In order to develop the theoretical foundations of the approach to analysis and prediction of anthropogenic impact on atmosphere of industrial city and development of a new scheme of modelling properties of fields of the polluting substances concentrations by means of a chaos theory, we present an analysis of physical aspects for reconstruction of the phase space (air basin) and advanced conception of Lyapunov’s dimensions.
In this paper, the estimation and analysis of air pollution Nikolaev from 2004 – 2011, on the basis of monitoring data. Classification of air pollution based indicator of air pollution.
The estimation of the contribution of emissions from the enterprises of Odessa in the formation of air pollution with nitrogen dioxide in four wind directions: north, east, south, west, is presented. These results can serve a basis for determination of the most dangerous industries in adverse weather conditions considering the air mass transfer in order to regulate their activities to prevent pollution of the city.
On the basis of the theory of chaos, in particular, correlation dimension method and the Grossberger-Procaccia algorithm, is has been performed the analysis of time series of concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in Gdynia (Gdansk region) and calculated spectrum of the correlation dimension, that confirms the existence of a chaos existence. The resulting numerical estimates are consistent with the data from the spectrum of Lyapunov dimensionі, Kaplan-York dimension and Kolmogorov entropy. The estimation of the limit of predictability for the method of the short-termed forecast is given.
The background of natural medicinal resources cadaster considering specificity of balneology was analyzed, the informational system for accumulation, systematization of existing data on the NMR and expansion of processing tasks was developed.
The paper discusses the ecosystem functioning boundary conditions of wetland “Kartal Lake” and in this context it is defined its optimal level regime.
It is carried out a multifractal analysis of temporal sets for the Arctic, Antarctic and Southern oscillation index, indexes within a multi-fractal formalism with using the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm.
Model describing the changes of concentrations of 7Ве in the surface layer in the region of Miami was offered. The model uses the third-order polynomial on the three variables: temperature, amount of precipitation, number of days with thunderstorms in the month. This model allows to predict the process under study in two steps (years).
In the article describes the main displays of regional climate change in the Transcarpathian region in the modern period. Showed results of the analysis change the climate system during the last twenty years (1991-2010) of relatively climatic norm (1961-1990). Identified regional features of changes thermal regime, the regime of humidity and extreme weather events.
The analysis of the main characteristics of climate in Minsk and regularities of their change during natural development and anthropogenic transformation of urban environment is given. The received results can be used in practice of rational environmental management for adoption of competent administrative decisions on optimization of functioning and development of the capital of Belarus taking into account possible variations of climate.
Using mathematical model, the estimation of the productivity of agro-climatic resources in Ukraine in relation to the cultivation of tomatoes has been performed. The analysis of the hydrothermal regime of crops of tomatoes and of the increments of different ecological types of yields has been performed.
It is proposed a new approach to non-linear forecasting chaotic processes in hydrological systems, which is based on conception of compact geometrical attractor and neural networks algorithm. The proposed approach has been applied to forecasting the nitrates concentration evolution in some Small Carpathian watersheds.
This article reviews scientific and methodological approaches to establish the design characteristics of rain flood in the territory of South Ukraine.
The evaluation of long-term temporal changes in meteorological factors and runoff characteristics of the spring flood of basins rivers Desna and other left tributary of the Dnieper, and offers recommendations for these changes in the territorially general method for forecasting of maximum runoff of spring flood.
It was identified and trained dependence of dehydrating by evaporation from the whole water area and individual parts, on the basis of the generalized real hydrometeorological information for 55 years of reservoirs operation.
On the basis of real meteorological data generalization and analysis of indicators of evaporation from the water surface of Kremenchug reservoir during its operation were held.
The variability of the hydrological-hydrochemical conditions of the Kuyalnik liman during the last 15 years was analyzed on the basis of experimental data and results of direct observations. Natural factors can not stabilize the current water-salt and hydrochemical conditions of the Kuyalnik liman over long periods. Replenishment of the liman with water from the external sources will not lead to radical changes of its balneal and recreational qualities.
Approaches of beforehand assessment of spring flood runoff at Pripyat – Mozyr based on typology of spring flood hydrographs which characterize features of its formation development processes are considered. Elaboration of type schemes of distribution in time of spring runoff aiming to receive a long-time forecast was done with approximation and based on statistic processing and analysis of long-term data of hydrometric observations (1881 – 2009 years).
In the article description is given long-term changes of flow and repetition of floods in cold and warm periods of year in the river basin of Tisza (within Ukraine), tendencies in the changes of these indexes in a modern period (1991-2011) in relation to the period of climatic norm (1961-1990).
Features of space-time changes of hydrochemical marks of lower part of the Dniester estuary for period of 2007-2010 due to natural and human factors influence are given. Results of water quality estimation by different methods and estimation of water quality compliance to standards are presented.
The generalization of the real hydro and morphometric information on the waters of the Kakhovka reservoir, comparison and analysis of results.
The paper discusses the issues of redistribution of modern runoff on the branches of the Danube Delta and its possible changes in the conditions of new engineering works.
The mode of biogene and organic substances of the small rivers of the city of Chernovtsy is investigated. It is established, that owing to anthropogenous influence concentration of mineral compounds of nitrogen raised, their annual dynamics and ratios of forms of the content in river waters changed. Extent of growth of the content of organic and biogene substance was defined by level of anthropogenous influence on basins of the rivers.
It is discussed the effects of seasonal variability of temperature on the developmental character of autotrophic components of marine plankton. An automodel equation of realization of biotic potential (µ/µm) by connection with tolerance range indices is formulated: µ/µm = f(Tmin, Tm, Тopt, Q). A physico-geographical model of µ/µm formation in different latitudes is developed, in which this index is used as a mathematic function. It is discussed ecologic strategies and effects of suppression of autotrophs by a seasonal trend of temperature variability. Examples are given.
Seasonal oscillations of the ocean level in Pacific between 40N and 40S associated with the monsoon activity are considered. The database includes 34 continental and island stations. The largest seasonal ocean level oscillations occur in the north-western part of the Pacific and are of about 400 mm, while in the south-eastern part seasonal variations equal to 70 mm. In the Central Pacific the ocean level changes are minimal and as large as about 40 mm. In a case of overlaying the seasonal variations and the South oscillation the total ocean level changes can achieve up to 700 mm.
Subtle differences temperature variability of different time scales in the sea off the coast of Odessa and in the shallow Dofinovsky estuary are revealed on a base of annual series of measurements with a half-hour measuring resolution. When conditions of the solar radiation – the main factor of the temperature variability – are almost identical these differences are determined by morphometry of a bodies of water. Morphometry features of water transform the results of the meteorological factors, including the same solar radiation. Two interesting features of the variability in water temperature under the ice are revealed.
The nature of the formation of the Black Sea surfaces circulation is examined on the hydrological surveys in the spring (April), summer (July), autumn (September) and winter (February-March) seasons. The main role of the river freshet in the formation of the Black Sea surfaces circulation and the consecutive seasonal development of its intensity at the first – the western gyre (April), and then – the eastern gyre (September) is shown as by the climatic and the specific hydrological surveys.
The paper analyzes the inter-annual variability in oil content in the surface layer of the Odessa region north-west of the Black Sea in connection to the same variabilities in water temperature, salinity, mineral forms of nitrogen and phosphorus and the flow Dnieper in 1988-2012.
The paper analyzes the results of observations of currents of the summer 2009 and 2012 in the coastal zone of the Odessa region north-west of the Black Sea.
This research makes it possible to improve the short-term numerical prognosis of meteorological and turbulent variables, using equations of hydrodynamics and the closure technique of two equations of turbulence, including the TKE budget and TKE dissipation equations.
Basic equations are shown within the framework of the K-theory for non-stationary, stratified, bariclinic, hydrostatical atmosphere in the isobaric coordinates and Cartesian coordinate system. The finite-difference equation is solved with method of successive approximations. It allows applying implicit time integration, which provides the calculated stability and positive values of TKE and dissipation.
The two-day prognosis of meteorological and turbulent variables is obtained for the North hemisphere. The spatial distribution of meteorological and turbulent variables is analyzed for the region of 0–45E, 40–65N.
The analysis shows strong turbulence at midday in the condition of the unsteady stratification and absence of turbulence at night for the steady one.
Variables of atmospheric boundary layer are calculated with the 50 m vertical step in the 3-km layer in the net points for hilly and mountainous areas. Prognostic results depict quantitative correlations between temperature stratification, the wind shift and turbulent parameters. Comparison of meteorological conditions in the areas of turbulence shows that in the day hours strong turbulence develops at identical meteorological conditions in both areas, but in the night time the turbulence disappears faster at strong steady stratification for hilly areas, than for mountain ones. The results of analysis of prognostic structure of turbulence show that in the second half of day and in the early morning (transitional period) there are separate residual layers, where turbulence is still active, developing higher steadily to stratified lower part of boundary layer. The quantitative parameters of turbulence and meteorological terms of separate residual layers are presented.
Renorm-group and fractal approach is used to study a turbulence spectrum in a general dynamics of atmosphere, turbulent pulsation in planetary atmosphere – cosmic plasma and galactic cosmic rays system.
Integrated multi-scale modelling concept of urban environment, air pollution, climate change and human health interactions for megacities and overview of integrated modelling frameworks for global to street scale realized in European FP7 project MEGAPOLI and several following research projects, are described in this paper.
The changes of thermal balance components of specific geographic area, estimated from data of measuring on one of its facies, are studied. Estimations, carried out with the step of 10 m on the basis of the digital relief model of part of the mountain slope, show that shadowing of slopes and slope orientation, which can strongly differentiate in the distance of a few meters, play important part in forming of topoclimate.
The evaluation of features of urban heat island (UHI) over Odessa is performed. The object of study is the data of surface temperature from 15 stations, while 9 stations locate within the city boundaries. The length of rows is 45 months. The questions of the station selection, the observation timing and the ensuring of data uniformity are discussed. The results indicate to systematic presence of urban heat island. Its intensity was 2,9 °C. On average the urban environment was warmer than rural areas to 1,3°C. Accounting of coastal stations leads to the underestimation of UHI parameters to 0,5°C.
The brief review of directions and aspects of research of features, changeability and extremality regional climate is given at the example of the Ural and usage of significantly informative and infrequently used index of wetness – continuous periods of precipitation deficiency. The specialized informative base (databases) of studied phenomenon, called as «Catalogues…», is created that has the independent scientific-methodical and applied sense. Indexes of spatiotemporal and interannual changeability of periods of a different duration calculated on their basis and cartographically and graphically interpreted, show the territorial, seasonal and interannual features of their distribution, tendencies of displays of interannual changes of extreme (by a different indicator recommendation) periods. Results display that these indexes can be the indicator of changeability of climate in the aspect of region and can be used for recommendations on perspective and operative prognostication of unfavorable terms of moistening – for the improvement of hydrometeorological support of economy industries.
The paper presents achievements of the previous “Arctic Risk” project: “Atmospheric transport pathways, vulnerability and possible accidental consequences from the nuclear risk sites in the European Arctic (multidisciplinary network studies)” of the Nordic Arctic Research Programme (NARP) and several following research initiatives and projects. The main results include the development and testing of a methodology for complex nuclear risk assessment and vulnerability evaluation.
On the basis of 3-year observation in the air surface layer in the Tomsk region, features of annual and day’s motion of the ground concentration of ozone on 4 posts with different pollution levels (urban, suburban and background) and vertical distribution on the territory of base experimental station and the observatory “Fonovaya”. It is shown, that between posts there are noticeable distinctions, both in annual, and in day’s motion.
Different groups of circulation were analysed in relation to the sector of East Antarctica of the South hemisphere in years with maximal and minimum seawater ion concentration (Na+) in snow for the last decades. Large-scale processes, which is favourable to increase or reduction of sodium ion concentration, are revealed.
A new method of cluster analysis that makes possibility to divide data set into multitudes in accordance with the heterogeneity principle. Numerical experiments show that the results of clusterization obtained for sea surface temperature, are physical explained.
The main particularities of the temperature fields structure revealed. The principal components of these fields obtained. The certain recurring decimals of the components oscillations have hidden. The obtained preliminary findings on atmospheric teleсonnection between the main components of the surface air temperature fields.
The formation of low level jet in autumn 2001-2010, the structure and relationship with the stratification of temperature are characterized on the basis of sounding observations for the ten-year period. The synoptic processes prevailing during the formation of low jets are identified. The influence of temperature advection on the case of intense flow in the lower troposphere is estimated.
The article deals with heat waves cases in Kyiv during one hundred years. It was analyzed their temporal dynamics, duration and intensity. It was found that heat wave in July–August 2010 was the most powerful and longest during the study period. It was characterized synoptic processes that led to its formation and temperature regime in Kiev at this time.
The comparative assessment of the statistical characteristics of the series of wind speed at the surface in the area of marine meteorological stations Illichevsk-Port and Yuzhny-Port, and found a number of regularities that take into account not only the seasonal and diurnal variation of these parameters, but also the impact of physical and geographical conditions of the location of the meteorological stations the formation of ground-level wind regime.
They are estimated the change of agro climatic resources in the Ukrainian part of the Danube Delta sub-basin in 2011-2030 years and 2030 – 2050 years due to climate change, in a compared with the base period 1986 – 2005 years. For the assessment of climate change in Ukraine A1B scenario, the regional climate model MPI-M-REMO, a global model – CHAM5-r3 have been used. The evaluation of the heat and humidity of the growing season, and evaluation of the changes of agro-climatic conditions of winter wheat in relation to climate change has been done.
On the basis of adaptative computations in the framework of three-dimensional numerical model with high spatial resolution and data of reanalysis relationship between the interannual-decennial changeability of largescale circulation in the Black sea and the vorticity of wind field is examined. Two types of adaptative computations for October-November and February-March are analyzed. First series of numerical experiments are carried out on the basis of adaptation of the archival temperature and salinity data for 30 years and wind fields averaged for ten-year periods. The second series of computations is conducted from the data joined in groups for years with the high and low values of the vorticity of wind field. It is shown, that for interannual scale the intensity of large-scale circulation in the Black sea is connected with changeability of middle vorticity of wind fields over the sea. For ten-year scale such relationship is not revealed. Though increasing area with prevailing cyclonic vorticity of wind fields for ten year scale is accompanied by strengthening of middle flows.