometeorological Department, 1938, 56 р. (In Russian, unpublished)
- Materials on Observations of The Dnepropetrovsk Civil Aviation Meteorological Station for the period of 1961-2015. The Dnipropetrovsk Regional Centre of Hydrometeorology, 2016, 600 р. (In Ukrainian, unpublished)
In the paper it is outlined the main methodological positions and the results of the approbation of new approaches to the integrated assessment of the potential of crop yields.
There are considered the theoretical foundations of a joint assessment of the biological, ecological and anthropogenic components of the yield potential of agricultural crops which are based on the ecosystem concept and the mathematical model “Weather-Crop Yield” developed by V. P. Dmytrenko. In the considered approaches the peculiarities of the influence of various environmental factors on the formation of crop yields are determined by indicators of various potential yields – general, climatic and trend (agrotechnological). Each type of yield potential can be used for evaluation of the effectiveness of the conditions of field crop growing for each factor taken into account, as well as the optimality criterion in the agrometeorological adaptation strategies and also as a criterion for the degree of sensitivity of the yield level to the conditions of crops cultivating.
The developed approaches are tested on the example of estimation of long-term dynamics of winter wheat yield potential in Ukraine. According to the results of the evaluation of different factors of the potential of the productivity of winter wheat for the periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2010 the dominant importance of organizational and technological processes in comparison with the contribution of changes of agroclimatic conditions has been determined in both periods.
- Dmitrenko V. P. Mathematical model of productivity of agricultural crops. Trudy UkrNIGMI – Works of UHMI, 1973, vol. 122, pp. 3-13. (In Russian)
- Dmitrenko V. P. About the models of crop yields calculation with consideration of hydrometeorological factors. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya – Meteorology and Hydrology, 1971, № 5, pp. 84-91. (In Russian)
- Dmitrenko V. P., Berdnik A. A. Statistical model of the geographical maximum of crop yields. Trudy UkrNIGMI Works of UHMI, 1974, vol. 131, pp. 11-23. (In Russian)
- Tooming Kh. G. Ekologicheskiye printsipy maksimalnoy produktivnosti posevov [Ecological principles of maximum crop productivity]. Leningrad: Hydrometeoizdat, 1984. 264 p.
- Tooming Kh. G. Method of standard yields. Vestn. s.-kh. nauki – Proceedings of agricultural science, 1982, no. 3 (306), pp. 89-94. (In Russian)
- Dmytrenko V. P. Pohoda, klimat i urozhay pol’ovykh kul’tur [Weather, climate and crop yields]. Kyiv: Nika-Tsentr, 2010. 620 p.
- Dmytrenko V. P. Principles and means of determination of potential crop yields on ecological and geographical bases. Nauk. pratsi UkrNDHMI – Scientific Works of UHMI, 2005, vol. 254, pp. 9-29. (In Ukrainian)
- Investigation of the influence of regional climatic changes in Ukraine on the properties of agroecosystems and mechanisms of their adaptation for intermittent variability of agrometeorological conditions and adverse events. Re-port about bresearch work, № 01124004652, 2012 (In Ukrainian, unpublished)
- Antomonov Yu. G. Modelirovaniye biologicheskikh sistem. Spravochnik [Modeling of biological systems. Directory]. Kiev: Naukova dumka, 1977, 260 p.
- Yuzbashev M. M., Manellya A. I. Statisticheskiy analiz tendentsiy i koleblenosti [Statistical analysis of trends and fluctuations]. Moscow: Finance and statistics, 1983, 208 p.
Article in question investigates indicators of the moisture-temperature regime for the period of 1986 – 2005 (base period) and compares them to their expected changes calculated for different scenarios of climate change GFDL-30 %, A1B, A2, RCP4,5 and RCP8,5 for the period of 2021 – 2050 on the territory of Ukraine. Calculations reviled that most abrupt changes in moisturetemperature indicators in different soil-climatic zones of Ukraine can be expected in case of scenarios GFDL-30 %, А1В and А2. In case of scenarios of climate change RСР4,5, RСР8,5 thermal indicators are expected to be at the level of multilevel averages in all natural and climatic zones of Ukraine, except for Southern Steppe, where they are expected to grow. The greatest changes in all areas are expected under scenario GFDL-30 %, and they will increase from north to south. Under scenario А1В the greatest difference between calculated values and average multi-year values will be observed in the Forest-Steppe zone and in the Southern Steppe. Under scenarios RCP4,5 и RCP8,5 significant changes in the temperature regime are predicted only for the south and east of Ukraine. At the same time, according to the scenario of RCP4.5, a significant increase in seasonal winter air temperatures is forecasted.
Analysis of the results of calculations for different climatic scenarios of water availability indicators for different natural and climatic zones of Ukraine for the period from 2021 to 2050 reviled that the most drastic changes in the climatic parameters of humidification are expected in the case of the scenarios GFDL-30 %, A1B and A2. In case of climate change scenarios RCP4.5, RCP8.5, no quick changes in the distribution of precipitation over the territory of Ukraine should be expected. The greatest amount of precipitation for the year and in average for the seasons of the year is projected for the western regions of the country, the least one – for the southern regions. At the same time, for most regions the trend to increase the amount of precipitation is most likely in the case of the development of the GFDL-30 %, A1B and A2 scenarios. However, according to the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, rainfall is expected to decline for the year as a whole and especially in the summer season in comparison with the actual for 1986 – 2005.
- Adamenko T. I., Kul’bida M. I., Prokopenko A. L. (Eds). Ahroklimatychnyy dovidnyk po terytoriiy Ukraiyny [An agroclimatic reference book on territories of Ukraine]. Kamyanets-Podilsk, 2011. 107 p.
- Stepanenko S. M., Pol’ovyy A. M. Otsinka vplyvu klimatychnykh zmin na haluzi ekonomiky Ukrainy [An estimation of influence of climatic changes on industry of economy of Ukraine]. Odessa: Ekolohiya, 2011. 694 p.
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Minsk: Navuka i tekhnika, 1992. 230 p. - Semenov S. M. (Ed.). Metody otsenki posledstviy izmeneniya klimata dlya fizicheskikh i biologicheskikh sistem [Methods of estimation of consequences of change of climate for fisical and biological systems]. Moscow, 2012. 511 p.
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the productivity of agricultural cultures]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1983. 175 p. - Pol’ovyy A. M. Sil’s’kohospodars’ka meteorolohija [Agricultural meteorology]. Odessa. «TES», 2012. 635 p.
- Tarko A. M. Antropogennye izmeneniya global’nykh biosfernykh protsessov [Anthropogenic changes of global biosphere processes]. Moscow: FYZMATLYT, 2005. 231 p.
- Vasyl’chenko V. V., Rashchun M. V., Trohymova I. V. Ukraina ta global’nyy parnykovyy efekt. Knyha 2. Vrazlyvist’ i adaptatsiya ekolohichnykh ta ekonomichnykh system do zminy klimatu [Ukraine and global hotbed effect. Book 2. Impressionability and adaptation of the ecological and economic systems to the change of climate]. Kyiv: Agency for Rational Energy Use and Ecology, 1998. 208 p.
- Christensen J. H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R. K. Kolli, W.-T. Kwon, R. Laprise, V. Magaña Rueda, L. Mearns, C. G. Menéndez, J. Räisänen, A. Rinke, A. Sarr, P. Whetton. Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of WG I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007. 94 p. (Eds: Solomon S. D., Qin M., Manning Z., Chen M., Mar-quis K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller ).
- Jacob D., B. JJ .M. Van den Hurk, U. Andre, G. Elgered, C. Fortelius, L. P. Graham, S. D. Jackson, U. Karstens, Chr. Kopken, R. Lindau, R. Podzun, B. Rockel, F. Rubel, B. H. Sass, R. N. B. Smith, X. Yang. A comprehensive model inter-comparison study investigating the water budget during the BALTEX-PIDCAP period. Meteor. Atm., 2001, no. 77, pp. 61-73.
- Roeckner E., K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, M. Cristoph, M. Claussen, L. Dumenil, M. Esch, U. Schlese, U. Schulzweida. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck-Institute fur Meteorologie, Report. 1996, no. 218.
Climate change is one of the major global issues. Climate is one of the most significant factors
determining the level of crop yields, including sunflower crops. Currently the sunflower planting
acreage in Ukraine has already reached its maximum value. Therefore the potential for increasing sunflower production should be aimed at increasing its yield.
To assess the impact of climate change on sunflower productivity the article considers modern scenarios of RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) such as RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. They belong to the scenarios of medium and high levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios cover the climatic period from 2021 to 2050. In order to conduct a comparative analysis of scenario meteorological values with previous data from the Agroclimatic Reference Book of Ukraine, the period from 1986 to 2005 was taken. It serves as a basic period for calculations.
Calculations were made for the following natural and climatic zones of Ukraine: East Forest-Steppe, Northern and Southern Steppe.
The article studies the influence of agroclimatic conditions on sunflower cultivation as per two interphase periods: shoots – blooming and blooming – picking maturity.
Study of sunflower productivity formation was carried out using a mathematical model of the water-heat regime and sunflower productivity. The model is based on the system of equations of radiation, heat and water balances and biomass balance in vegetation cover.
According to calculations a lowered temperature regime and sufficient moisture in the first half of sunflower vegetation season will favor the formation of leaves way more than during the basic period within the entire area under study. However, expected arid conditions in the second half of vegetation period will cause a very low sunflower moisture availability during this period which would lead to reduction of sunflower seeds’ crop-producing power. Analysis of agroclimatic conditions during vegetation season from sunflower shoots to its picking maturity showed that implementation of both scenarios would ensure expected weather conditions to be more favorable for sunflower growing in the eastern forest-steppe zone of Ukraine. The greatest risk of sunflower crops shortfall in certain years is expected in the southern steppe zone of Ukraine and significant losses should be expected in case of scenario RCP4.5 implementation.
- Mokhov I. I., Yeliseyev A. V. Modeling of global climate changes in the XX_XXIII centuries under new scenarios of anthropogenic impacts of RCP. Doklady akademii nauk [Reports of the Academy of Sciences], 2012, vol. 443, no. 6, pp. 732–736.
- Sereda K. Izmenenie klimata (Ukraina): ozhydaniya, prognozy, perspektivy [Climate change (Ukraine): expectations, forecasts, prospects]. http://awsassets.panda.org./downloads/kirill_sereda.pdf.
- Stepanenko S. M., Pol’ovyy A. M. Klimatychni zminy ta ikh vplyv na sfery ekonomiky Ukrayiny [Climate change and its influence on industry of economy of Ukraine]. Odessa: “TES”, 2015. 520 p.
- Sirotenko O. D. The future of agriculture in Russia due to expected climate changes. Problemy ekologicheksogo monitoringa i modelirovaniya agroekosistem [Environmental monitoring problems and ecosystem modeling], 2000, vol. XVII, pp. 258-274. (In Russian)
- Tkalich I. D. Tkalich YU. I., Rychik S. G. Tsvetok solntsa (osnovy biologii i agrotekhniki podsolnechnika)ю Dnepropetrovsk, 2011. 172 р. (Ed.: I. D. Tkalich)
- IS-ENES climate4impact portal. URL: http://climate4impact.eu
- Pol’ovyy A. M. Modelyuvannya hidrometeorolohichnoho rezhymu ta produktyvnosti ahroekosystem [Modeling of hydro-meteorological regimes and agro-ecosystems’ productivity]. Kyiv: KNT, 2007. 344 p.
- Khvalenskiy Yu. A. Sirotenko O. D. Polevoy A. N. Dinamicheskoe modelirovanie v agrometeorologii [The dynamic modeling in agrometeorology]. Leningrad, 1982. 145 p.
- Adamenko T. I., Kul’bida M. I., Prokopenko A. L. (Eds). Ahroklimatychnyy dovidnyk po terytoriyi Ukrayiny [An agroclimatic reference book on territories of Ukraine]. Kamyanets- Podilsk, 2011.107 p.
The article includes the data of long-term monitoring observations taken from 60 meteorological stations located at 450-3200 m above the sea level. It presents the results of study of time of occurrence, duration and spatial variability of bioclimatic rhythms of main ecotypes of agricultural crops under the conditions of high altitudes of the Republic of Armenia. It was found out that vertical gradients of the average periods of main phases of grow of winter wheat, potatoes, grapes and livestock pasturage within highland pastures fluctuate within 3-5 days / 100 m. Agro-ecological conditions for bioclimatic rhythms along high-altitude zones are estimated. The high-altitude regularities are determined and correlation dependence curves of time of occurrence of bioclimatic rhythms from absolute altitude are identified with specification of ways for optimizing heat and moisture availability and productivity of these crops. The probability of crop damage from drought, frosts in different periods of vegetation is calculated. Agro-climatic parameters of critical periods of growth and development of crops under study within high-altitude zones are determined which makes it possible to ensure production of stable and high yields. It became clear that the highest altitude for obtaining two crops a year after harvesting early spring grains, vegetables, potatoes is 1400 m above the sea level – in arid regions and 1200 m – in wet regions. It is proposed to develop a natural conveyor for fresh vegetables, potatoes, maize, fruit, dairy and other products using the vertical zonality of crops ripening and livestock pasturage within the summer pasture zone.
- Mkrtchyan R. S., Arustamyan Sh. A., Khachatryan L. A. Agrometeorologicheskie usloviya formirovaniya urozhaya ozimoy pshenitsy i metodika ego prognoza v ArmSSR [Agrometeorological Conditions for the Production of Win-ter Wheat Crop and its Prognosis in the Armenian SSR]. Moscow, 1984. 154 p.
- Reymers N. F. Prirodopol’zovanie: slovar’-spravochnik [Natural use: vocabulary directory]. Moscow: Publ. Mysl’, 1990. 638 p.
- Sistema Vedeniya Sel’skogo Khozyaystva Armenii [The system of agriculture in Armenia]. Erevan: Publ. Ayastan, 1988. 695 p. (Ed.: Melkonyan M. S.)
- Shnelle F. Fenologiya rasteniy [Phenology of plants]. Leningrad, 1961. 259 p.
- Shchegoleva S. V., Tavrovskiy V. A. Fenologicheskie nablyudeniya, organizatsiya i obrabotka [Phenological observations, organization and processing]. Leningrad: Nauka, 1982. 220 p.
- Agroklimaticheskie resursy ArmSSR [Agroclimatic resources of the Armenian SSR]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1976. 388 p.
- Gringof I. G., Kleshchenko A. D. Osnovy sel’skokhozyaystvennoy meteorologii. T. 1 [Fundamentals of Agricultural Meteorology. Vol. 1]. Obninsk, 2011. 806 p.
- Mkrtchyan R. S., Arustamyan Sh. A. Optimum timing of winter wheat sowing in the Armenian SSR. Izd-vo s/kh nauk MSKh ArmSSR – Publ. of Agricultural Sciences of Ministry of Agriculture of Armenian SSR, 1973, no. 7, pp. 29-37. (In Russian)
- Arutyunyan A. F., Mkrtchyan R. S. Principles of assessment of the climate potential of development and specialization of viticulture in mountainous regions of Armenia. Vinogradarstvo i vinodelie. Izd-vo PF – Viticulture and Winemaking. Publ. PF, 2002, no. 1, pp. 34-37. (In Russian)
For more than 40 years estimated characteristics of rivers’ maximum runoff for rain and spring floods in Ukraine have been determined using the regulatory document SNiP 2.01.14-83. This regulatory document is based on use of reduction formulas and maximum intensity formulas .
Use of reduction structure for rain and spring floods of different reduction have no relevant grounds since in both cases we deal with calculation of maximum water discharge forming the part of unimodular hydrographs. In addition, a calculated parameter of “friendliness” is determined for spring floods by use of hydrological analogues, which, by the way, are assigned rather provi-sionally. Regarding rain floods the impact in the form of coefficients of analogy is replaced by the runoff module taken for a provisional catchment area. In methodological terms, in contrast to the “friendliness” coefficient of the spring flood determined by the method of hydrological analogy, module (for rain floods) is represented by a map of isolines. More remarks can be voiced with regard to the methodological base of determination of maximum mod-ules of rain floods runoff within small catchment areas. The main drawback relating to the use of maximum intensity formula consists in the fact that natural process of transformation of rain floods “precipitation – slope inflow – river channel runoff” is replaced by the operator of “precipitation – river channel runoff”.
The authors of this article offer a universal approach to substantiation of the structure of the formula to determine the characteristics of maximum runoff of rain and spring floods.
The original theoretical model for hydrographs of rain and spring floods is accepted as unimodular non-linear triangles.
For the first time all the components of calculation equations of modules of maximum runoff of rain and spring floods are described by the same equations and differ only in numerical values of the parameters. The proposed scientific and methodological base for determination of modules of maximum runoff of rain and spring floods underwent practical test and is recommended for use when preparing a new Ukrainian regulatory document replacing SNiP 2.01.14-83.
- Posobie po opredeleniyu raschetnykh gidrologicheskikh kharakteristik [Manual on determination of design hydrological characteristics]. Gidrometeoizdat, 1984. 447 p.
- Gopchenko E. D., Loboda N. S., Ovcharuk V. A. Hіdrolohіchnі rozrakhunkн [Hydrological calculation]. Odessa: TES Publ., 2014. 483 p.
- Gopchenko E. D., Romanchuk M. E. Normirovanie kharakteristik maksimal’nogo stoka vesennego polovod’ya na rekakh Prichernomorskoy nizmennosti [Regulation characteristics maximum flow spring floods on the rivers of the Black Sea lowland]. Kyiv: KNT, 2005. 148 p.
- Gopchenko E. D., Ovcharuk V. A. Formirovanie maksimal’nogo stoka vesennego polovod’ya v usloviyakh yuga Ukrainy [The formation of the maximum runoff for spring floods in the South of Ukraine]. Odessa:TES Publ., 2002.110 p.
- Gopchenko E. D., Gushlya O. V. Gidrologiya s osnovami melioratsyi [Hydrology with the basics of melioration]. Gidrometeoizdat, 1989. 303 p.
- Kritskiy S. N., Menkel’ M. F. Gidrologicheskie osnovy upravleniya rechnym stokom [Hydrological framework for the management of river drain]. Moscow: Publ. «Nauka», 1981. 257 p.
- Goroshkov I. F. Gidrologicheskie raschety [Hydrological calculation]. Gidrometeoizdat, 1979. 430 p.
- Sokolovskiy D. L. Rechnoy stok [River runoff]. Gidrometeoizdat, 1968. 538 p.
- Gopchenko E. D., Gar’kavenko E. O. The rationale for science-methodical base for determination of the length of slope tributary. Vіsn. Odes. derz. ekol. univ – Bul. of Odesa State Environmental University, 2015, no. 19, pp. 76-81. http://bulletin. odeku.edu.ua/category/2015/19/#post-1230 (In Ukrainian)
Introduction. Climate changes occurring in recent decades determine the relevance of the problem of forecasting such changes in future both globally and regionally. After all, knowledge of climate’s behavior in future is very important when carrying out an analysis of trends of hydrological characteristics change. Significant increase of the global surface air temperature observed since the end of the 20th century is mainly caused by increase of concentration of greenhouse gases generated as a result of industrial activity. Thus, climate changes could not but affect the continental water resources and in particular the processes taking place in rivers.
Purpose. Assessment of change of surface air layer during the winter period within the Southern Buh Basin and assessment of change of the hydrological regime of the basin’s rivers following the changes of air temperature.
Methods of research. This study is based on the data for the winter period obtained from 24 hydrological station and 15 meteorological stations within the Southern Buh River Basin. With as-sistance of scientists of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute and using the regional climate model REMO for A1B scenario forecast values of air temperature were calculated.
Results of research. The main regularities of studied characteristics change for the period of 2031-2050 were determined on the basis of prepared calculation dependences of the characteristics of ice and thermal regimes of the studied basin’s rivers and obtained forecast values of air temperature. According to the climatologists’ calculations there is a tendency of air temperature increase during the forecast period, and, respectively, increase of water temperature and decrease of ice period duration of the rivers within the Southern Buh Basin.
Summary (conclusions and author’s recommendations). The results of the carried out research indicate the fact that the trend of increase of surface air layer temperature and change of main characteristics of ice and thermal regimes of the basin’s rivers formed at the end of 20th – the beginning of the 21th century will develop in future.
- Shostakovich V. B. About breakdown and freezing of rivers. Meteorologicheskiy vestnik ‒ Meteorological Bulletin, 1903, vol. XIII, pp. 13-18. (In Russian)
- Panov B. P. Zimniy rezhim rek SSSR [Winter regime of the rivers of the USSR]. Leningrad: LSU Publ., 1960. 240 p.
- Donchenko R. V. Ledovyy rezhim rek SSSR [Ice regime of the rivers of the USSR]. Leningrsd: Gidrometizdat, 1987. 247 p.
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forecasts of ice phenomena on the rivers]. Leningrad: Gidrometizdat, 1978. 132 p. - Bydin F. I. Zimniy rezhim rek i metody ego izucheniya. Issledovaniya rek SSSR [Winter regime of rivers and
methods of studying it. Research rivers of the USSR]. Leningrsd: SHI Publ., 1933. Issue 5. 237 p. - Rossinskiy K.I. Termicheskiy rezhim vodohranilisch [Thermal regime of reservoirs]. M.: Nauka, 1975. – 165 s.
- Ryimsha V.A. Ledovyie issledovaniya na rekah i vodohranilischah [Ice studies on rivers and reservoirs].
L.Gidrometizdat, 1959. – 190s. - Ginzburg B. M., Soldatova I. I. Long-term variability of the terms of ice phenomena on the rivers as an indicator of the fluctuations of the transitional seasons climate. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya ‒Meteorology and Hydrology, 1997, no. 11, pp. 99-107. (In Russian)
- Strutyns’ka V. M., Hrebin’ V. V. Termichnyy ta l’odovyy rezhym richok baseynu Dnipra z druhoyi polovyny XX stolittya [Thermal and ice regime of the rivers of the Dnipro basin since the second half of the twentieth
century]. Kyiv: Nika-Tsentr, 2010. 196 p. - Rakhmatullina E. R., Hrebin’ V. V. Estimation of the modern ice regime of the basin of the Southern Bug River. Hidrolohiya, hidrokhimiya i hidroekolohiya ‒ Hydrology, hydrochemistry and hydroecology, 2010, vol. 3 (20), pp. 89-95. (In Ukrainian)
- Horbachova L. O. Long-term dynamics of ice phenomena in the basin of the Southern Bug River. Hidrolohiya, hidrokhimiya i hidroekolohiya ‒ Hydrology, hydrochemistry and hydroecology, 2013, vol. 3 (30), pp. 21-27. (In Ukrainian)
- Loboda N. S., Sirenko A. M. The impact of global warming on the ice regime of the river Dniester. Naukovyy visnyk Chernivets’koho universyt ‒ The Chernovetsk University Scientific Bulletin, 2009, issue 480-481, pp. 200-203. (In Ukrainian)
- Marynych O. M. Shyshchenko P. H. Fizychna heohrafiya Ukrayiny [Physical geography of Ukraine]. Kyiv: Tov-vo «Znannya», 2006. 511 p.
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Ukraine. Heohrafichni doslidzhennya na Ukrayini [Geographic research in Ukraine]. Kyiv: Publ. «Naukova
dumka», 1969, issue 1, pp. 157-172. (In Ukrainian) - Krakovskaya S. V., Palamarchuk L. V., Dyukel’ G. A. Regional model (REMO) in the study of severe
precipitation in the Carpathians. Meteorolohiya, klimatolohiya ta hidrolohiya ‒ Meteorology, climatology
and Hydrology, no. 50, 2008, pp. 75-80. (In Russian) - Rakhmatullina E. R., Hrebin V. V. Analysis of the correlation of the characteristics of thermal and ice regime
of the rivers of the Southern Buh River Basin with air temperature. Hidrolohiya, hidrokhimiya i hidroekolohiya ‒ Hydrology, hydrochemistry and hydroecology, 2017, vol. 2 (45), pp. 44-53.
Underwater bucket channels connecting the Danube with sluices were built perpendicular to river’s main stream. Water supply tract consists of an supply bucket channel, connecting the Danube with a sluice facility, a transporting channel – from a sluice to the mouth, i.e. to an output of a channel into a lake, and a mouth section of a channel. Throughout the whole period of operation of these facilities silt accumulation has been observed within supply bucket channels, in a lesser degree – within transport channels, and emergence in a mouth section of transport channels of sandbars having considerable dimensions. Throughout the whole period of operation of facilities and channels plenty of money has been spent for cleaning facilities and channels off sediments, so there is a need for deeper examination of the nature of silting phenomenon and minimization of water supply tract siltation through its simple reconstruction.
The aim of this research consists in substantiation of proposals to eliminate or to reduce effects of silting of supply and transport channels under existing conditions and substantiation of proposed necessary structural measures on the basis of proposed mathematical modelling and methods of analytical studies. Therefore methods of analytical studies including probable and statistical approaches used when analyzing processes with constant change of environment were proposed. These studies found that boundaries of supply of inlet channels in an open river’s channel depend on distribution of flow velocities throughout a river’s stream and conditions of stream distribution and flow pattern in the middle of the supply channel depends on shape of an inlet, particularly on shape of its lower side.
These suggestions and studies give us an opportunity to recommend means of controlling a hydraulic regime in the middle of a supply channel. Fighting against deposition of bottom sediments at supply channels may be won after choosing a place for water intake and a type of bucket, as well as after specification of appropriate structural forms and sizes of their inlet components. Therefore the article provides suggestions on research of regime of interaction between the river and a supply channel, dynamics of water exchange in supply channels, forces of
stream masses developing during mixing, hydraulic regime and regime of deposition of supply and transport channels in order to determine the major requirements regarding size of water area of a supply channel.
- Chou V. T. Gidravlika otkrytykh rusel [Hydraulics of open channels]. Gosenergoizdat, 1976. 398 p.
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- Zegzhda A. P. Osnovnye polozheniya metodiki rascheta razmerov otstoynika i vremeni ego zaileniya [Summary of methods for calculating the size of the sump and the time of its silting]. Gosenergoizdat, 1969. 59 p.
- Belokon P. N. Vodopriemnye kovshi [Rainwater buckets]. Gosenergoizdat, 1968. 159 p.
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irrigation]. ONTI, 1957. 374 p. - Obrazovskiy A. S., Moskvin E. P., Bondar F. I. Hydraulic mode of water reception ladles. Trudy VNII VodGeo – Proc. AUSRI VodGeo, 1978, Ch. I, II, 178 p. (In Russian).
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Assessments of changes in the intra-annual spatio-temporal variability of the hydrological characteristics of the Kuialnytskyi Lyman lagoon under various runoff volumes of the Velykyi Kuialnyk River were obtained from the results of calculations, using the predictive three dimensional hydrothermodynamic model Delft3D-FLOW.
Scenarios of increasing the river runoff inflow up to 25% and 75% of the monthly natural river runoff under conditions of 2015 were modelled, as well as under different by hydraulicity typical years of the modern climatic period of the 21st century (1990-2030), determined according to the most appropriate for the Kuialnytskyi Lyman lagoon region climatic scenario from the ENSEMBLES database, which corresponds to the global A1B scenario, calculated by the MPI-REMO model. Monthly values of the natural runoff of the Velykyi Kuialnyk River, calculated with the use of “climate-runoff” model, were used during the simulation.
Implementation of water management within the catchment area of the Velykyi Kuialnyk River and realization of various engineering and technical measures aimed at the increase of river inflow to the Kuialnytskyi Lyman lagoon, are identified to significantly affect the hydroecological regime of the lagoon only in case of supplying at least 75% of the natural river runoff volume into the lagoon.
The increase of the natural runoff of the Velykyi Kuialnyk River is incapable to provide the stabilization of the hydroecological regime of the Kuialnytskyi Lyman lagoon independently, without periodical replenishment of the lagoon with seawater from the Odessa Gulf.
Under the absence of replenishment of the lagoon with sea water and deficiency in the runoff of other small water streams flowing into the lagoon, the increase of the runoff of the Velykyi Kuialnyk River even up to 75% of the volume of its natural runoff could provide the stabilization of the annual cycle of water level and salinity variability in the lagoon only during the high-water years.
- Loboda N. S., Gopchenko E. D. (Eds). Vodnyy rezhym ta hidroekolohichni kharakterystyky Kuyal’nyts’koho lymanu [Water regime and hydroecological characteristics of Kuyalnitskyi Liman]. OSENU. Odessa: TES, 2016. 332 p.
- Deltares, 2016. Delft3D 4.01 Suite. Available through: Delft3D Open Source Community <http://oss.deltares.nl/web/delft3d/ >. [Accessed 17 Febru-ary 2016].
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- Tuchkovenko Yu. S., Kushnir D. V. Results of the numeri-cal modelling of the annual variability of characteristics of the hydrological regime of the Kuialnytskyi Lyman La-goon. Ukr. gìdrometeorol. ž. – Ukr. hydrometeor. J., 2016, no. 17, pp. 137-148. Available through: <http://uhmj.odeku.edu.ua/en/category/ 2016-en/17-en>. (In Ukrainian )
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The article analyzes the changes that took place in the higher school of Ukraine over the past 25 years in terms of their impact on the system of training specialists with higher education in hydrometeorological specialties. Three stages of the higher education reforms and their impact on the training of personnel for the hydrometeorological service of Ukraine are singled out. The priority measures are proposed, which will enable the operational departments of the hydrometeorological service to be provided by specialists who meet the modern requirements of
the World Meteorological Organization.
- The Law of Ukraine “On Education”. Vіdomostі Verkhovnoyi Rady URSR (VVR) [The Verkhovna Rada of the USSR News], 1991, no 34, art. 451. http://zakon2.rada.gov.ua/laws/main/1060-12. (In Ukrainian)
- The Law of Ukraine “On Higher Education”. Vіdomostі Verkhovnoyi Rady URSR (VVR) [The Verkhovna Rada of the USSR News], 2002, no. 20, art. 134. http://zakon2.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2984-14. (In Ukrainian)
- The Law of Ukraine “On Higher Education”. Vіdomostі Verkhovnoyi Rady URSR (VVR) [The Verkhovna Rada of the USSR News], 2014, no. 37-38, art. 2004. http://zakon2.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1556-18. (In Ukrainian)
- Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine “On Approval of the List of Fields of Knowledge and Specialties under which Higher Education Institutions are Prepared”, 29.04.2015, no. 266. http://zakon2.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/266-2015- п. (In Ukrainian)
- Guiding Principles of Education and Training in the Field of Meteorology and Operative Hydrophysics. Vol. 1. Meteorology. WMO‒no. 258, 2003. (In Russian)
- Guiding Principles of Education and Training in the Field of Meteorology and Operative Hydrophysics. Vol. 2. Hydrology. WMO‒no. 258, 2007. (In Russian)
- Guidance on the application of standards for education and training in meteorology and hydrology. Vol. 1. Meteorology. WMO‒no. 1083, 2015. (In Russian)
- The Law of Ukraine ” About hydrometeorological activity”. Vіdomostі Verkhovnoyi Rady URSR (VVR) [The Verkhovna Rada of the USSR News], 1999, no. 16, art. 95. http://zakon2.rada.gov.ua/ laws/main/443-14. (In Ukrainian)
- Technical regulations. Collection of main documents, no. 2. Vol. I. General meteorological standards and recommended practice. WMO‒no. 49, 2015. (In Russian)
- Guidelines for the Education and Training of Personnel in the Field of Meteorology and Operational Hydrology. Supplement 1. Requirements for training and qualification of aeronautical meteorological personnel. WMO‒no. 258, 2006. (In Russian)
- Manual on Aeronautical Meteorology. International Civil Aviation Organization. Doc 8896 ICAO, 2011. ICAO, 2012. (In Russian)
- Del Carpio, Ximena, Olga Kupets, Noel Muller, Anna Olefir. Skills for a modern Ukraine. Overview booklet.
World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017. - The rules of meteorological aviation security. Joint order of the State Service of Ukraine for overseeing the safety of aviation, the Ministry of Environmental Protection of Ukraine and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine from 14.11.2005, no. 851/409/661. (In Ukrainian)
- Requirements for the preparation of aviation meteorological personnel. Order of the State Committee for Hydrometeorology from 28.10.2010, no. 60. (In Ukrainian)
- Methodical recommendations for assessing the competence of aviation meteorological personnel. Order of the State Service of Ukraine for Emergencies from 05.12.2014, no. 680. (In Ukrainian)
- Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine «On the approval of the Procedure for the development and approval of professional standards» from 31.05.2015, no. 373. http://zakon2.rada.gov.ua/ laws/show/373-2017-п. (In Ukrainian)
- Stepanenko S. M. About the transformation of the system of correspondence education in terms of integration into the European educational space. Vyshcha shkola ‒ Higher school, 2007, pp. 31-37. (In Ukrainian)
- Guide to the Management and Operation of WMO Regional Training Centres and Other Training Institutions. WMOno. 1169, 2017.
In the paper the review of the meteorological research in Ukraine at the end of the 20-th century – the beginning of the 21-th century was made. Researches in the field of meteorology are performed mainly by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Service of Emergencies of Ukraine and National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Odessa State Environmental University (OSENU) and Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
(TSNUK).
The studies of UkrHMI scientific schools headed by well-known scientists in the field of meteorology were devoted to the development of new theories, methods, models in the field of the weather forecasting and dangerous situations in Ukraine, radiation balance, agrometeorology, climate researches in the Ukraine, numerical modeling of cloud physics and active effects on clouds, numerical methods in analysis and forecast of natural and technogenic processes in the atmosphere.
In OSENU, where two scientific schools are established, the scientists study the formation of severe weather and its forecast, diagnose and forecast mesoscale atmospheric circulations, identify nonlinear interaction between the main global structures, detect the features of circulation processes in high latitudes of the southern hemisphere, conduct systematic studies in the field of numerical modelling of physics and dynamics of atmospheric processes with the Enviro-HIRLAM and HARMONIE models.
Scientists of TSNUK study changes in the total column ozone amount in the atmosphere of Antarctic Region and the mid-latitudes of Northern Hemisphere. The work on analyzing the state of climatic parameters and changing the current climate of Ukraine is being carried out at the KNU.
- Ivus G. P. Umovy utvorennya ta prohnozu slabkoho vitru bilya poverkhni zemli ta inversii temperatury v rayoni Odesy [Terms formation and forecast a weak surface wind and temperature inversions near Odessa]. Kyiv: SMC on Hydrometeorology in Ministry of Education of Ukraine, 1998. 112 p.
- Ivus G. P. Spetsializovani prohnozy pohody [Specialized weather forecast]. Odessa: TES Publ., 2012. 407 p.
- Ivus G. P., Efimov V. A. Fizika antitsiklogeneza [Physics of Anticycogenesis]. Kyiv: KNT, 2005. 208 p.
- Ivanov S. V., Ivus G. P., Palamarchuk Yu. O. Numerical modeling of a convective cell behind a cold front: heat and moisture flows. Ukr. gìdrometeorol. ž. – Ukr. hydrometeor. j., 2010, no. 6, pp. 120–129. (In Russian)
- Ivanov S. V., Ivus G. P., Pyshnyak D. V. Numerical modeling mesoscale features atmosphere in a cold front area. Meteorologiya, klimatologiya i gidrologiya – Meteorology, Climatology and Hydrology, 2010, issue 51, pp. 4-14. (In Russian)
- Grushevsky O., Ivus G. , Ivanov S. Upon the role of Kelvin waves in formation of blocking events over the Easten Europe. European Geosciencs Union, General Assembly. Vienna, Austria, 2007, vol. 9, p. 05902.
- Ivus G. P., Zubkovych S. O., Khomenko G. V., Kovalkov I. A. Conditions of formation of dangerous wind zones on the territory of Ukraine. European Applied Science, Europaische Fachhochs schule, 2014, ed. 10, pp. 59-64.
- Ivus G. P., Zubkovych S. O., Agayar E. V, Gurskaya L. M. To the question about typification of synoptic proceses over territory of Ukraine. International Jornal of Research in Earth and Enviromental Sciences, 2015, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 21–27.
- Ivus G. P., Semergey-Chumachenko A. B., Agayar E. V., Dmitrenko A. P. The influence of heat advection on the formation of low level jets. Ukr. gìdrometeorol. ž. – Ukr. hydrometeor. j., 2011, no. 9, pp. 66–72. (In Russian)
- Ivus G. P., Efimov V. A., Mishchenko N. M. The results of modeling the interaction of tectonic processes with atmospheric. Meteorologiya, klimatologiya i gidrologiya – Meteorology, Climatology and Hydrology, 2008, issue 50, pp. 58-63. (In Russian)
- Іvus G. P., Semenova I. G., Koval’kov I. A. The role of hydrodynamic instability of the atmosphere in the processes of cut off cyclogenesis in summer over Ukraine. Vìsn. Odes. deržekol. Unìv. – Bull. of OSENU, 2013, vol. 16, pp. 60-66. (In Ukrainian)
- Ivus G. P., Kivganov A. F., Timofeev V. E. Struynyye techeniya nizhnikh urovney atmosfery [Jet streams of the boundary layer of the atmosphere]. Kyiv: EMC HE, 1991. 49 p.
- Semenova I. G. Spatial-temporal distribution of droughts in Ukraine in the context of future climate change. Fizychna heohrafiya ta heomorfolohiya – Fisical Geografy and Geomorfology, 2015, issue 01 (77), pp. 144-151. (In Ukrainian)
- Voloshin V. G. Dinamicheskaya model zagryazneniya atmosfery s meteorologicheskim preprotsessorom [Dynamic model of atmospheric pollution with meteorological preprocessor]. Odessa: Ekologiya, 2013. 296 p.
- Stepanenko S. M. Dynamika ta modelyuvannya klimatu [Dinamics and climate modelling]. Odessa, 2013. 203 p.
- Klimatychni zminy ta yikh vplyv na sfery ekonomiky Ukrayiny [Climate change and their impact on the spheres of economy of Ukraine]. Odessa: TES, 2015. 520 p. (Eds: S. M. Stepanenko, A. M. Polevoy).
- Kivhanov A. F., Khomenko G. V., Khokhlov V. M., Bondarenko V. M. Hidrodynamichni modeli prohnozu pohody i sitkovi metody yikh realizatsiyi [Hydrodynamic models of weather forecasting and network methods of their realization]. Odessa: TES, 2002. 179 p.
- Khomenko G. V., Khokhlov V. M. Hidrodynamichni metody prohnozu pohody [Hydrodynamic weather forecasting methods]. Odessa: Ekolohiya, 2008. 338 p.
- Khomenko G. V., Khokhlov V. M., Bondarenko V. M. Praktykum z hidrodynamichnykh metodiv prohnozu pohody [Workshop on hydrodynamic methods of weather forecast]. Odessa: TES, 2002. 206 p.
- Goncharova L. D. Vozdushnyye techeniya troposfery i stratosfery severnogo polushariya [Air currents of the troposphere and stratosphere of the northern hemisphere]. Odessa: TES, 2014. 297 p.
- Shkol’nyy Ye. P., Loyeva I. D., Honcharova L. D. Obrobka ta analiz hidrometeorolohichnoyi informatsiyi [Processing and analysis of hydrometeorological information]. Odessa, 1999. 600 p.
- Groisman P. Ya., Ivanov S. V. Regional aspects of climateterrestrial-hydrologic interactions in non-boreal Eastern Europe. Springer, 2009. 376 p.
- Burman E. A. Mestnyye vetry [Local winds]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1969. 343 p.
- Borisova S. V. Mezomasshtabnyye tsirkulyatsii v gorakh [Mesoscale circulation in the mountains]. Odessa: Ekologiya, 2013. 222 p.
- Babichenko V. M. Stykhіynі meteorolohіchnі yavyshcha na terytorіyi Ukrainy za ostannye dvadtsyatyrіchchya (1986-2005) [Elemental meteorological phenomena on the territory of Ukraine during the last twenty years (1986-2005)]. UkrSRHMI; State Hydrometeorological Service. Kyiv: Nika-Center, 2006. 312 p.
- Buikov M. V. Kinetics of distillation in a polidisperse fog. Izv Acad Sci USSR, Ser. Geophys, 1961, vol. 7, pp. 1058-1065 (published by the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society).
- Pirnach G. M. Chysel’ne modelyuvannya khmar ta opadіv u systemakh atmosfernykh frontіv [Numerical simulation of clouds and precipitation in systems of atmospheric fronts]. UkrSRHMI. Kyiv: Nika-Center, 2008, 295 p.
- Bakhanov V. P. Physics of clouds and active impacts. Report on the works for 1987-1990, submitted to the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics for the 20th Assembly of the International Geophysical and Geo-Discipline Union. Moscow: Interdepartmental Geophysical Committee of
the USSR Academy of Sciences, 1991, pp. 5-25. (In Russian) - Leskov B. N. Technological aspects of productions increase in winter rainfall. Tr. UkrNIGMI – Scientific works of UkrSRHMI, 1991, issue 242, pp. 3-17. (In Russian)
- Voloschuk V. M., Prusov V. A., Budak I. V., Shpig V. M., Krivobok O. A., Skrynyk O. Ya. The system of operative response to accidental emissions of harmful impurities into the atmosphere. Tr. UkrNIGMI – Scientific works of UkrSRHMI, 2015, issue 267, pp. 3-8. (In Ukrainian)
- Prusov V. A., Doroshenko A. Y. Hydrodynamic Modeling of Industrial Pollutants Spreading in Atmosphere. Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling, 2016, pp 87-116. (Eds: András Bátkai, Petra Csomós, István Faragó, András Horányi, Gabriella Szépszó).
- Martasinova V. F, Timofeev V. E. The role of atmospheric circulation in climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula. Global’nye i regional’nye izmeneniya klimata [Global and regional climate change]. Kiev, Nika-Center, 2011, pp. 267-279. (In Russian)
- Martazinova V. F. The metod of the floating analog, twomonth quasi-periodicity of the atmospheric processes and longrange weather forecasting. APEC Seminar Reports, 2006. http://www.apcc21.net/common/ download.php?filename=sem/CLIMATe%20CHANGE.
- Martasinova V. F. The method of a floating analog and a twostage quasiperiodicity of atmospheric processes in long-term forecasting. Sb. Problemy i dostizheniya dolgosrochnogo meteorologicheskogo prognozirovaniya [Coll. works Problems and achievement of long-term meteorological forecasting]. Kiev:
Nika-Center. 2012. (In Russian) - Shpyg V., Budak I., Pishniak D., Poperechnyi P. The Application of Regional NWP Models to Operational Weather Forecasting in Ukraine. CAS Technical Conference (TECO) on “Responding to the Environmental Stressors of the 21st Century” : 18-19 November 2013 : Conf. Materials. Antalya, 2013. http://www.wmo.int/pages/ prog/arep/ cas /documents/Ukraine-NWPModels.pdf 36. Shpyg V., Budak I. WRF reflectivity simulation and verification of thunderstorm forecast by radar and surface observation.
16th International Radar Symposium : 24-26 June 2015 : Symposium Materials. Dresden, 2015, pp. 610-615. DOI:10.1109/IRS.2015.7226388. - Martazinova V. F., Ivanova E. K. Classification of synoptic processes by the method of fields of standards and its application in long-term weather forecast. Trudy nauchnogo seminara «Problemy i dostizheniya dolgosrochnogo meteorologicheskogo prognozirovaniya», 5-7 oktyabrya 2011 [Proc. of the scientific
seminar “Problems and achievement of long-term meteorological forecasting”, October 5-7, 2011]. Kiev, Nika -Centre, 2011. pp. 40-46. (In Russian) - Balabukh V. A, et al. An integrated information system on spontaneous meteorological phenomena and processes that determine them. Global’nye i regional’nye izmeneniya klimata [Global and regional climate change]. Kiev: Nika-Center, 2011. p. 147-154. (In Russian)
- Krivobok O. A., Krivoshein A. O. New technical and technological possibilities of monitoring for especially dangerous phenomena of the weather. Pershyy Vseukrains’kyy hіdrometeorolohіchnyy z’izd: 22-23 bereznya 2017 r., m. Odesa, Ukraina [First All-Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Congress: March 22-23, 2017, Odessa, Ukraine]. Odessa: TPP, 2017, pp. 258-260. (In Russian)
- Khotyaintsev V. M., Bardakov R. V., Krakovska S. V., Spyg V. M. Evolution of a mixed cloud: growth of ice particles. Tr. UkrNIGMI – Scientific works of UkrSRHMI, 2016, issue 268, pp. 3-15. (In Ukrainian)
The article analyzes the current state of climatology in Ukraine, the problems and prospects for its development. It is shown that although Ukraine the signed the Paris Agreement and this fact is very important for the development of modern climatology, Ukraine’s state policy on climate change has a fragmented character and is currently considered exclusively as a component of environmental policy. The lack of systems approach to the problem of climate change makes it impossible to make management decisions on actions for climate change adaptation and mitigation at the scale of whole economy of Ukraine. At the same time, the new tasks, which are due to the expediency of ratification by Ukraine of the Paris Agreement and the further implementation of its provisions,
require the development of a coherent and consistent state policy on climate change.
The main scientific directions of the development of climate services in Ukraine are presented in accordance with the Global Framework for Climate Services. The main tasks for each element of climate services – a platform for interaction with users, an information system for climate services, observing and monitoring systems, capacity development – are outlined for Ukraine, problems are indicated and prospective directions of development are proposed.
- The Global Risks.Report 2017. World Economic Forum, Geneva. 2017. 78 р. World Economic Forum.
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GRR17_Report_web.pdf - Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of December 7, 2016 No. 932-r “About approval of the Concept of sale of state policy in the sphere of climate change for the period till 2030”. Government portal.
http://www.kmu.gov.ua/control/uk/ cardnpd?docid=249573705 (In Ukrainian). - Climate knowledge for action: a global framework for climate services – Empowering the most vulnerable. World Meteorological Organization, 2011, no. 1065. 293 p. http://www.uncclearn.org/sites/default/files/inventory/wmo01_5_0.pdf (In Russian)
- Implementation Plan for the Global Framework for Climate Services. World Meteorological Organization, 2014. 96 p. https://www.wmo.int/gfcs/sites/default/files/implementationplan//GFCS-IMPLEMENTATION-PLAN-4211_ru.pdf (In Russian)
- Strategic framework for adaptation to climate change in the Dniester River Basin. UNECE, 2015. 72 p.
https://ehlm.unece.org/pages/viewpage.action?pageId=22741054 (In Russian) - Implementation plan: Strategic framework for adaptation to climate change in the Dniester basin. Zoï Environment Network, 2017. 76 p. http://www.zoinet.org/web/sites/default/files/publications/Dniester-web.pdf. (In Russian).
- Shtyasnyy P., Lapin M., Balabukh V. Adaptatsiya do zminy klimatu [Adapting to climate change]. Carpathian Institute of Development; Agency for the Promotion of the Sustainable Development of the Carpathian Region “FORZA”. 2015. 88 p. http://www.forza.org.ua/sites/default/files/global_climate_changes_training_manual_ua_screen_final.pdf
- Kyyivs’ka mis’ka stratehiya. Poperedzhennya ta adaptatsiya do zminy klimatu: proekt. [Kiev city strategy. Preventing and adaptation to climate change: project]. The Taras Shevchenko university of Kyiv. 2013.188 p.
- Balabukh V. O., Zhyla S. M., Orlov O. O., Yaremchenko O. A Vrazlyvi ekosystemy Polis’koho pryrodnohozapovidnyka ta yoho okolyts’ v umovakh hlobal’noho poteplinnya: problemy ta shlyakhy vyrishennya [Vulnerable ecosystems Polissya Nature Reserve and its surroundings in terms of global warming: Problems and ways of solution]. Kyiv: Publ. TOV «NVP Interservis», 2013. 92 p.
- Otsinka vplyvu klimatychnykh zmin na haluzi ekonomiky Ukrayiny [Estimation of climate change impact on Ukrainian economy]. Odessa: Ekolohiya, 2011. 694 p. (Eds: S. M. Stepanenko, A. M. Polevoy).
- Klimatychni zminy ta yikh vplyv na sfery ekonomiky Ukrayiny [Climate change and its impact on Ukrainian economy]. Odessa: Publ “TES”, 2015. 518 p. (Eds: S. M. Stepanenko, A. M. Polevoy).
- Coastal Lagoons in Europe. Integrated Water Resource Management. London: IWA Publishing, 2015. 227p.
(Eds: Ana I. Lillebø, Per Stålnacke, Geoffrey D. Gooch).
Study of the El Niño-La Niña is a major challenge for the scientific community. In addition to the impact on weather and climate in different regions of the Earth, this phenomenon is associated with the socio-economic impact for many countries. The task of such a large-scale phenomenon prognosis is associated with considerable difficulties, one of the main problems is the infrequency of its occurrence and changes in the characteristics between the events. Therefore, a comprehensive study of its urgent task for the international scientific community.
This paper presents the results of a study of the statistical structure of the fields of geopotential heights of 850 hPa pressure level in the western sector of the Southern hemisphere. The study was conducted using a component analysis. Decomposition fields of principal components in different scales are shown. Filtered field anomalies suggest tendencies of formation of the zonal Walker’ cells, characteristic for the warm period of El Niño, La Niña, when the structure of the Walker’ cell is less pronounced. Tendencies offset to the east of the Pacific high in the Southern Hemisphere to split it into two parts, as can be seen from the fields of geopotential height anomalies. The zonal circulation Walker’ cell in the warm and cold phases of ENSO is clearly appeared in the fields of geopotential heights, when is highlight the part caused by the second principal components.
- Bondarenko A. L., Zhmur V. V. Fizicheskie problemy ekologii (ekologicheskaya fizika) – Physical problems of ecology (Environmental Physics). Moscow: MAKS PRESS; The M. V. Lomonosov MSU, Physics faculty,
2005, no. 13, pp. 35–44. (In Russian) - Penland C. A stochastic model of Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Physica D, 1996, vol. 98, pp. 534–558.
- Byshev V. I., Neyman V. I., Byshev V. G., Romanov Yu. A., Serykh I. V. Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa – Modern problems of remote sensing of the Earth from space, 2011, no. 4, pp. 200–208. (In Russian)
- Gushchina D. Yu., Devitt B., Petrosyants M. A. Izvestiya Rossiyskoy akademii nauk. Fizika atmosfery i okeana – Russian Academy of Sciences. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2000, no. 5, pp. 581–604. (In Russian)
- Gushchina D. Yu., Petrosyants M. A. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya – Meteorology and climatology, 1998, no. 12, pp. 5–15. (In Russian)
- Gushchina D. Yu., Petrosyants M. A., Semenov E. K. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya – Meteorology and climatology, 1997, no. 2, pp. 14–27. (In Russian)
- Huang B., Schopf S., Shukla J. Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. CLIVAR Exchanges, 2002, vol. 7 (no. 3/4), pp. 24–27.
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- Bondarenko A. L., Zhmur V. V. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya – Meteorology and climatology, 2004, no. 11,
pp. 39–52. (In Russian) - Lau N.-C. Modeling the seasonal dependence of the atmospheric response to observed El Ninos in 1962-76.
Mon.Wea.Rev., 1985, vol. 113, pp. 1970-1996. - McWilliams J., Gent P. A coupled air-sea model for the tropical Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 1978, vol. 35, pp. 962–989.
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The article describes the methods of making short-term weather forecasts and storm warnings in the Hydrometeorological Department of the Republic of Belarus using different sources of information (monitoring of synoptic situation, use of various satellite information, radar data etc.). It presents information about an observation network operating in the country (upper-air and surface observations). It also indicates the aims and results of the BALTRAD project resulting in creation of a modern, real-time meteorological radar network which connects the Republic of Belarus and the countries of Baltic region.
The article contains short information about use of numerical weather forecasting models, in particular, the mesoscale model WRF-ARW which runs on the cluster system available in the Hydrometeorological Department. The GFS model data (0.25° increment) are used as a source of input data for modelling. Once launched the WRF model generates a forecast with advance time of 48 hours while time resolution of output data is equal to 1 hour. Calculation is performed as per “nested grids” with two domains having spatial resolution of 15 and 3 km which provides detailed information and enables making forecasts of local phenomena.
Special attention is paid to products of the department of meteorological forecasts, especially to the hydrometeorological bulletin for the President with its structure being specified. The risk gradations are shown and characterized with allocation of colour codes based thereon in order to introduce respective forecast meteorological products: the weather is not dangerous (“green”); the weather is potentially dangerous (“yellow”); the weather is dangerous (“orange”); the weather is very dangerous (“red”).
The article specifies current problems arising during conduction of hydrometeorological activities and the ways they can be solved as indicated in the Strategy for Development of Hydrometeorological and Environmental Monitoring Activities in the Republic of Belarus until 2030.
- Determination of the set of verification parameters for the work version of the program-methodical complex of mesoprognosing of atmospheric processes. Resp. executor I. A. Dementsova. Minsk, 2014. 87 p. № GR 20130940. (In Russian)
- Lapo P. O., Shakur V. N., Prakharenia М. Trudy Gidromettsentra Rossii – Proceedings of Hydrometcentre of Russia, 2015, vol. 358, pp. 67–77. (In Russian)
- TKP 17.10-06-2008 (02120). Okhrana okruzhayushchey sredy i prirodopol’zovaniye. Gidrometeorologiya. Pravila sostavleniya kratkosrochnykh prognozov pogody obshchego naznacheniya [Environmental protection and nature management. Hydrometeorology. Rules for composing of short-term general weather forecasts]. Minsk, 2008. 34 p.
- Strategiya razvitiya gidrometeorologicheskoy deyatel’nosti i deyatel’nosti v oblasti monitoringa okruzhayushchey sredy Respubliki Belarus’ na period do 2030 goda [The development strategy of the hydrometeorological activity and activity in the field of environmental monitoring of the Republic
of Belarus until 2030] URL: http://hmc.by/category/rhmc/norm
In the article you can read about the methods used for forecasting convective processes by means of output products of numerical models with various spatial resolution. It presents the methods for forecasting convective phenomena applied in the Hydrometeorological Centre of the Republic of Belarus. The state of the atmosphere affected by intensive convection over the territory of the Republic of Belarus on July 13, 2016 is analyzed. The categorial evaluation of the thunderstorm forecasting methods by G.D. Reshetov and I.A. Slavin is specified with the respective results presented. The article analyzes the forecast of convective phenomena conducted with the help of the non-hydrostatic regional model WRF-ARW.
Use of convective instability indices and calculation methods can facilitate convective phenomena forecasting. The advantage of their use consists in possibility of their application within the areas not covered by aerological sounding. However, selection of indicators of instability and methods of thunderstorm and other dangerous phenomena forecasting depends on features of an area under study and this requires further research.
To ensure more accurate convective phenomena forecasting it is necessary to consider radar, satellite and aerological observations when conducting numerical model calculations. The results of the research showed that convective phenomena forecasting requires use of models with a high spatial resolution.
- Lapo Palina,Yaroslava Sokolovskaya, Svetashev Alexander, Krasouski Alexander, Barodka Siarhei, Leonid Turishev, Siarhei Barodka. Summertime Thunderstorms Prediction in Belarus. European Geoscience Union General Assembly 2015, held 14-17 April, 2015, EGU2015-14170.
- Reshetov G. D. Forecast of day and night thunderstorms. Trudy GMTs SSSR – Proceedings of the State Medical Cen-ter of the USSR, 1977, vol. 176, p. 86. (In Russian)
- Zverev А. S. Sinopticheskaya meteorologiya [The Synoptic meteorology]. Leningrad: Gidrometizdat, 1977. 711 p.
- Bokatkin О. G., Tarakanov G. G. Osnovy meteorologii [The Fundamentals of meteorology]. St. Petersberg: RSHMU, 2007. 232 p.
- Matveev L. T. Kurs obshchey meteorologii. Fizika atmos-fery [The general meteorology course. The physics of the atmosphere]. Leningrad: Gidrometizdat, 1984. 300 p.
- Khromov S. P., Mamontova L. I. Meteorologicheskiy slovar’ [Meteorological dictionary]. Leningrad: Hydrometizdat, 1974. 568 p. (Ed.: V. I. Kuzmenko).
- Recommendations for the Verification and Intercomparison of QPFs and PQPFs from Operational NWP Models. WMO/TD-No.1485 (WWRP 2009-1).
- GD 52.27.284–91. Methodological recommendation. Con-ducting operational (operational) tests of new and improved methods of hydrometeorological and heliographic forecasts. Moscow, 1991. 150 p. (In Russian).
- The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research. Forecast Verification Issues, Methods and FAQ. URL: http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/ (accessed 25 January 2017)
Amid political and, consequently, economic and environmental problems engulfing Ukraine one of the today’s challenges consists in studying the possibility of use of natural potential of renewable energy sources. Resources of solar radiation have no negative impact on the natural environment and human activity. Therefore development of helioenergetics and at the same time climatic substantiation of solar power plants use research become more and more important. The purpose of this article is to evaluate of the solar radiation potential opportunities for implementation of technical innovations within the territory of Ukraine and to identify prospects of helioenergetics development. Special indicators of solar radiation components for 1961-1990 s are showed. Using the method of mathematical statistics we defined a value of direct solar radiation contribution forming a part of the total radiation for the warm season (April-September). During the period of 1991-2015 an increase of solar radiation climatic resources relative to climatological standard norm of 1961-1990 was revealed. Over 2001-2015 annual direct and total solar radiation values increased even more in comparison to 1991-2000. Increase of duration of sunshine was also observed. Due to changes of radiation characteristics special indicators of solar
for 1991-2015 were specified. The prospects of solar radiation use in helioenergetics proved their feasibility in Crimea, steppe zone, eastern part of forest-steppe zone and even in some parts of Polissya. Comparing to previous years, in terms of sunshine duration over 2000 hours per annum the territory expanded northward. Restrictions on innovations implementation apply to western forest-steppe zone and mountainous areas of Ukrainian Carpathians. Increase of solar radiation regime components determining the feasibility of solar power energy resources form the basis for their countrywide use.
- Abakumova G. M., Gorbarenko Ye. V., Nezval Ye. I., Shilovtseva O. A. Klimaticheskie resursy solnechnoy energii Moskovskogo regiona [Climatic resources of solar energy in the Moscow region]. Moscow: Knizhny dom LIBROKOM, 2012. 312 р.
- Atlas of the energy potential of renewable and alternative energy sources. Kiev: Institute of renewable energy of NASU, 2005. 44 р. (In Ukrainian)
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V. V. Stadnik). (In Russian) - Berliand T. G., Stadnik V. V. Climatic studies of radiation and heat Earth balance. Sovremennye issledovaniya Glavnoy geofizicheskoy observatorii [Modern research Main Geophysical Observatory]. St. Petersburg, 2001, Vol. 2, рр. 273-296. (In Russian)
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Conference “Energy efficiency-2005” city Odessa] October 14, 2005]. Odesa, 2005, р. 22-28. (In Ukrainian) - Climate cadastre Ukraine: 6 parts. Part 1: Solar radiation and sunshine. Kyyiv: USRHMI; CGO, 2006. 136 p. (In Ukrainian)
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The article in question describes the history of development of agrometeorological service activities for agricultural production from the days of Mikhail Vasilyevich Lomonosov to the present. It is pointed out that the agrometeorological service experienced especially rapid development in the second half of the twentieth century. Establishment of the Department of Agricultural Meteorology in 1953 at the Ukrainian Research Hydrometeorological Institute stimulated development of agrometeorological research in Ukraine. Three stages can be distinguished in researches of this department on the influence of weather conditions on yield formation. At the first stage (1953 – 1963) generalization and systematization of the materials for study into agrohydrological soil properties were performed. At the second stage (1963 – 1973) a working hypothesis on the scheme for taking account of the influence of weather conditions on the vegetative mass increase was formulated, and a correlation analysis of crop productivity with hydrometeorological elements was carried out. A huge amount of work on research into the regime of photosynthetically active radiation and crop productivity as well as into the phytoclimate of the sown areas has been performed. The third stage (since 1974) is the stage of formation of a basic model for crop productivity and development of methods for forecasting productivity.
The agrometeorological service activities for agricultural production at every level is imple-mented in accordance with the approved annual plans for hydrometeorological activity of organizations. A basis for the agrometeorological provision is formed by the materials of meteorological and agrometeorological observations which are conducted at 163 meteorological stations throughout the country.
The Hydrometeorological Service of Ukraine represents the country in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), an agency of the United Nations Organization (UNO). Leading agrometeorology experts take part in the activity of WMO Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM).
Relying on the scientifically substantiated methods of agrometeorological assessment, forecasts and recommendations, the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center and the regional centres for Hydrometeorology provide all the agricultural industries of the Agroindustrial complex with relevant information.
Introduction. The existing agroclimatic handbooks in Kazakhstan are outdated in informational and
technological relation. Therefore it is necessary to conduct reassessment of agroclimatic resources.
Purpose. The agroclimatic zoning of the territory of northern Kazakhstan in terms of heat supply and moisture
content.
Methods. Data of meteorological stations over 1981-2014 were used. Methods of statistic and climatologic
processing of data were applied. Agro-climatic maps were developed using the ArcGIS 10.1 software.
Results. Analysis of spatial distribution of values of moisture coefficient K and sums of active air temperatures
above 10оC provided an opportunity to single out 6 agroclimatic zones of plain territory of Kazakhstan. Zones from 3 to 6 are subdivided into two types in terms of thermal conditions. There are 3 agroclimatic zones singled out within the territory of North Kazakhstan Region, 4 zones – in Kostanai region, 4 zones – in Akmola region, 2 zones – in Pavlodar region. Distribution of drought characteristics, hot dry winds and climatic terms for beginning of spring field works within Akmola region’s agroclimatic zones was given as an example for systematization of spatial distribution of respective values. The first zone with moderately humid and moderately warm climate has severe droughts with recurrence of 2%, hot winds of moderate intensity are observed during 2-3 days, climatic terms for beginning of spring field works fall on 15th-19th of May. The fourth zone with moderately dry and warm climate has severe droughts with recurrence of 30-35%, hot winds of moderate intensity are observed during 20-25 days, climatic terms for beginning of spring field works fall on 5th-7th of May.
Conclusions. There are 3 agroclimatic zones singled out within the territory of North Kazakhstan Region, 4 zones – in Kostanai region, 4 zones – in Akmola region, 2 zones – in Pavlodar region.
- Koloskov P. I. Agroklimaticheskoe rayonirovanie Kazakhstana [Agroclimatic zoning of Kazakhstan]. Moscow: Publishing House of the USSR Academy of Sciences, 1947. 267 p.
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- Losev A. P. Praktikum po agroklimaticheskomu obespecheniyu rastenievodstva [Workshop on agro-climatic security crop]. St-Pb.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1994. 243 p.
- Gordeev A. V., Kleshchenko A. D., Chernyakov B. A., Sirotenko O. D. Bioklimaticheskiy potentsial Rossii: teoriya i praktika [Bioclimatic potential of Russia: Theory and Practice]. Moscow: Association of scientific editions KMK, 2006. 512 p.
The paper presents an overview of the current state and prospects for development of oceanographic research that is performed at specialized institutions being the constituents of Odessa Scientific Cluster: The Ukrainian Scientific Center of Ecology of the Sea, the Institute of Marine Biology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the Odessa Area Branch of State Hydrographic Service of Ukraine, the Black and Azov Seas Center for Hydrometeorology, the Odessa State Environmental University and the Hydroacoustics Department of the S. I. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. The priority tasks in the field of Oceanology, defined at the First All-Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Congress having being held in Odessa on 22-23 March 2017 are formulated. It is concluded that after Ukraine had lost the Crimean Scientific Oceanographic Cluster, the Odessa Cluster remained the only center in Ukraine which structural units had practical experience in marine research, scientific potential, scientific and methodological developments, an infrastructure for implementation of the tasks of the Maritime Doctrine of Ukraine for the period of up to 2035 as regards the issues related to oceanographic support for the maritime economic activity and sustainable development of Ukraine as a maritime nation. However, a necessary precondition for this is enhancement of the system for organization of oceanographic research at the state level and proper resource support for development of the scientific and technical potential.
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- Alexandrov B., Arashkevich E., Gubanova A., Korshenko A. Black Sea monitoring guidelines: Mesozooplankton. Secre-tariat of commission on protection of the Black Sea against pollution. Istanbul, 2015. 31 p. http://emblasproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/ Man-ual_mesozooplankton_EMBLAS_ann.pdf
- Kurilov A. Black Sea monitoring guidelines: Microzooplank-ton. Secretariat of commission on protection of the Black Sea against pollution. Istanbul, 2015. 31 p. http://emblasproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/ Man-ual_microzooplankton_EMBLAS_ann.pdf
- Minicheva G., Afanasyev D., Kurakin A. Black Sea monitor-ing guidelines: Macrophytobenthos. Secretariat of commis-sion on protection of the Black Sea against pollution. Istanbul, 2015. 76 p. http://emblasproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Manual_macrophytes_EMBLAS_ ann.pdf
- Alexandrov B., Minicheva G., Zaitsev Ya. Black Sea network of marine protected areas: European approaches and adapta-tion to expansion and monitoring in Ukraine. Management of Marine Protected Areas: A Network Perspective, 2017, pp. 227 − 246. (Eds: P. Goriup. John Wiley & Sons Ltd)
- On Hydrometeorological Activity: The Law of Ukraine no. 443-XIV of 18 February 1999. Bulletin of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (VVR), 1999, no. 16, art. 95. http://zakon2.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/443-14. (accessed: 22.05.2017).
- Chernyshev M. P. Kratkaya istoriya razvitiya gidrometeo-rologicheskikh nablyudeniy i issledovaniy na Chernom i Azovskom moryah [A Brief History of the Development of Hydrometeorological Observations and Research at the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov]. Sevastopol: Preprint, 1966. 152 p.
- Tuchkovenko Y. S., Sakhnenko O. I. Modeling of the wind waves transformation on the beach zone under the different variants of the wavebreaker reconstruction. Ukr. gìdrometeorol. ž. – Ukr. hydrometeor. J., 2007, no. 2, pp. 175-185. http://uhmj.odeku.edu.ua/uk/ modelyuvannya-transformatsiyi-vitrovih-hvil-v-priberezhnij-zoni-morya-za-riznih-variantah-rekonstruktsiyi-hvilelomu/ (In Russian)
- Tuchkovenko Y. S., Sakhnenko O. I. The modeling of the water dynamic on the beach zone under the different wave-wind conditions. Ukr. gìdrometeorol. ž. – Ukr. hydrometeor. J., 2008, no. 3, pp. 202-212. http://uhmj.odeku.edu.ua/en/ category/2008-en/03-en/ (In Russian)
- Tuchkovenko Yu. S. Mathematical Model for Calculation of Wind Currents in the Odessa Region of the Northwestern Part of the Black Sea. Meteorology, Climatology and Hy-drology, 2002, no. 45, pp. 107-117. (In Russian)
- Ivanov V. A., Tuchkovenko Yu. S. Prikladnoe mate-maticheskoe modelirovanie kachestva vod shel’fovykh mor-skikh ekosistem [Applied mathematical water-quality model-ing of shelf marine ecosystems]. Marine Hydrophysical Institute of NASU; Odessa State Environmental University. Sevastopol, 2006. 368 p.
- Tuchkovenko Yu. S., Ivanov V. A., Sapko О. Yu. Otsenka vliyaniya beregovykh antropogennykh istochnikov na kachestvo vod Odesskogo rayona severo-zapadnoy chasti Chernogo morya [Assessment of coastal anthropogenic sources impact on water quality in north-western part of Black Sea near Odessa]. Marine Hydrophysical Institute of NASU; Odessa State Environmental University. Sevastopol, 2011. 169 p.
- Tuchkovenko Yu. S., Ilyushyn V. Ya., Komorin V. N. Mod-elling of Sediment Transport in the Kerch Strait. Meteorol-ogy, Climatology and Hydrology, 2005, no. 49, pp. 446-459. (In Russian)
- Tuchkovenko Yu. S., Kushnir D. Results of adaptation of the Delft3D-FLOW model to the conditions of the Tyligulskyi estuary. Vìsn. Odes. derž. ekol. Unìv. – Bull. of OSENU, 2014, vol. 18, pp. 164-174. http://bulletin.odeku.edu.ua/en/category/2014-en/18-en/ (In Russian)
- Tuchkovenko Yu. S., Kushnir D. V., Loboda N. S. Estimation of the influence of water exchange with the sea conditions on the water level and salinity variability in the Tyligulskyi Li-man lagoon. Ukr. gìdrometeorol. ž. – Ukr. hydrometeor. J., 2015, no. 16, pp. 232-241. http://uhmj.odeku.edu.ua/en/category/2015-en/16-en/ (In Ukrainian)
- Kushnir D. V., Tuchkovenko Yu. S. Results of Modelling for the Sanding up of ‘the Tiligul Liman – the Black Sea’ Con-necting Canal being Reconstructed. Current Environmental State and Quality of Particular Regions: Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference for Young Scientists (Odessa, 1-3 June 2016). Odessa: TES, 2016, pp. 124-128. (In Ukrainian)
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- Tuchkovenko Yu. S. Development of Components for the National System of Marine Forecasts in Ukraine. Abstracts of the First All-Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Congress with International Participation (Odessa, 22-23 March 2017). Odessa: TES, 2017, pp. 310-311. (In Ukrainian)
Development of the Hydrology in universities of Ukraine is the formation and development of scientific schools, which promote of the better training of professionals.
Purpose of the article – to show the history of hydrological science in higher educational institutions of Ukraine, the formation of scientific schools, their achievements and problems, outline prospects for the development of Hydrology in universities .
The article presents the history of hydrological science in higher educational institutions of Ukraine since 1922, when E. Oppokov first time in Ukraine established the Department of Hydrology at the Kiev Polytechnic Institute, that passed difficult path of transformation and now is presented at the National University of Water Management and Nature (Rivne). It was described the development of hydrology at the Odessa State Environmental University (since 1932), Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University (since 1946), Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv (since 1949), Oles Gonchar Dnipro National University (since 2008). The results of the work of scientists hydrologists at these universities, especially Odessa scientific school of theoretical and applied hydrology and Kiev University scientific school of hydrochemistry and hydroecology was considered.
Hydrological Sciences at the Universities of Ukraine have a long tradition that has formed dur-ing last century. In general, it is today developing in the mainstream global hydrology. Prospects of Hydrological Sciences is closely linked to prospects of the national economy. Ukrainian hydrologists must work more closely with international institutions on joint research projects. The task of universities is not only intensify research, but also in improving the training of specialists hydrologists from the time when hydrology was included in “Earth Sciences”.
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The paper presents an overview of the current state and prospects for development of oceanographic research that is performed at specialized institutions being the constituents of Odessa Scientific Cluster: The Ukrainian Scientific Center of Ecology of the Sea, the Institute of Marine Biology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the Odessa Area Branch of State Hydrographic Service of Ukraine, the Black and Azov Seas Center for Hydrometeorology, the Odessa State Environmental University and the Hydroacoustics Department of the S. I. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. The priority tasks in the field of Oceanology, defined at the First All-Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Congress having being held in Odessa on 22-23 March 2017 are formulated. It is concluded that after Ukraine had lost the Crimean Scientific Oceanographic Cluster, the Odessa Cluster remained the only center in Ukraine which structural units had practical experience in marine research, scientific potential, scientific and methodological developments, an infrastructure for implementation of the tasks of the Maritime Doctrine of Ukraine for the period of up to 2035 as regards the issues related to oceanographic support for the maritime economic activity and sustainable development of Ukraine as a maritime nation. However, a necessary precondition for this is enhancement of the system for organization of oceanographic research at the state level and proper resource support for development of the scientific and technical potential.
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