On the basis of decision of nonstationary equalization of turbulent diffusion with the set sizes of constituents of speed of wind of u, v, w and coefficient of turbulent diffusion of kx,, ky and kz, new formula is got for the calculation of the fields of concentrations of contaminations of air. A formula takes into account interposes of dispersion of admixtures communication in the direction of axes of the system of coordinates. The formulas of calculations allow to calculate the fields of concentrations above the surfaces of any complication, at any meteorological terms and speeds of wind, including at a calm without the use of Gaussians scales of diffusion.
The results of numerical mathematical modelling of distribution of polluting substances on water area of the Yalpug-Kugurluy lakes are presented. Waters of the river Danube which act in a reservoir through connecting channels, and flow of r. Yalpug are considered as sources of pollution.
It is carried out the long-term forecast of adaptation for system of “ocean-atmosphere” at an athropogenic action within the generalized carbon global cycle model, which reproduces a season dynamics of carbon cycle in an ocean with account for the zone ocean structure, a dependence of the СО2 transfer through the atmosphere-ocean boundary upon temperature of the water and air, wind velocity, biotical activity contribution.
Offered mathematically stand, but the physically grounded algorithm of vector field of relief and air currents. An algorithm will be realized in the two-dimensional and the three-dimensional field of relief and wind and does not require the machine time. The results of estimation of influencing of relief the level of contamination of atmospheric air industrial source.
The critical analysis of complex estimation of quality of waters on different methods on the example of Yugny Bug – Pervomaysk is executed in the article. It is shown that on different users and lacks of these methods does not allow the orientation of existent methods adequately to characterize quality of waters, as environments of dwelling of live organisms. As a result from data of one point of supervisions of water it is possible to characterize from «clean» to «catastrophically muddy». The lacks of existent methods are transferred and a new method is offered.
Ukrainian precipitation conditions’ changes in 2011-2025 are analyzed for some SRES scenarios using model data. The analysis of precipitation anomalies’ distribution is carried out during certain seasons and whole year. It is shown that the precipitation conditions undergo the largest changes for the “moderate” scenario A1B, and the distribution of precipitation in Ukraine will be most insufficient for the “soft” scenario B1.
New approaches to description of global mechanisms in atmosphere models and calculation of the Earth angle moment balance are presented.
Dynamics of moisture conditions is examined in summers and in winters of twentieth century over the territory of the Odessa region. It is found that distribution of the monthly precipitation sums has considerable heterogeneity both in space, and in time. It is conditioned by different conditions of precipitation formation in the first and in the second halves of the last century.
The opportunity of reflection of clouds and dangerous weather phenomena, connected to them, by the help of the reflected polarized signals is investigated in this article.
The tornado’s formation above Ukraine is characterized, the regularity is estimated. The two episodes of tornado near Sevastopol are investigated, main synoptic and hydrodynamic factors are resumed for these causes.
Heterogeneity in the temperature condition of the off-shore stations of Western and East Antarctica and steady growth of temperature of troposphere above the Antarctic peninsula is shown. The characteristic periods of fluctuations in the ground temperature of air are exposed.
By the calculation of correlation communication between the indexes of blocking for the Azorean and Siberian maximums that accompanying by their anomalies of amount of precipitations certain conformities to the law in their spatio-temporal distributing are exposed.
Influence of change of CO2 contents in an atmosphere on intensity of green leaf photosynthesis in conditions of various flax density of a photosynthetic active radiation is considered.
Whit a help of mathematical model the estimation of agroclimatic resources of productivity of Ukraine territory as it applies to growing of cabbage is executed .It is resulted the analysis of the waterthermal mode of sowing of cabbage and its meteorological possible productivity.
Approaches to optimization of structure of sowing areas of agricultural crops in Ukraine are considered.
Simplex-method as method of linear programming under solution of given task is described. Algorithm of
optimization of sowing areas under main agricultural crops in Ukraine is given. Results of optimization of
sowing areas under main agricultural crops on the base of detailed account of agriclimatic conditions of yield
formation are presented with application of simplex method.
1. Борисова О.А. Оптимизация структуры посевных площадей с учетом агроклиматических ресурсов
территории как задача стохастического программирования.//Труды ВНИИСХИМ. – Л.: Гидрометеоиздат,
1989, вып.24. – С. 30-38.
2. Жуков В.А. О некоторых проблемах агроклиматического обеспечения агропромышленного комплекса.
//Труды ВНИИСХМ. – Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1989, вып.24. – С.6-17.
3. Жуков В.А. Моделирование, оценка и рациональное использование агроклиматических ресурсов
России. // Авторефер. дисс. д.геогр.н., шифр 11.00.09. – М., 1998. – 54 с.
4. Витченко А. Н., Полевой А. Н. Методика агроэкологической оценки сельскохозяйственной
продуктивности ландшафтов Белоруссии. //Вестник Белорусского университета, сер. 2: химия, биология,
география, 1986, № 2. – С. 56– 59.
5. Державна цільова програма розвитку українського села на період до 2015 року. – Київ. 2008. – 40с.
6. Концепція державної цільової програми „Зерно України 2009 – 2015”. – Київ. – 2008.
7. Калініченко А.В. Оптимальне використання земельних ресурсів – надійний засіб досягнення
збалансованості агроекосистем. //Агроекологічний журнал. – 2005. -№1. – С.15-22.
8. Ляшенко И.Н., Карагодова Е.А., Черникова Н.В., Груша М.М. Линейное и нелинейное
программирование. – Киев: Вища школа, 1975. – 371 с.
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сельскохозяйственных культур. – Метеорологія, кліматологія і гідрологія. Міжвідомчий науковий
збірник України – Одеса: Екологія. – 2008. – № 48. –С. 196-205.
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журнал. – Одесса. – №3. – С.98 – 108.
The theory of the biological temporal field, able to unite or «work» at a different level of hierarchy of organization of processes of photosynthesis, photorespiration and respiration of maintenance, is offered. Coming from a theory, by natural appearance the subdivision of productional process of plants on photosynthesis, photorespiration and respiration of maintenance is carried out. Becomes a photorespiration role is clear – it is a process providing indissoluble communication of motions of the biological temporal field. The factor of the biological temporal field is an uniting link at a different level of hierarchy of biological processes of plant.
Modelling processes of absorption of a moisture by a seed, hydrolysis of spare substances, growth of germinal roots and leafs, a condition of plants of a winter wheat on a phase of shoots is offered.
In work the results of numeral experiments are expounded and quantitative estimation of influencing of temperature is given and water availability on clean productivity of photosynthesis and intensity of photosynthesis of culture of sugar beet.
Estimation of the generalized characteristic of soil-climatic terms millet of tillingl and its productivity is given.
In article the structural lacks of normative base SNiP 2.01.14 – 83 on calculation of the characteristics maximal runoff of floods are considered.
It is carried out numerical modelling fluctuate temporal trends for mean monthly discharges (r. Danube) within a new method of description for the hydrological systems. The latter is based on the combining multi-factor systems approach and multi-fractal formalism. It is calculated a spectrum of the fractal dimensions.
The analysis of long-term variability of climatic factors within Podol is carried out. Statistically significant rise in temperature in region in the absence of changes in the tendency of sediments is marked. In a runoff of the rivers the phase which has begun in 1998 of increase of hydraulicity proceeds. Seasonal redistribution of a runoff of the rivers from considered territory became less expressed, and on some rivers return process (increase of a share of a runoff during a spring season) has begun.
The estimation of changes of an annual runoff on the basis of imitating stochastic model of a life-conditioned annual runoff is resulted and model approbation on data of water economic balances for 1991-2003 years is executed.
The technique of designing flood hydrograph on wades of Algeria based on models D.L.Sokolovskiy is offered
Improvement of parameters for the series of spring high water is made on the basis of application of multidimensional integral analysis and the R-modification of factor analysis. Calculations are conducted with 70 hydrological objects, which are located on left bank of the Dnieper, taken as examples. Performance analysis for the application of the aid of integral analysis at improvement of statistical estimations for hydrological descriptions of spring high water is presented.
Fractal properties of river networks (Dniester and Southern Bug) were established by the hierarchica and the statistical models. Fractal dimensions of river networks Dniester and Southern Bug are equal: D = 1,61, D = 1,58, accordingly, lacunary dimension G D = 1,99, Hurst dimension 0 H = 0,573, 0 H = 0,531, accordingly.
Particular solution of Saint-Venant equation is under consideration in the paper, with its inertia constituents taken account of. The analytical result is used for conducting numerical experiments related to the process of river stream outlet onto a tideless coast. Qualitative and quantitative characteristics of initial and transitional areas of the stream as well as ones of a tail of a river stream at a coast come into question.
There were calculated and analysed statistic characteristics of longterm (more than 24 hours) temperature lowerings of sea surface, caused by upwelling during warm season around Odessa. Data of Odessa-port station were used over a period of 90 years. It is shown that typical periodicity of upwelling reiteration has changed much during the period of study. If during the first 60 years mainly low-frequency periodicity (10 years) prevailed, than during last 30 years, opposite, – more high-frequency (inter-yearly). It is conditioned mainly by nonstationarity of wind.
On the basis of algorithms filtration R. Kalmana the method of mastering of the archival information in mathematical hydrodynamic models of the sea was developed with preliminary data processing with the help of algorithm automatic clusterization.
A dynamics of concentration of sea ice of arctic is analyzed; statistical descriptions of lengthened row are calculated. Meaningful periods of vibrations of total concentration of sea ice are definite. Typification on five equal gradations is conducted, proper 20% changeability of sizes of total concentration of sea ice fields.
The evolution of a large-scale azimuthal velocity field in a rotating cylindrical layer of fluid (radius 150 mm, depth 30 mm, free upper surface) with meridional convective circulation was studied experimentally. Two cases were considered: inward upper level circulation provided by a rim heater at the periphery and outward upper level circulation provided by a central heater. The heating rate is characterized by the Grashoff number defined through the heat flux. The detailed 3D structure of the mean large-scale velocity field is reconstructed using the PIV technique for large interval of Grashoff number values. It was shown that the energy of meridional circulation grows with the Grashoff number in the same way for both directions of circulation. Due to the action of the Coriolis force the meridional flow results in differential rotation. Meridional circulation leads to substantial variation of the integral angular momentum. Inward circulation results in the growth of the integral angular momentum and outward circulation causes it to decrease. At the same heating power, the increase of angular momentum at inward circulation is much stronger than its decrease at outward circulation.
The state-dependent error of the MM5 model for the geopotential, temperature and relative humidity fields in different synoptical patterns during a winter season over the Atlantic Ocean is considered. The evolution of the model error throughout the integration period is shown. Parts of synoptical patterns responsible for the largest model error are outlined.
An analytical theory of the moist convective instability of the rotating thermally stratified viscous and heat-conducting atmospheric layer is created [12,13,16,17]. A conventional parameterization scheme of the heat source caused by the condensation latent heat release, similar CISC parameterization, is used. The theory may be taken as a generalization of the classical theory of the Rayleigh convective instability for a case of the water vapor phase transfers. The theory demonstrates the fundamental difference between the moist convective instability and the Rayleigh instability: it is shown, that the instability region on the plane of the problem parameters c nsists of tw subregions, in the first one loc lized over the space “hurricane like” structures have o o a the largest growth rate, and only in the second one – periodic over the space structures. The theory developed describes a number of peculiarities in the dynamics of clouds, cloud streets and tropical cyclones. It destroys a conventional opinion, that CISC and similar parameterizations can not lead to the development of the localized structures of the tropical cyclones size.
A test of efficiency of the one-dimensional non-stationary baroclinic non-adiabatic model with “b-l”-closure works, using the special observational archive of FGEW (December 1978 – November 1979), was carried out. Reliability of the received results was verified qualitatively and quantitatively: comparing visually the space–time sections and the seasonal behaviour of the fact and calculated meteorological magnitudes and with the statistical methods (the correlation and difference coefficients) accordingly. Such comparing analysis has showed the good agreement between calculated and observed air temperature, wind speed and direction fields sufficiently.
In the paper the general atmospheric circulation model sensitivity to the surface characteristics changes in the urban areas is analyzed. It was shown that surface temperature in the certain areas got closer to the climatic values in the experiments taking into account city surface features. Later on we will change the city parameters in other ways for the areas where no improvement was obtained.
The three-dimension diagnostic and prognostic models of frontal cloud systems have been used for investigation of atmospheric phenomena connected with atmospheric fronts and their cloud systems that caused the damage events. Case of high convective cell caused aircrafts accident (August of 2006) will be presented in detail. It is found that is plausible to assume that crash was caused by conditions as follow: violent development of chimney clouds on the way of aircraft; cells of the strong vertical motions that can make the flight out of control; zones of instability that caused strong turbulence; chimney convective clouds with crystal tops and mixed layers that caused riming of aircraft.
3-D forecasting microphysical models of frontal cloud systems were adapted to extreme conditions during the tornado activity. Models with and without including of a complex relief developed in UHRI have been used for theoretical interpretation of the investigated phenomena. Conditions of formation and evolution of the deep convective cells, strong updrafts and downdrafts, strong rotation during passing of tornados over the north part of the Crimea on July 22, 2002 were investigated in this paper. Series of numerical experiments have been carried out with aim to research the key parameters caused features of development of dangerous events and their activity.
Within a framework of the hydromechanical model (HMM) of a tropical cyclone (TC) motion, the
“queasyprognostic” calculations of TC’s movement are carried out during the 2001 and 2003 year seasons. A
TC motion is defined by a large scale wind field and TC intensity. “Queasyprognostic” means, that an objective
analyses of a large scale wind field and an objective analyses of a TC intensity are used during an all life cycle
of a TC. The model contains parameters describing a size of a TC and a distribution of a tangential wind of a
TC. It is shown, that an appropriate choice for everyone TC of meanings of these parameters (constants) during
a “beforeprognostic” period, provides enough good agreement between an actual and calculated tracks of
various types for a “queasyprognostic” period up to 9 days. A duration of a “beforeprognostic” period in the
case of a real prognostic calculations corresponds to a period, for which information about a privies TC motion
is available. Thus, model parameters may be enough correctly defined during a “beforeprognostic” period. The
HMM may be taken as a base for a development of the new track prediction model.
This paper presents a new turbulence closure model based on the budget equations for the key second
moments: turbulent kinetic and potential energies: TKE and TPE (comprising the turbulent total energy:
TTE = TKE + TPE) and vertical turbulent fluxes of momentum and buoyancy (proportional to potential
temperature). Besides the concept of TTE, we essentially use the non-gradient correction to the traditional
buoyancy flux formulation (disregarded in the traditional formulations for the eddy conductivity). In the
proposed model, turbulent motions exist at any values of the gradient Richardson number, Ri. Instead of its
critical value separating – as usually assumed – the turbulent and the laminar regimes, the model, as well as
experimental data, reveals a transition interval, 0.1<Ri<1, which separates two regimes of principally
different nature but both turbulent: strong turbulence at Ri«1; and weak turbulence, capable of transporting
momentum but much less efficient in transporting heat, at Ri>1. Predictions from the model are consistent with
available data from atmospheric and laboratory experiments, direct numerical simulation (DNS) and large-eddy
simulation (LES).
The results of several numerical mesoscale verification experiments of computer system NOSTRADAMUS for radionuclide atmospheric dispersion and WRF model are presented on the base of comparison .with dataset.
During the last decade a new field of atmospheric modelling – the chemical weather forecasting (CWF) – is quickly developing and growing. However, in the most of the current studies and publications this field is considered in a simplified concept of the off-line running chemical transport models with operational NWP data as a driver. A new concept and methodology considering the chemical weather as two-way interacted meteorological weather and chemical composition of the atmosphere is suggested and discussed. The on-line integration of mesometeorological models and atmospheric aerosol and chemical transport models gives a possibility to utilize all meteorological 3D fields in the chemical transport model at each time step and to consider feedbacks of air pollution (e.g. urban aerosols) on meteorological processes/climate forcing and further on the chemical composition. This very promising way for future atmospheric simulation systems (as a part of and a step to Earth System Modelling) will lead to a new generation of models for meteorological, environmental and chemical weather forecasting. The methodology how to realise the suggested integrated CWF concept is demonstrated on example of the European Enviro–HIRLAM integrated system. Importance of different feedback mechanisms for CWF is also discussed in the paper.
The influence of the Tomsk city on the chemical and disperse composition of surface atmospheric aerosols has been estimated by means of carrying out several continuous measurement campaigns at two different sites (urban and rural). It is shown that the determining factors in formation of aerosol field over a moderate city are the prehistory of air masses and the activity of erosion processes in summer.
A study of air qualities has been done in 11 Siberian cities from Irkutsk (easternmost) to Novosibirsk (westernmost) in winter and summer with a mobile measurement station. It is shown that in winter a modern industrial city is not only a “heat island”, but also a “pollution island”. Admixtures concentration in centers of most cities is much higher than in their periphery. The exception is ozone, which is apparently destroyed by industrial emissions in the center and replenished in the periphery. In summer the local circulation is considerably weakened, and the difference between the parameter values for the center and periphery not always remains.
The paper presents the results of long-range atmospheric model developed specifically for the Southern hemisphere conditions. The model utilizes a combined Eulerian-Lagrangian description of the transport and diffusion of pollutants, calculation of their chemical transformations, dry and wet deposition as well as the pH value of precipitation.
Adaptation of an open numerical weather model ММ5 to geographical conditions of Ukraine is executed and the preliminary estimation of success forecasting of spatial pressure and temperature fields is analyzed for Ukraine territory and areas of nuclear power plants. Interaction of model ММ5 and diffusion model “LEDI” provides necessary operational efficiency in an estimation of distribution of radioactive emissions from the nuclear power plant.
Recent research suggests that the evolution of the stable ABL is still poorly understood. Certain advances in theory and modeling of the stable ABL (SABL) are assessed. Inclined strongly SABL is addressed. We show that a relatively thin and strongly SABL, as recently modeled using an improved “z-less” mixing length, can be successfully treated; the result is quietly extended to other types of SABL. Finally, a generalized “z-less” mixing length is proposed.
A method based on the evolution of the height of the convective boundary layer that has been successfully used for aggregation of sensible heat and momentum fluxes is here applied for aggregation of CO 2 fluxes over Zealand in Denmark. Inputs for the method are vertical profile measurements of CO 2 concentrations, standard measurements of the CO 2 concentration near the ground and successive radio-soundings. The aggregated fluxes of CO 2 represent a combination of agricultural and forest surface conditions.
The extraction and processing of minerals from surface mines and quarries can produce significant fugitive emissions as a result of site activities such as blasting, unpaved road haulage, loading, primary crushing and stockpiling. Uncontrolled fugitive dust emissions can present serious environmental, health, safety and operational issues impacting both site personnel and the wider community. Simulation technology is finding increasing use for the purposes of advanced warning of potential problem emissions in addition to providing a basis for future planning applications where demonstrable compliance with regulatory requirements are necessary. The initial re-entrainment and subsequent dispersion of fugitive dust presents a process complicated by the combination of the in pit topography, the surrounding natural topography and the dynamic nature of emissions from these sites. These factors impact upon the accuracy and reliability of the conventional Gaussian plume based computational prediction methods employed for regulatory compliance and IPPC applications. This paper proposes that optimal modelling of open pit emissions may be more accurately achieved by the use of a multi-scale predictive modelling approach utilising computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods for high resolution near source dispersion and conventional Gaussian based methods for far field dispersion modelling.
This paper presents a numerical based flow and dispersion analysis of a typical UK based open pit utilising CFD in conjunction with a conventional Gaussian plume based methods. Typical operating emissions and meteorological conditions are obtained from long term data records collected at a large operating quarry extraction operation in the UK. Emissions are modelled using a Lagrangian framework within conventional atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) profiles expressed as functions of turbulence and velocity parameters under assumed neutral conditions. Results are presented in terms of the impact of site topography on in pit retention as compared to the Gaussian based method.
The spatial and temporal variability of the meteorological (for temperature and wind), concentration and deposition fields resulted from hypothetical accidental releases occurred in the metropolitan area is evaluated on an example of the urban area of Copenhagen, Denmark. Dependence of these fields on the temporal variability of meteorological variables in the lower surface layer was estimated as a function of modified parameters.
A numerical simulation of flows in urban canopy is important from the view point of emergency preparedness and development of new schemes for parameterization of atmospheric boundary layer in NWP. This study performs the analysis of spatial averaged properties of flow around different urban like obstacles.
We have applied the MM5-CMAQ model to simulate the high concentrations in PM10 and PM2.5 during a winter episode (2003) in Central Europe. The selected period is January, 15 -April, 6, 2003. Values of daily mean concentrations up to 75 gm -3 are found on average of several monitoring stations in Northern Germany. This model evaluation shows that there is an increasing underestimation of primary and secondary species with increasing observed PM10. The high PM levels were observed under stagnant weather conditions, that are difficult to simulate. The MM5 is the PSU/NCAR non-hydrostatic meteorological model and CMAQ is the chemical dispersion model developed by EPA (US) used in this simulation with CBM-V. The TNO emission inventory was used to simulate the PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations with the MM5-CMAQ model. The results show a substantial underestimation of the elevated values in February and March, 2003. An increase on the PM2.5 emissions (five times) produces the expected results and the correlation coefficient increases slightly. The WRF/CHEM model results show an excellent performance with correct emission database. The main difference between MM5-CMAQ simulations and WRF/CHEM is the MOSAIC particle models and the “classical” MADE/SORGAM particle model used in WRF/CHEM and CMAQ respectively. MOSAIC seems to make a better job than MADE particle model for this particular episode.
The model estimation and analysis of existent hypothetical variants of extreme accidents in utilizing atomic submarines with radioactivity leakage to the atmosphere or see surface have been performed. The consequence of air pollutions for such accidents, by estimate, can found at the distance not far from the source. Unlike situation with pollution transport by atmospheric way, significant radionuclide concentrations after falling into the water surface may become a problem for areas of water at long distances from the place of accident.
Solution of the 3D turbulent diffusion equation, based on the alternating direction method, is proposed. The advantage of this scheme is its physical validity and high stability. The numerical algorithm, developed, allows including the computing unit of air pollution dispersion in the 3D unsteady boundary layer of the atmosphere.
The new decision of equation of turbulent diffusion, which takes into account co-operation of coefficients of turbulent diffusion and speed of wind in the direction of axes of the system of co-ordinates, is got. The formulas of calculations allow to get the fields of concentrations at any states of thermodynamic of atmosphere and speeds of wind, including at a calm without approximations of scales of diffusion from distance.